Maribor vs Aluminij Prediction

1. SNL · Regular Season - 10

Post on X

Maribor

Home

2 : 2

HT 1 - 0

Aluminij

Away

Ljudski vrt, Maribor

AI call Difficult Maribor win or draw

63%

22%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Maribor vs Aluminij prediction: Sportiko gives Maribor a 63% chance of winning, Aluminij 15% and the draw 22%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 20:13.

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1st Half Over 0.5 72%

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Timeline

▮ 12'

Yellow Card

▮ 19'

Yellow Card

22' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 52'

65' ⇄

⇄ 74'

79' ⇄

⇄ 80'

⇄ Marko Mladenović

⚽ 1–2 81'

83' ⇄

⇄ 88'

90+7' ⚽ 2–2

FT 2–2

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Maribor win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.7%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Maribor

DWDWW

Aluminij

DWDLL

Last 2 meetings Maribor · 0W 2D 0L

Live insights

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Aluminij leads 1-2. Win probability: 87%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13%.

81' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-2! Aluminij win probability: 83.9%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 25.1%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 67.3%. Late goal chance: 36%.

52' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 42.4%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Maribor leads. Win probability: 83.7%. Over 0.5 more goals: 75.2%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

63%

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

15%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Aluminij goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	9	12	5	2
2	11	10	5	2
3	7	7	3	1
4	3	3	2
5	1	1	1

↑ Maribor goals · most likely 1–1 (11.7%)

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Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

22%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

22%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

78% Home (No Draw) 22% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

59% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	4.0%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
1	9.4%	11.7%	5.0%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.5%	10.1%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.8%	6.6%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.3%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Maribor	Draw	Aluminij
Maribor	36.3%	3.2%	0.9%
Draw	20.5%	14.8%	5.9%
Aluminij	3.4%	4.6%	10.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Maribor vs Aluminij

0 Maribor Wins

2 Draws

0 Aluminij Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Jul 2026	Aluminij	0 - 0	Maribor
20 Mar 2026	Aluminij	1 - 1	Maribor

Maribor — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Aluminij	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	A Radomlje	W	0 - 3
06 Sep	H Mura	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Nafta	W	2 - 3
23 Aug	H Bravo	W	3 - 1

Aluminij — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Maribor	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	A Mura	W	1 - 6
05 Sep	H Bravo	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	H Celje	L	0 - 2
28 Aug	H Koper	L	0 - 1

1. SNL Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Maribor	10	5	5	0	19	8	+11	20
2	Koper	10	5	3	2	11	8	+3	18
3	Bravo	10	5	3	2	12	10	+2	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	10	8	+2	14
5	Aluminij	10	3	4	3	16	11	+5	13
6	Nafta	10	4	1	5	17	16	+1	13
7	Celje	9	3	3	3	11	11	0	12
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	14	18	-4	11
9	Mura	10	2	3	5	10	21	-11	9
10	Radomlje	9	1	2	6	9	18	-9	5

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.