Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction

Challenge League · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Away

Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge

AI call Étoile Carouge or draw

40%

27%

33%

Home Win · 2.55 Draw · 3.80 Away Win · 2.59

Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC prediction: Sportiko gives Étoile Carouge a 40% chance of winning, Neuchatel Xamax FC 33% and the draw 27%. Last updated 7 Aug 2026, 20:07.

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1st Half Home or Draw 76%
Under 3.5 Goals 75% @ 1.67
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 18'

HT 0–1

⇄ 58'

▮ 67'

Yellow Card

⇄ 67'

⇄ 68'

77' ⇄

▮ 78'

Yellow Card

83' ⇄

⇄ 83'

89' ⇄

Yellow Card

90' ▮

FT 0–1

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Étoile Carouge or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Étoile Carouge

LDWLW

Neuchatel Xamax FC

WWWLL

Match summary

In the upcoming Challenge League clash, Étoile Carouge faces Neuchatel Xamax FC. Étoile Carouge has shown a solid home record, which could play a crucial role in their performance. On the other hand, Neuchatel Xamax FC will look to exploit any defensive weaknesses, as they aim for a strong away showing. Both teams have had mixed results in their recent fixtures, making this a pivotal match for positioning in the league standings. Expect a competitive encounter as both sides vie for crucial points in the early stages of the season.

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Neuchatel Xamax FC leads 0-1. Win probability: 82.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Neuchatel Xamax FC leads. Win probability: 66.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 70.9%.

19' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Neuchatel Xamax FC win: 59.7%. BTTS: 68.4%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	7	5	2
1	10	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Étoile Carouge goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

33%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

33%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	6.9%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%
1	9.6%	14.1%	6.9%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.1%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.0%	4.4%	2.5%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.5%	1.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Étoile Carouge	Draw	Neuchatel Xamax FC
Étoile Carouge	27.0%	4.1%	1.3%
Draw	15.4%	18.5%	9.5%
Neuchatel Xamax FC	2.2%	4.8%	17.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Étoile Carouge — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	L	0 - 1
31 Jul	A Yverdon Sport	D	1 - 1
24 Jul	H FC Aarau	W	3 - 0
01 Jul	H Grand-Saconnex	L	0 - 1
22 Mar	A FC WIL 1900	W	1 - 3

Neuchatel Xamax FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Étoile Carouge	W	0 - 1
31 Jul	A FC WIL 1900	W	1 - 2
24 Jul	H SC Kriens	W	3 - 2
01 Jul	H FC Sion	L	2 - 4
27 Jun	A FC Lugano	L	2 - 1

Challenge League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Neuchatel Xamax FC	3	3	0	0	6	3	+3	9
2	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	3	2	1	0	5	1	+4	7
3	Yverdon Sport	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	FC Winterthur	3	1	1	1	7	4	+3	4
5	Étoile Carouge	3	1	1	1	4	2	+2	4
6	FC Aarau	3	1	1	1	3	5	-2	4
7	SC Kriens	3	1	0	2	4	5	-1	3
8	Rapperswil	3	1	0	2	6	8	-2	3
9	FC WIL 1900	3	1	0	2	6	11	-5	3
10	Stade Nyonnais	3	0	0	3	2	6	-4	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.