Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 10

Post on X

Spartak Varna

Home

0 : 1

HT 0 - 0

Lokomotiv Sofia

Away

Stadion Spartak, Varna

AI call Spartak Varna or draw

38%

28%

34%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction: Sportiko gives Spartak Varna a 38% chance of winning, Lokomotiv Sofia 34% and the draw 28%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 14:10.

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Timeline

▮ 22'

Yellow Card

▮ 45+1'

Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⚽ 0–1 58'

Own Goal

Yellow Card

61' ▮

62' ⇄

Yellow Card

69' ▮

76' ⇄

⇄ 76'

▮ 83'

Yellow Card

▮ 86'

Yellow Card

⇄ 86'

FT 0–1

Spartak Varna

Match Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

54% Ball Possession 46%

14 Total Shots 12

4 Shots on Goal 3

10 Shots off Goal 9

0 Blocked Shots 0

3 Corner Kicks 6

1 Yellow Cards 6

0 Red Cards 0

0 Free Kicks 0

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

Spartak Varna or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Spartak Varna

LDDDL

Lokomotiv Sofia

WLDLD

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Lokomotiv Sofia leads 0-1. Win probability: 82.5%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.5%.

60' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Lokomotiv Sofia win: 73.8%. BTTS: 39.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 74.7%. Over 1.5 remaining: 43.8%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

38%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

34%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lokomotiv Sofia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	6	5	3	1
1	7	13	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1	1
5

↑ Spartak Varna goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Spartak Varna

Boubacar Hanne 0 gls

Tomás Silva 0 gls

José Ricardo Gomes Sousa 0 gls

Lokomotiv Sofia

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

34%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

34%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 16% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 34% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2%	6.3%	5.5%	2.5%	0.9%
1	6.9%	13.2%	8.1%	3.8%	1.3%
2	6.3%	8.7%	6.1%	2.8%	1.0%
3	3.1%	4.3%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.2%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Spartak Varna	Draw	Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna	25.1%	5.8%	3.1%
Draw	12.5%	16.7%	14.7%
Lokomotiv Sofia	1.7%	3.5%	16.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Spartak Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Lokomotiv Sofia	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Slavia Sofia	D	0 - 0
05 Sep	H CSKA Sofia	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Ludogorets	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Levski Sofia	L	6 - 0

Lokomotiv Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Spartak Varna	W	0 - 1
16 Sep	H CSKA Sofia	L	0 - 2
11 Sep	A Cherno More Varna	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	H Ludogorets	L	1 - 2
31 Aug	A Dunav Ruse	D	2 - 2

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24	7	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	16	7	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	19	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	15	12	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16	14	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	9	8	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10	15	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9	19	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8	18	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	11	18	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	5	13	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	11	20	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	10	19	-9	5

Lokomotiv Sofia

Formation: 4-5-1 Coach: L. Penev

99 Velichkov

14 Lyaskov

3 Kostov

91 Bidounga

6 Eirô

7 Delev

5 Dost

31 Stanoev

11 Taoui

20 Kostadinov

29 Aralica

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	M. Velichkov	G
6	Eirô	D
91	R. Bidounga	D
3	K. Kostov	D
14	A. Lyaskov	D
20	D. Kostadinov	M
11	A. Taoui	F
31	K. Stanoev	M
5	E. Dost	M
7	S. Delev	F
29	A. Aralica	F

Substitutes

44	B. Katsarov	M
8	I. Yordanov	M
71	N. Penev	F
17	M. Papazov	F
42	N. Neychev	M
26	K. Miloshev	M
16	M. Medfai	M
24	A. Lyubenov	G
22	R. Daskalov	D
21	K. Chachev	M
77	Caue Caruzo	F

Spartak Varna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: V. Petrov

23 Iliev

2 Ivanov

44 Granchov

45 Tshitoku

76 Valverde

17 Marinov

19 Major

77 Ivanov

82 Silva

11 Hanne

29 Ahmedov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	P. Iliev	G
76	David Valverde	D
45	J. Tshitoku	D
44	A. Granchov	D
2	B. Ivanov	D
19	S. Major	M
17	T. Marinov	M
11	Boubacar Hanne	F
82	Tomás Silva	M
77	A. Ivanov	F
29	A. Ahmedov	F

Substitutes

1	Pedro Victor	G
90	C. Okoh	F
9	T. Chunchukov	F
80	A. Gomes	F
5	D. Krastev	D
20	D. Lozev	D
72	Vasco Oliveira	D
16	Edson Silva	M
6	José Ricardo Gomes Sousa	M
41	Z. Tindano	D
10	J. Lopes	F