CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 9

Post on X

CSKA Sofia

Home

4 : 1

HT 1 - 1

Arda Kardzhali

Away

AI call Difficult CSKA Sofia win or draw

52%

28%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali prediction: Sportiko gives CSKA Sofia a 52% chance of winning, Arda Kardzhali 20% and the draw 28%. Last updated 12 Sep 2026, 20:13.

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Over 1.5 Goals 73%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 2'

▮ 34'

Yellow Card

Penalty

41' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 42'

Yellow Card

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Yellow Card

45' ▮

HT 1–1

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

48' ⚽ 2–1

53' ⚽ 3–1

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

71' ⇄

Penalty

72' ⚽ 4–1

⇄ Barry Cotter

82' ⇄

▮ 85'

Yellow Card

▮ 86'

Yellow Card

⇄ 89'

▮ 90+3'

Yellow Card

FT 4–1

CSKA Sofia

Match Stats

Arda Kardzhali

57% Ball Possession 43%

17 Total Shots 7

9 Shots on Goal 6

8 Shots off Goal 1

0 Blocked Shots 0

4 Corner Kicks 3

1 Yellow Cards 5

0 Red Cards 0

0 Free Kicks 0

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult CSKA Sofia win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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CSKA Sofia

DWWWD

Arda Kardzhali

DLLWW

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

20%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arda Kardzhali goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	12	13	5	2
2	10	10	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ CSKA Sofia goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

72% Home (No Draw) 28% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	5.9%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
1	11.5%	13.5%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.5%	9.5%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.6%	5.1%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.2%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	CSKA Sofia	Draw	Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia	31.8%	3.6%	1.0%
Draw	18.9%	18.1%	7.6%
Arda Kardzhali	2.5%	4.4%	12.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

CSKA Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Lokomotiv Sofia	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	H Arda Kardzhali	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Levski Sofia	W	2 - 4
05 Sep	A Spartak Varna	D	1 - 1

Arda Kardzhali — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Cherno More Varna	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A CSKA Sofia	L	4 - 1
04 Sep	H Botev Plovdiv	L	2 - 3
31 Aug	H Botev Vratsa	W	2 - 0
24 Aug	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	W	0 - 1

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24	7	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	16	7	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	19	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	15	12	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16	14	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	9	8	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10	15	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9	19	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8	18	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	11	18	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	5	13	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	11	20	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	10	19	-9	5

CSKA Sofia

Formation: 4-1-2-1-2 Coach: Daniel Morales

21 Lapoukhov

2 Pastor

14 Ivanov

5 Gbamin

19 Yordanov

6 Jordão

99 Eto'o

8 Sensi

67 Itu

10 Zwarts

28 Pittas

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
21	F. Lapoukhov	G
19	A. Yordanov	M
5	J. Gbamin	M
14	T. Ivanov	D
2	Pastor	D
6	Bruno Jordão	M
8	S. Sensi	M
99	J. Eto'o	M
67	C. Itu	M
28	I. Pittas	F
10	J. Zwarts	F

Substitutes

30	P. Panayotov	M
32	Facundo Santiago Rodríguez	D
94	I. Solet Bomawoko	M
4	Dinis Almeida	D
11	M. Brahimi	F
80	G. Chorbadzhiyski	M
37	B. Cotter	D
25	D. Evtimov	G
9	S. Godoy	F
34	V. Kaymakanov	M
38	Léo Pereira	F

Arda Kardzhali

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: A. Tunchev

1 Gospodinov

21 Velev

5 Lyubenov

24 Paskalev

6 Popov

80 Kotev

99 Karagaren

8 Yankov

91 Ivanov

10 Kovachev

9 Nikolov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	A. Gospodinov	G
6	V. Popov	D
24	M. Paskalev	D
5	V. Lyubenov	D
21	V. Velev	D
80	L. Kotev	M
10	S. Kovachev	F
91	S. Ivanov	F
8	D. Yankov	M
99	B. Karagaren	F
9	G. Nikolov	F

Substitutes

35	D. Velkovski	D
18	S. Vasilev	D
44	Adama Ardile Traoré	D
11	A. Kabov	F
22	Y. Georgiev	G
16	P. Bachev	F
26	B. Akandzha	M
39	A. Vutov	M