Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 9

Post on X

Cherno More Varna

Home

2 : 2

HT 2 - 0

Lokomotiv Sofia

Away

AI call Cherno More Varna or draw

45%

29%

27%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction: Sportiko gives Cherno More Varna a 45% chance of winning, Lokomotiv Sofia 27% and the draw 29%. Last updated 11 Sep 2026, 19:56.

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Over 1.5 Goals 76%

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Timeline

6' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 15'

Yellow Card

▮ 34'

Yellow Card

37' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 45+3'

Red Card

HT 2–0

⇄ 46'

Yellow Card

57' ▮

58' ⇄

⇄ 61'

Yellow Card

62' ▮

⚽ 2–1 64'

Yellow Card

69' ▮

⚽ 2–2 77'

⇄ 78'

79' ⇄

86' ⇄

▮ 87'

Yellow Card

FT 2–2

Cherno More Varna

Match Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

58% Ball Possession 42%

12 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 3

8 Shots off Goal 5

0 Blocked Shots 0

9 Corner Kicks 5

4 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 1

0 Free Kicks 0

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Cherno More Varna or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Cherno More Varna

DDLLW

Lokomotiv Sofia

WLDLD

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

27%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lokomotiv Sofia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	2
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5		1

↑ Cherno More Varna goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

63% Home (No Draw) 37% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	6.4%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
1	9.2%	13.8%	6.9%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.3%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.2%	4.8%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Cherno More Varna	Draw	Lokomotiv Sofia
Cherno More Varna	26.3%	4.6%	2.0%
Draw	17.4%	18.1%	12.0%
Lokomotiv Sofia	2.3%	3.9%	13.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Cherno More Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Arda Kardzhali	D	1 - 1
11 Sep	H Lokomotiv Sofia	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	L	1 - 0
30 Aug	A CSKA Sofia	L	3 - 1
21 Aug	H Dunav Ruse	W	3 - 1

Lokomotiv Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Spartak Varna	W	0 - 1
16 Sep	H CSKA Sofia	L	0 - 2
11 Sep	A Cherno More Varna	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	H Ludogorets	L	1 - 2
31 Aug	A Dunav Ruse	D	2 - 2

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	+17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	24	7	+17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	16	7	+9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	19	10	+9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	15	12	+3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16	14	+2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	9	8	+1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	10	15	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	9	19	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	8	18	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	11	18	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	5	13	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	11	20	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	10	19	-9	5