Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Prediction

UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round
FT
Post on X
AI call Fenerbahçe to win
65%
20%
14%
Home Win · 1.42 Draw · 5.40 Away Win · 9.40

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz prediction: Sportiko gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance of winning, Sturm Graz 14% and the draw 20%. Last updated 5 Aug 2026, 19:59.

Timeline

Talisca assist: Kerem Aktürkoğlu
9' 1–0
21'
Jon Gorenc Stanković Yellow Card
Jayden Oosterwolde ⇄ Archie Brown
30'
Mason Greenwood assist: Marco Asensio
45' 2–0
HT 2–0
46'
Szymon Włodarczyk ⇄ Axel Kayombo
58'
Jurgen Heil Yellow Card
64'
Simon Seidl ⇄ Gizo Mamageishvili
64'
Luca Weinhandl ⇄ Ryan Fosso
64'
Seedy Jatta ⇄ Nelson Weiper
65'
Axel Kayombo Yellow Card
Mason Greenwood ⇄ Fred
69'
Marco Asensio ⇄ İrfan Can Kahveci
69'
Kerem Aktürkoğlu ⇄ Oğuz Aydın
85'
Nélson Semedo ⇄ Mert Müldür
85'
87'
Jacob Hödl ⇄ Belmin Beganović
FT 2–0
Fenerbahçe

Match Stats

Sturm Graz
72% Ball Possession 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
15 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Goal 1
2 Shots off Goal 1
3 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 3
5 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Corner Kicks 2
4 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 19
0 Yellow Cards 3
Red Cards
1 Goalkeeper Saves 8
571 Total passes 214
515 Passes accurate 160
90% Passes % 75%
goals_prevented
Fenerbahçe
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
37 Milan Škriniar D 8.9 91' 78 (74%) 9
10 Marco Asensio M 7.7 69' 1 39 (34%) 1
91 N'Golo Kanté M 7.3 91' 62 (53%) 5
15 N. Aké D 7.3 91' 1 81 (77%) 2
6 Mattéo Guendouzi M 7.3 91' 68 (61%)
11 Mason Greenwood M 7.3 69' 1 2 43 (41%)
9 Kerem Aktürkoğlu M 7.2 85' 1 2 25 (20%) 3
94 Talisca F 7.2 91' 1 6 13 (10%)
3 Archie Brown D 7.2 61' 35 (33%)
17 İrfan Can Kahveci M 6.9 22' 7 (7%) 1
27 Nélson Semedo D 6.9 85' 50 (46%) 2
7 Fred M 6.9 22' 10 (10%) 1
34 Mert Günok G 6.6 91' 38 (29%)
24 Jayden Oosterwolde D 6.6 30' 17 (15%) 2
18 Mert Müldür D 6' 3 (3%)
70 Oğuz Aydın F 6' 1 2 (2%)
Sturm Graz
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
53 Daniil Khudyakov G 7.9 91' 18 (12%)
15 Gizo Mamageishvili M 7.3 27' 8 (8%) 2
4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M 7.2 91' 37 (29%) 3
2 Jeyland Mitchell D 6.7 91' 22 (19%)
80 Ryan Fosso M 6.7 27' 8 (6%) 1
18 Emran Soglo D 6.5 91' 26 (22%) 2
5 Albert Vallci D 6.3 91' 24 (12%) 2
39 Luca Weinhandl M 6.3 64' 7 (5%)
17 Szymon Włodarczyk F 6.3 45' 2 (1%)
44 Nelson Weiper F 6.3 27' 1 3 (3%)
28 Jurgen Heil D 6.2 91' 1 19 (16%) 2
19 Simon Seidl M 6.2 64' 11 (6%) 1
43 Jacob Hödl M 5.9 87' 15 (10%) 3
20 Seedy Jatta F 5.9 64' 10 (9%)
11 Axel Kayombo F 5.6 46' 4 (2%)
26 Belmin Beganović F 4'
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Confidence Medium (65%)

At a glance

Our lean
Fenerbahçe to win
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Fenerbahçe
WDWWW
Sturm Graz
LDWWW
Last 2 meetings Fenerbahçe · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

Fenerbahçe faces Sturm Graz in a UEFA Champions League clash on August 4, 2026. Fenerbahçe has shown strong form in recent domestic matches, boasting an impressive home record with a solid goal-scoring average. In contrast, Sturm Graz will look to exploit any defensive weaknesses, as they have been effective on the counterattack in previous fixtures. The outcome may hinge on Fenerbahçe's ability to control possession and create scoring opportunities against Sturm Graz's organized defense.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Fenerbahçe leads 2-0. Win probability: 98.6%. Comeback chance: 1.4%.

45' Goal 85% sure

Fenerbahçe now leads 2-0 with 94.1% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 79.4%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 2-0. Fenerbahçe leads. Win probability: 94.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 79.4%.

10' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Fenerbahçe win: 77.8%. BTTS: 67.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
65%
10%
Draw
20%
45%
Away
14%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Fenerbahçe
Talisca 3 gls
Sturm Graz
Luca Weinhandl 1 gls
J. Gorenc Stankovič 1 gls
J. Mitchell 1 gls

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Head to Head: Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

1 Fenerbahçe Wins
1 Draws
0 Sturm Graz Wins
Date Home Score Away
03 Aug 2017 Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Sturm Graz
27 Jul 2017 Sturm Graz 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Aug H Sturm Graz W 2 - 0
29 Jul A Gornik Zabrze D 1 - 1
21 Jul H Gornik Zabrze W 1 - 0
14 Jul A Lask Linz W 1 - 2
08 Jul A Admira Wacker W 0 - 5

Sturm Graz — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Aug A Fenerbahçe L 2 - 0
01 Aug A WSG Wattens D 1 - 1
28 Jul A Heart Of Midlothian W 0 - 2
24 Jul A Seekirchen W 0 - 3
21 Jul H Heart Of Midlothian W 4 - 0

UEFA Champions League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Fenerbahçe

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ismail Kartal
34 Günok
24 Oosterwolde
15 Aké
37 Škriniar
27 Semedo
91 Kanté
6 Guendouzi
9 Aktürkoğlu
10 Asensio
11 Greenwood
94 Talisca

Starting XI

# Player Pos
34 Mert Günok G
27 Nélson Semedo D
37 Milan Škriniar D
15 Nathan Aké D
24 Jayden Oosterwolde D
6 Mattéo Guendouzi M
91 N'Golo Kanté M
11 Mason Greenwood M
10 Marco Asensio M
9 Kerem Aktürkoğlu M
94 Talisca F

Substitutes

3 Archie Brown D
31 Ederson G
4 Çağlar Söyüncü D
14 Yiğit Efe Demir D
18 Mert Müldür D
5 İsmail Yüksek M
7 Fred M
17 İrfan Can Kahveci M
20 Anthony Musaba F
70 Oğuz Aydın F
19 Vedat Muriqi F
26 Sidiki Cherif F

Sturm Graz

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
53 Khudyakov
18 Soglo
2 Mitchell
5 Vallci
28 Heil
19 Seidl
4 Stanković
39 Weinhandl
43 Hödl
20 Jatta
17 Włodarczyk

Starting XI

# Player Pos
53 Daniil Khudyakov G
28 Jurgen Heil D
5 Albert Vallci D
2 Jeyland Mitchell D
18 Emran Soglo D
43 Jacob Hödl M
39 Luca Weinhandl M
4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M
19 Simon Seidl M
17 Szymon Włodarczyk F
20 Seedy Jatta F

Substitutes

11 Axel Kayombo F
15 Gizo Mamageishvili M
80 Ryan Fosso M
44 Nelson Weiper F
32 Christoph Wiener-Pucher G
22 Ammar Helac G
21 Petar Petrović D
23 Arjan Malić D
27 Luís Balbo D
30 Paul Koller D
40 Julian Halwachs M
26 Belmin Beganović F

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