Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia Prediction

I Liga · Regular Season - 9

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Pogoń Siedlce

Home

2 : 1

HT 1 - 1

Arka Gdynia

Away

Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce

AI call Arka Gdynia or draw

28%

29%

42%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia prediction: Sportiko gives Pogoń Siedlce a 28% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia 42% and the draw 29%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 14:25.

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Over 1.5 Goals 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
1st Half Home or Draw 74%

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Timeline

39' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

42' ▮

⚽ 1–1 44'

⇄ 45+1'

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

▮ 51'

Yellow Card

71' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 72'

77' ⇄

⇄ 83'

87' ⇄

▮ 90+1'

Yellow Card

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean

Arka Gdynia or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Pogoń Siedlce

WDWWL

Arka Gdynia

LLDWD

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Pogoń Siedlce leads 2-1. Win probability: 82.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.7%.

73' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Pogoń Siedlce win: 80.6%. BTTS: 100%.

59' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Pogoń Siedlce win: 72.1%. BTTS: 100%.

53' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Pogoń Siedlce win: 69.6%. BTTS: 100%.

45' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 42.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

28%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

42%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arka Gdynia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	9	8	4	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Pogoń Siedlce goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

29%

Home Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

29%

Home Win

28%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

60% Away (No Draw) 40% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 28% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	9.2%	7.9%	3.8%	1.4%
1	7.0%	14.1%	9.0%	4.4%	1.6%
2	4.9%	7.2%	5.2%	2.5%	0.9%
3	1.9%	2.7%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Pogoń Siedlce	Draw	Arka Gdynia
Pogoń Siedlce	19.6%	6.0%	3.3%
Draw	8.8%	18.1%	17.9%
Arka Gdynia	1.0%	3.1%	22.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Pogoń Siedlce — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Arka Gdynia	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Chrobry Głogów	D	0 - 0
01 Sep	A Kluczevia Stargard	W	2 - 3
29 Aug	H Stal Mielec	W	2 - 0
21 Aug	A Lechia Gdansk	L	1 - 0

Arka Gdynia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Pogoń Siedlce	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Warta Poznań	L	3 - 0
06 Sep	H ŁKS Łódź	D	1 - 1
02 Sep	A Resovia Rzeszów	W	0 - 4
30 Aug	H Polonia Bytom	D	1 - 1

I Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	5	3	1	15	8	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	5	1	3	14	12	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	5	0	4	17	13	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	4	3	2	13	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	14	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	15	12	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	10	15	-5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	17	15	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	3	3	3	11	8	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	3	3	2	9	7	+2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	3	3	3	9	11	-2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11	11	0	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	3	1	5	10	15	-5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	7	9	-2	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	14	17	-3	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14	23	-9	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	0	8	1	12	14	-2	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	2	0	6	8	12	-4	6

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.