Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction
FT
AI call
Waterford or draw
39%
27%
35%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Waterford vs Dundalk prediction: Sportiko gives Waterford a 39% chance of winning, Dundalk 35% and the draw 27%. Last updated 11 Sep 2026, 20:37.
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
21'
John Mahon
Own Goal
▮
31'
Keith Buckley
Yellow Card
Hayden Cann
assist: Benny Couto
37'
⚽
1–1
HT 1–1
▮
56'
Shane Tracey
Yellow Card
⇄
60'
Shane Tracey
⇄ Bobby Burns
⇄
61'
J. Wilson
⇄ H. Warren
⇄
61'
Leonardo Gaxha
⇄ Declan McDaid
⇄
61'
Keith Buckley
⇄ Aodh Dervin
▮
65'
H. Warren
Yellow Card
⇄
72'
Egor Vassenin
⇄ Harry Groome
E. McLaughlin
Yellow Card
78'
▮
▮
90'
R. Teahan
Yellow Card
FT 1–1
Waterford
Match Stats
Dundalk
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Goal
2
7
Shots off Goal
6
3
Blocked Shots
2
17
Shots insidebox
3
0
Shots outsidebox
7
9
Corner Kicks
1
4
Offsides
1
16
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7
250
Total passes
396
140
Passes accurate
276
10
Free Kicks
16
Waterford
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Benny Couto D | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 28 (15%) | 1 |
| 16 Hayden Cann D | 6.8 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 27 (17%) | 1 |
| 13 Kevin Long D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 12 (8%) | 2 |
| 9 Pádraig Amond F | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 24 (12%) | – |
| 18 Tom Lonergan F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 6 | 35 (24%) | – |
| 20 Jørgen Voilås M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 18 (11%) | 1 |
| 10 Conan Noonan M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (15%) | – |
| 7 Noah Mawene M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (10%) | 3 |
| 5 John Mahon D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (8%) | 1 |
| 8 E. McLaughlin M | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 18 (12%) | – |
| 1 Stephen McMullan G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (8%) | – |
Dundalk
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Enda Minogue G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (7%) | – |
| 17 Shane Tracey M | 6.9 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 39 (34%) | – |
| 11 R. Teahan M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 32 (26%) | – |
| 18 Keith Buckley M | 6.7 | 61' | – | – | – | 37 (34%) | 2 |
| 3 Bobby Burns D | 6.6 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 16 (9%) | 1 |
| 7 Daryl Horgan M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 35 (27%) | – |
| 8 Harry Groome M | 6.5 | 18' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | 2 |
| 6 Aodh Dervin M | 6.4 | 29' | – | – | 1 | 15 (12%) | – |
| 9 Cian Dillon F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (15%) | – |
| 27 Declan McDaid M | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | 1 | 12 (7%) | 1 |
| 10 Leonardo Gaxha M | 6.2 | 61' | – | – | – | 24 (15%) | 2 |
| 16 Egor Vassenin D | 6.2 | 72' | – | – | 1 | 30 (22%) | 1 |
| 4 M. Animasahun D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (14%) | – |
| 5 H. Warren D | 6.0 | 29' | – | – | – | 10 (2%) | – |
| 44 Tom Grivosti D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (28%) | 1 |
| 31 J. Wilson D | 5.8 | 61' | – | – | – | 30 (20%) | 2 |
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Confidence
Low (39%)
At a glance
Our lean
Waterford or draw
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Waterford
LDDWW
Dundalk
LLDLW
Last 2 meetings
Waterford · 1W 0D 1L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
39%
45%
Draw
27%
45%
Away
35%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Waterford
T. Lonergan
14 gls
P. Amond
9 gls
Dundalk
D. Horgan
10 gls
G. Arubi
7 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Waterford vs Dundalk
1
Waterford Wins
0
Draws
1
Dundalk Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | Dundalk | 2 - 3 | Waterford |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Dundalk | 5 - 0 | Waterford |
Waterford — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Shamrock Rovers | L | 3 - 2 |
| 14 Sep | H Derry City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 11 Sep | H Dundalk | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | H Sligo Rovers | W | 3 - 0 |
| 28 Aug | A St Patrick's Athl. | W | 0 - 2 |
Dundalk — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Shelbourne | L | 2 - 3 |
| 14 Sep | H St Patrick's Athl. | L | 0 - 4 |
| 11 Sep | A Waterford | D | 1 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Derry City | L | 4 - 2 |
| 28 Aug | A Drogheda United | W | 2 - 3 |
Premier Division Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 2 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 3 |
Bohemians
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 4 |
Derry City
|
32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 5 |
Dundalk
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 |
Shelbourne
|
31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 39 |
| 7 |
Galway United
|
31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 37 |
| 8 |
Waterford
|
32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 |
Drogheda United
|
32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 |
Sligo Rovers
|
32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
Dundalk
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: C. Kilduff
1
Minogue
16
Vassenin
44
Grivosti
4
Animasahun
31
Wilson
17
Tracey
18
Buckley
7
Horgan
11
Teahan
10
Gaxha
9
Dillon
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Minogue | G |
| 31 | J. Wilson | D |
| 4 | M. Animasahun | D |
| 44 | T. Grivosti | D |
| 16 | E. Vassenin | D |
| 18 | K. Buckley | M |
| 17 | S. Tracey | M |
| 10 | Leonardo Gaxha | M |
| 11 | R. Teahan | M |
| 7 | D. Horgan | M |
| 9 | C. Dillon | F |
Substitutes
| 3 | B. Burns | D |
| 6 | A. Dervin | M |
| 27 | D. McDaid | M |
| 12 | L. Mulligan | D |
| 20 | S. Safaei | G |
| 19 | Sean Spaight | D |
| 5 | H. Warren | D |
| 23 | A. M. Keogh | M |
| 8 | H. Groome | M |
Waterford
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: G. Coughlan
1
McMullan
3
Couto
13
Long
5
Mahon
16
Cann
7
Mawene
10
Noonan
8
McLaughlin
20
Voilås
9
Amond
18
Lonergan
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. McMullan | G |
| 16 | H. Cann | D |
| 5 | J. Mahon | D |
| 13 | K. Long | D |
| 3 | Benny Couto | D |
| 20 | J. Voilås | M |
| 8 | E. McLaughlin | M |
| 10 | C. Noonan | M |
| 7 | N. Mawene | M |
| 18 | T. Lonergan | F |
| 9 | P. Amond | F |
Substitutes
| 32 | G. Amedu | D |
| 6 | J. Ashton | D |
| 11 | T. Coyle | F |
| 21 | Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty | G |
| 17 | J. Faria | M |
| 15 | L. Heeney | M |
| 27 | D. McMenamy | M |
| 12 | B. McKenzie | D |
| 56 | A. Brennan | D |