Valencia vs Celta Vigo Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 30

Post on X

Celta Vigo

Away

Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

AI call Valencia or draw

45%

26%

29%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Valencia vs Celta Vigo prediction: Sportiko gives Valencia a 45% chance of winning, Celta Vigo 29% and the draw 26%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 05:45.

Match Report

Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo

Valencia made the brighter start, taking the lead through a 12th-minute goal and carrying that advantage into half-time. The scoreline looked to vindicate the pre-match picture — our AI model had rated a Valencia win as the most likely outcome at 45%, though that call would ultimately prove wrong.

Celta Vigo emerged from the interval with clear intent, levelling and then taking the lead with goals in the 56th and 60th minutes. Both sides made sweeping changes around the hour mark, with a combined eight substitutions reshaping the contest. Celta extended their advantage to 3–1 through an 81st-minute strike, and despite Valencia pulling one back in the 90th minute, there was no time for a comeback.

Celta's dominance was reflected in the statistics — they controlled 58% of possession and edged the expected goals metric at 1.05 to 0.80. Valencia's six corner kicks to none illustrated their late pressure, but Celta's clinical finishing across the second half proved the decisive factor.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

12' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 43'

Yellow Card

▮ 44'

Yellow Card

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

⚽ 1–1 56'

⚽ 1–2 60'

63' ⇄

▮ 71'

Yellow Card

⇄ 71'

⇄ Borja Iglesias

78' ⇄

⚽ 1–3 81'

Yellow Card

84' ▮

⇄ 88'

90' ⚽ 2–3

FT 2–3

Valencia

Match Stats

Celta Vigo

42% Ball Possession 58%

0.80 Expected Goals (xG) 1.05

13 Total Shots 9

4 Shots on Goal 5

7 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 1

7 Shots insidebox 6

6 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 0

0 Offsides 2

14 Fouls 21

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

345 Total passes 500

281 Passes accurate 436

81% Passes % 87%

-1.28 goals_prevented -1.28

Valencia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
2 Guido Rodríguez M	9.5	90'	2	–	2	42 (37%)	5
6 Umar Sadiq F	7.3	27'	–	1	2	6 (4%)	–
11 Luis Rioja M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	31 (26%)	2
9 Hugo Duro F	6.9	63'	–	–	–	6 (2%)	1
23 Filip Ugrinić M	6.7	27'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	1
15 Lucas Beltrán M	6.7	27'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
17 Largie Ramazani F	6.6	90'	–	–	1	15 (12%)	1
12 Thierry Correia D	6.6	27'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	1
7 Arnaut Danjuma F	6.6	12'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
10 André Almeida M	6.5	63'	–	–	1	25 (22%)	–
24 Eray Cömert D	6.3	90'	–	–	3	50 (39%)	3
4 Unai Núñez D	6.3	63'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	2
14 José Luis Gayà D	6.3	78'	–	–	1	23 (15%)	1
1 Stole Dimitrievski G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	33 (26%)	–
8 Javier Guerra M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	1
5 César Tárrega D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	1

Celta Vigo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Fer López M	7.9	45'	1	–	2	18 (13%)	1
19 Williot Swedberg M	7.9	45'	1	1	2	14 (12%)	1
6 Ilaix Moriba M	7.5	90'	1	1	1	41 (34%)	4
22 Hugo Sotelo M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	57 (55%)	2
39 Jones El-Abdellaoui F	6.9	45'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
5 Sergio Carreira M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	61 (54%)	–
18 Pablo Durán F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
23 Hugo Álvarez F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	32 (31%)	2
7 Borja Iglesias F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
32 Javi Rodríguez D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	42 (37%)	1
3 Óscar Mingueza M	6.5	88'	–	–	–	46 (40%)	–
20 Marcos Alonso D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	81 (71%)	–
29 Yoel Lago D	6.3	9'	–	–	–	–	1
4 Joseph Aidoo D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	48 (48%)	1
13 Ionuț Radu G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	25 (12%)	–
9 Ferran Jutglà F	5.9	71'	–	–	3	19 (15%)	–

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Valencia or draw

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Valencia

LWLLL

Celta Vigo

WLDDD

Last 3 meetings Valencia · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Valencia hosts Celta Vigo on April 5, 2026. Valencia has shown resilience at home, boasting a solid record, with a 60% win rate at the Mestalla this season. Conversely, Celta Vigo struggles on the road, evidenced by a mere 30% win rate in away fixtures. Key player performances will be crucial; Valencia's forwards have consistently outperformed in recent matches, while Celta's defense has been vulnerable to set-pieces. Given Valencia's home advantage and superior current form, they are likely to secure a vital three points in this contest.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Celta Vigo goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	8	5	2	1
1	11	12	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Valencia goals · most likely 1–1 (12.3%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Valencia vs Celta Vigo

1 Valencia Wins

1 Draws

1 Celta Vigo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Aug 2026	Valencia	0 - 0	Celta Vigo
03 Jan 2026	Celta Vigo	4 - 1	Valencia
02 Feb 2025	Valencia	2 - 1	Celta Vigo

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Valencia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
15 Sep	A Alaves	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	A Sevilla	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Barcelona	L	0 - 5
30 Aug	A Deportivo La Coruna	L	3 - 1

Celta Vigo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	5 - 0
16 Sep	A Omonia Nicosia	L	1 - 0
13 Sep	H Malaga	D	1 - 1
07 Sep	A Getafe	D	1 - 1
03 Sep	A Real Sociedad	D	0 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Valencia

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Carlos Corberan

1 Dimitrievski

14 Gaya

24 Comert

5 Tarrega

4 Nunez

10 Almeida

2 Rodriguez

8 Guerra

11 Rioja

17 Ramazani

9 Duro

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. Dimitrievski	G
4	U. Nunez	D
5	C. Tarrega	D
24	E. Comert	D
14	J. Gaya	D
11	L. Rioja	M
8	J. Guerra	M
2	G. Rodriguez	M
10	A. Almeida	M
9	H. Duro	F
17	L. Ramazani	F

Substitutes

13	C. Rivero	G
20	Renzo Saravia	D
22	B. Santamaria	M
6	U. Sadiq	F
7	A. Danjuma	F
12	T. Rendall	D
19	D. Raba	F
23	F. Ugrinic	M
16	D. Lopez	F
18	Pepelu	M
21	J. Vazquez	D
15	L. Beltran	M

Celta Vigo

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Claudio Giraldez

13 Radu

20 Alonso

4 Aidoo

32 Rodriguez

5 Carreira

6 Moriba

22 Sotelo

3 Mingueza

23 Alvarez

18 Duran

9 Jutgla

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	I. Radu	G
32	J. Rodriguez	D
4	J. Aidoo	D
20	M. Alonso	D
3	O. Mingueza	M
22	H. Sotelo	M
6	I. Moriba	M
5	S. Carreira	M
9	F. Jutgla	F
18	P. Duran	F
23	H. Alvarez	F

Substitutes

1	I. Villar	G
11	F. Cervi	M
19	W. Swedberg	M
39	J. El Abdellaoui	F
12	M. Fernandez	D
36	A. Antanon	M
7	B. Iglesias	F
17	J. Rueda	D
14	A. Nunez	D
24	C. Dominguez	D
29	Y. Lago	D
8	F. Lopez	M