Waterford vs Derry City Prediction
FT
AI call
Derry City or draw
33%
28%
39%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Waterford vs Derry City prediction: Sportiko gives Waterford a 33% chance of winning, Derry City 39% and the draw 28%. Last updated 14 Sep 2026, 20:36.
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
9'
Adam O'Reilly
assist: James Clarke
▮
11'
Adam O'Reilly
Yellow Card
▮
45'
James Clarke
Yellow Card
E. McLaughlin
45'
⚽
1–1
HT 1–1
⚽
1–2
51'
Michael Duffy
assist: Brandon Fleming
Pádraig Amond
assist: Benny Couto
57'
⚽
2–2
▮
64'
Liam Boyce
Yellow Card
E. McLaughlin
⇄ Samuel Glenfield
64'
⇄
Noah Mawene
⇄ Luke Heeney
64'
⇄
Conan Noonan
⇄ Dean McMenamy
64'
⇄
Samuel Glenfield
Yellow Card
73'
▮
⇄
73'
James Clarke
⇄ Ellis Chapman
▮
74'
Darragh Burns
Yellow Card
⇄
76'
Darragh Burns
⇄ Kévin Santos
▮
88'
Yellow Card
▮
88'
Christy Grogan
Yellow Card
FT 2–2
Waterford
Match Stats
Derry City
39%
Ball Possession
61%
16
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots off Goal
3
4
Blocked Shots
9
9
Shots insidebox
7
6
Shots outsidebox
7
7
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
2
17
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
238
Total passes
382
130
Passes accurate
293
12
Free Kicks
16
Waterford
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Benny Couto D | 7.9 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 20 (14%) | 2 |
| 9 Pádraig Amond F | 7.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 14 (6%) | – |
| 8 E. McLaughlin M | 7.1 | 64' | 1 | – | 2 | 15 (10%) | 1 |
| 20 Jørgen Voilås M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 14 (10%) | 1 |
| 10 Conan Noonan M | 6.4 | 64' | – | – | 1 | 9 (7%) | 1 |
| 7 Noah Mawene M | 6.3 | 64' | – | – | – | 27 (17%) | 5 |
| 27 Dean McMenamy M | 6.2 | 26' | – | – | 2 | 7 (2%) | 1 |
| 15 Luke Heeney M | 6.2 | 26' | – | – | – | 9 (4%) | 1 |
| 1 Stephen McMullan G | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (10%) | – |
| 13 Kevin Long D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 32 (22%) | – |
| 5 John Mahon D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (11%) | 3 |
| 19 Samuel Glenfield M | 5.9 | 26' | – | – | 1 | 7 (4%) | 1 |
| 18 Tom Lonergan F | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 9 (3%) | – |
| 16 Hayden Cann D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 21 (10%) | 4 |
Derry City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Michael Duffy F | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 36 (26%) | 3 |
| 8 Adam O'Reilly M | 7.5 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 30 (24%) | – |
| 3 Patrick McClean D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (40%) | 2 |
| 13 Tom Norcott G | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (21%) | – |
| 23 Cameron Dummigan D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 52 (42%) | 2 |
| 27 Liam Boyce F | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (21%) | 1 |
| 15 James Clarke F | 6.4 | 73' | – | 1 | 2 | 30 (23%) | 2 |
| 12 Darragh Burns M | 6.4 | 76' | – | – | – | 26 (20%) | 1 |
| 19 Brandon Fleming M | 6.3 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 36 (27%) | 2 |
| 17 Nick Twisk M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 24 (18%) | 2 |
| 14 Ellis Chapman M | 6.0 | 17' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 21 Kévin Santos M | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | 1 |
| 4 Jamie Stott D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (29%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (39%)
At a glance
Our lean
Derry City or draw
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Waterford
LDDWW
Derry City
WDWWD
Last 2 meetings
Waterford · 1W 0D 1L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
33%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
39%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Waterford
T. Lonergan
14 gls
P. Amond
9 gls
Derry City
M. Duffy
10 gls
J. Clarke
6 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Waterford vs Derry City
1
Waterford Wins
0
Draws
1
Derry City Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jul 2026 | Derry City | 2 - 4 | Waterford |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Derry City | 3 - 2 | Waterford |
Waterford — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Shamrock Rovers | L | 3 - 2 |
| 14 Sep | H Derry City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 11 Sep | H Dundalk | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | H Sligo Rovers | W | 3 - 0 |
| 28 Aug | A St Patrick's Athl. | W | 0 - 2 |
Derry City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Galway United | W | 1 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | A Waterford | D | 2 - 2 |
| 11 Sep | A Shelbourne | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Dundalk | W | 4 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | H Shamrock Rovers | D | 3 - 3 |
Premier Division Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 2 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 3 |
Bohemians
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 4 |
Derry City
|
32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 5 |
Dundalk
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 |
Shelbourne
|
31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 39 |
| 7 |
Galway United
|
31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 37 |
| 8 |
Waterford
|
32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 |
Drogheda United
|
32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 |
Sligo Rovers
|
32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
Derry City
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Emiliano Té
13
Norcott
3
McClean
4
Stott
23
Dummigan
19
Fleming
8
O'Reilly
17
Twisk
12
Burns
15
Clarke
7
Duffy
27
Boyce
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tom Norcott | G |
| 23 | C. Dummigan | D |
| 4 | J. Stott | D |
| 3 | Patrick McClean | D |
| 12 | D. Burns | M |
| 17 | N. Twisk | M |
| 8 | A. O'Reilly | M |
| 19 | B. Fleming | M |
| 27 | L. Boyce | F |
| 7 | M. Duffy | F |
| 15 | J. Clarke | F |
Substitutes
| 22 | C. Barr | D |
| 14 | E. Chapman | M |
| 25 | Christy Grogan | D |
| 24 | Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D |
| 1 | B. Maher | G |
| 21 | Kévin Santos | M |
| 29 | T. Smith | F |
| 28 | J. Olayinka | M |
| 11 | G. Whyte | M |
Waterford
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: G. Coughlan
1
McMullan
3
Couto
13
Long
5
Mahon
16
Cann
10
Noonan
7
Mawene
8
McLaughlin
20
Voilås
9
Amond
18
Lonergan
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. McMullan | G |
| 16 | H. Cann | D |
| 5 | J. Mahon | D |
| 13 | K. Long | D |
| 3 | Benny Couto | D |
| 20 | J. Voilås | M |
| 8 | E. McLaughlin | M |
| 7 | N. Mawene | M |
| 10 | C. Noonan | M |
| 18 | T. Lonergan | F |
| 9 | P. Amond | F |
Substitutes
| 27 | D. McMenamy | M |
| 56 | A. Brennan | D |
| 6 | J. Ashton | D |
| 32 | G. Amedu | D |
| 21 | Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty | G |
| 19 | S. Glenfield | M |
| 15 | L. Heeney | M |
| 17 | J. Faria | M |
| 12 | B. McKenzie | D |