Drogheda United vs Derry City Prediction
FT
Sullivan & Lambe Park, Drogheda
AI call
Derry City or draw
28%
28%
45%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Drogheda United vs Derry City prediction: Sportiko gives Drogheda United a 28% chance of winning, Derry City 45% and the draw 28%. Last updated 16 Oct 2026, 20:38.
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Timeline
Brandon Kavanagh
7'
⚽
1–0
▮
23'
Nick Twisk
Yellow Card
HT 1–0
Edwin Agbaje
Yellow Card
62'
▮
Thomas Oluwa
Yellow Card
62'
▮
⇄
63'
Kévin Santos
⇄ Darragh Burns
⇄
63'
Tyler Smith
⇄ James Clarke
Thomas Oluwa
⇄ Mark Doyle
69'
⇄
Brandon Kavanagh
⇄ Alfie Bates
69'
⇄
⇄
75'
Conor Barr
⇄ G. Whyte
Shane Farell
⇄ Jago Godden
77'
⇄
▮
79'
Jamie Stott
Yellow Card
Mark Doyle
83'
⚽
2–0
Warren Davis
⇄ Keegan Ancelin
87'
⇄
Jago Godden
Yellow Card
90+2'
▮
FT 2–0
Drogheda United
Match Stats
Derry City
21%
Ball Possession
79%
0.92
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
4
Total Shots
30
2
Shots on Goal
5
1
Shots off Goal
12
1
Blocked Shots
13
1
Shots insidebox
9
3
Shots outsidebox
21
4
Corner Kicks
10
0
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
0
164
Total passes
616
76
Passes accurate
514
7
Free Kicks
7
Drogheda United
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Brandon Kavanagh M | 8.2 | 69' | 1 | – | 2 | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 44 Fynn Michael Cordell Talley G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (4%) | – |
| 14 Mark Doyle F | 7.5 | 21' | 1 | – | 1 | 2 (1%) | – |
| 22 Conor Keeley D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (10%) | 1 |
| 4 Andrew Quinn D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 13 (6%) | 2 |
| 5 Leo Burney D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | 1 |
| 3 Conor Kane M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | 4 |
| 15 Alfie Bates M | 6.9 | 21' | – | – | 1 | 4 (1%) | 1 |
| 17 Shane Farell M | 6.6 | 77' | – | – | – | 16 (7%) | 1 |
| 6 Jago Godden M | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | – | 2 | – |
| 8 Ethan O'Brien M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (12%) | 2 |
| 9 Keegan Ancelin F | 6.5 | 3' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 24 Warren Davis M | 6.4 | 87' | – | – | – | 7 (3%) | 6 |
| 11 Thomas Oluwa F | 6.2 | 69' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | – |
| 2 Edwin Agbaje M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (9%) | 4 |
Derry City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Patrick McClean D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 94 (75%) | 5 |
| 22 Conor Barr M | 7.2 | 75' | – | – | 4 | 64 (56%) | – |
| 14 Ellis Chapman M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 63 (53%) | 1 |
| 7 Michael Duffy F | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 8 | 43 (37%) | – |
| 21 Kévin Santos F | 6.7 | 63' | – | – | 4 | 29 (25%) | 1 |
| 17 Nick Twisk M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 70 (61%) | 1 |
| 4 Jamie Stott D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 54 (48%) | 2 |
| 29 Tyler Smith F | 6.4 | 63' | – | – | 3 | 12 (11%) | – |
| 19 Brandon Fleming D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 79 (59%) | 1 |
| 13 Tom Norcott G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (29%) | – |
| 23 Cameron Dummigan D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 53 (40%) | 1 |
| 15 James Clarke M | 6.1 | 27' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 11 G. Whyte M | 6.0 | 15' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 12 Darragh Burns M | 5.9 | 27' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (45%)
At a glance
Our lean
Derry City or draw
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Drogheda United
WWLWL
Derry City
DWWLW
Last 2 meetings
Drogheda United · 0W 1D 1L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
28%
45%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
45%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Drogheda United
M. Doyle
10 gls
B. Kavanagh
6 gls
Derry City
M. Duffy
11 gls
J. Clarke
7 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Drogheda United vs Derry City
0
Drogheda United Wins
1
Draws
1
Derry City Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | Derry City | 2 - 0 | Drogheda United |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Derry City | 2 - 2 | Drogheda United |
Drogheda United — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A UCD | W | 1 - 2 |
| 30 Oct | H Galway United | W | 2 - 0 |
| 23 Oct | A Waterford | L | 3 - 1 |
| 16 Oct | H Derry City | W | 2 - 0 |
| 08 Oct | A Shamrock Rovers | L | 3 - 1 |
Derry City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | A Sligo Rovers | D | 2 - 2 |
| 23 Oct | H Dundalk | W | 2 - 1 |
| 19 Oct | H St Patrick's Athl. | W | 1 - 0 |
| 16 Oct | A Drogheda United | L | 2 - 0 |
| 10 Oct | A Galway United | W | 0 - 2 |
Premier Division Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
36 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 68 |
| 2 |
Bohemians
|
36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 44 | +19 | 65 |
| 3 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 31 | +24 | 60 |
| 4 |
Shelbourne
|
36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 49 |
| 5 |
Derry City
|
36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 48 |
| 6 |
Dundalk
|
36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 59 | -4 | 45 |
| 7 |
Waterford
|
36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 43 |
| 8 |
Galway United
|
36 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 |
Drogheda United
|
36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 40 |
| 10 |
Sligo Rovers
|
36 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 66 | -38 | 25 |
Derry City
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Tamás Bódog
13
Norcott
19
Fleming
3
McClean
4
Stott
23
Dummigan
14
Chapman
17
Twisk
22
Barr
7
Duffy
29
Smith
21
Santos
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tom Norcott | G |
| 23 | C. Dummigan | D |
| 4 | J. Stott | D |
| 3 | Patrick McClean | D |
| 19 | B. Fleming | D |
| 22 | C. Barr | M |
| 17 | N. Twisk | M |
| 14 | E. Chapman | M |
| 21 | Kévin Santos | F |
| 29 | T. Smith | F |
| 7 | M. Duffy | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | G. Whyte | M |
| 15 | J. Clarke | M |
| 32 | T. Doherty | F |
| 25 | Christy Grogan | D |
| 24 | Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D |
| 1 | B. Maher | G |
| 10 | D. Markey | M |
| 12 | D. Burns | M |
| 34 | C. O'Donnell | M |
Drogheda United
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: K. Doherty
44
Talley
5
Burney
22
Keeley
4
Quinn
3
Kane
17
Farrell
8
O'Brien
2
Agbaje
24
Davis
10
Kavanagh
11
Oluwa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Fynn Michael Cordell Talley | G |
| 4 | A. Quinn | D |
| 22 | C. Keeley | D |
| 5 | Leo Burney | D |
| 2 | E. Agbaje | M |
| 8 | Ethan O'Brien | M |
| 17 | S. Farrell | M |
| 3 | C. Kane | M |
| 10 | B. Kavanagh | M |
| 24 | W. Davis | M |
| 11 | T. Oluwa | F |
Substitutes
| 15 | A. Bates | M |
| 9 | K. Ancelin | F |
| 18 | J. Bolger | D |
| 31 | K. Cruise | D |
| 14 | M. Doyle | F |
| 6 | J. Godden | M |
| 36 | theo hennessy | G |
| 32 | D. Mare | D |
| 25 | R. Markey | F |