Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec Prediction

I Liga · Regular Season - 9

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Lechia Gdansk

Home

7 : 1

HT 2 - 1

Stal Mielec

Away

AI call Lechia Gdansk or draw

47%

26%

27%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec prediction: Sportiko gives Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance of winning, Stal Mielec 27% and the draw 26%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 12:22.

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Away to Score 73%
1st Half Home or Draw 74%

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Timeline

12' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 15'

Yellow Card

23' ▮

⚽ 1–1 28'

Yellow Card

43' ▮

45+2' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

⇄ 46'

⇄ Kamil Cybulski

49' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ Javier Andres Mena

59' ⇄

63' ⚽ 4–1

⇄ 64'

66' ⚽ 5–1

71' ⇄

75' ⚽ 6–1

▮ 78'

Yellow Card

79' ⇄

▮ 84'

Yellow Card

90+2' ⚽ 7–1

FT 7–1

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Lechia Gdansk or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.8%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

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Lechia Gdansk

WWLWW

Stal Mielec

LLDDL

Live insights

81' time check 80% sure

Min 81: Lechia Gdansk leads 6-1. Win probability: 100%. Comeback chance: 0%.

77' Goal 85% sure

Lechia Gdansk now leads 6-1 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 36.2%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Lechia Gdansk leads 5-1. Win probability: 100%. Comeback chance: 0%.

68' Goal 85% sure

Lechia Gdansk now leads 5-1 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 52.9%.

65' Goal 85% sure

Lechia Gdansk now leads 4-1 with 99.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 57.4%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

47%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

27%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Stal Mielec goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	4	4	2	1
1	7	12	7	3	1
2	7	10	6	3	1
3	4	6	4	2	1
4	2	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Lechia Gdansk goals · most likely 1–1 (11.8%)

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Away Win

27%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Away Win

27%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Home Scores More 27% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	4.4%	3.8%	1.7%	0.6%
1	6.5%	11.8%	7.0%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.2%	9.6%	6.4%	2.8%	0.9%
3	4.4%	5.8%	3.9%	1.7%	0.6%
4	2.0%	2.7%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

44%

1.5

56%

73%

2.5

27%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

28%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Lechia Gdansk	Draw	Stal Mielec
Lechia Gdansk	26.5%	3.7%	1.5%
Draw	18.3%	14.8%	9.0%
Stal Mielec	3.9%	5.5%	16.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Lechia Gdansk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Stal Mielec	W	7 - 1
13 Sep	H Miedz Legnica	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Nieciecza	L	2 - 1
01 Sep	A Kluczbork	W	1 - 2
29 Aug	A Polonia Warszawa	W	2 - 4

Stal Mielec — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Lechia Gdansk	L	7 - 1
14 Sep	H Nieciecza	L	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Odra Opole	D	1 - 1
02 Sep	A Górnik Łęczna	D	3 - 3
29 Aug	A Pogoń Siedlce	L	2 - 0

I Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	5	3	1	15	8	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	5	1	3	14	12	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	5	0	4	17	13	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	4	3	2	13	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	14	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	15	12	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	10	15	-5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	17	15	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	3	3	3	11	8	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	3	3	2	9	7	+2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	3	3	3	9	11	-2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11	11	0	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	3	1	5	10	15	-5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	7	9	-2	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	14	17	-3	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14	23	-9	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	0	8	1	12	14	-2	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	2	0	6	8	12	-4	6

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.