Chaves vs Penafiel Prediction

Segunda Liga Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 10
FT
Post on X
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
AI call Chaves or draw
40%
30%
30%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Chaves vs Penafiel prediction: Sportiko gives Chaves a 40% chance of winning, Penafiel 30% and the draw 30%. Last updated 7 Nov 2026, 15:58.

Premium picks

Premium
  • Home to Score 75%
  • Under 3.5 Goals 75%
  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 21'
34' ⇄
Yellow Card
36' ▮
40' ⚽ 1–1
HT 1–1
▮ 56'
Yellow Card
⇄ 65'
⇄ 65'
⇄ Marcos Maia
71' ⇄
71' ⇄
71' ⇄
⇄ 73'
⚽ 1–2 79'
80' ⇄
⚽ 1–3 82'
85' ⚽ 2–3
⇄ 86'
⇄ 86'
FT 2–3
Chaves

Match Stats

Penafiel
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 7
0 Blocked Shots 0
8 Corner Kicks 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
0 Free Kicks 0
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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean
Chaves or draw
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Chaves
LLWWD
Penafiel
WWWLL

Live insights

86' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-3! Penafiel win probability: 94.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 10.7%.

83' Goal 85% sure

Penafiel now leads 1-3 with 99.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 17.9%.

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Penafiel leads 1-3. Win probability: 99.5%. Comeback chance: 0.5%.

81' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-2! Penafiel win probability: 88.6%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 22.3%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 70.6%. Late goal chance: 32.4%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
40%
10%
Draw
30%
45%
Away
30%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Chaves
André Rodrigues 1 gls
Costinha 0 gls
Penafiel

No scorer data.

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Head to Head: Chaves vs Penafiel

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Chaves — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov H Penafiel L 2 - 3
31 Oct A Benfica B L 3 - 1
23 Oct H Vizela W 2 - 1
16 Oct H Os Marialvas W 2 - 1
11 Oct A Lusitânia Lourosa D 1 - 1

Penafiel — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov A Chaves W 2 - 3
02 Nov H Feirense W 1 - 0
24 Oct A Farense W 1 - 4
17 Oct H Leça L 0 - 1
09 Oct H AVS L 1 - 2

Segunda Liga Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Penafiel
10 7 1 2 +12 22
2
Sporting CP B
9 7 0 2 +8 21
3
Lusitânia Lourosa
9 5 4 0 +7 19
4
Benfica B
9 5 2 2 +5 17
5
Academica
10 5 1 4 +3 16
6
Farense
9 4 3 2 +4 15
7
Tondela
9 5 0 4 +2 15
8
Vizela
10 4 3 3 +1 15
9
União de Leiria
9 4 2 3 +2 14
10
AVS
10 3 4 3 +1 13
11
Leixoes
10 3 2 5 -4 11
12
Portimonense
9 3 2 4 -4 11
13
Torreense
9 2 4 3 -2 10
14
Amarante
10 2 3 5 -4 9
15
Felgueiras 1932
10 1 5 4 -3 8
16
FC Porto B
9 2 2 5 -9 8
17
Chaves
10 2 2 6 -10 8
18
Feirense
9 0 2 7 -9 2

Chaves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Vitor Martins
1 Valido
3 Romero
14 Araújo
34 Alves
23 Alabá
80 fofana
19 García
42 Tavares
7 Esajas
18 Tavares
10 Rodrigues

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 João Valido G
23 Léo Alabá D
34 Ricardo Alves D
14 N. Araújo D
3 Aarón Romero D
42 Aílson Tavares M
19 Gilberto García M
80 mohamed fofana M
10 André Rodrigues F
18 Wilson Tavares F
7 R. Esajas D

Substitutes

30 Costinha F
6 B. Eboudjé M
99 GB F
88 M. Gudžulić G
2 A. Herbert D
8 João Teixeira M
9 Marcos Maia F
17 Roberto F
33 Tiago Simões D
29 M. Tounkara D
16 D. Yearwood M
27 J. Mendes F

Penafiel

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: José Manuel Aira
1 Oliveira
3 Silva
6 Pica
14 Meré
2 Imbene
21 Sá
17 Pinto
7 Borel
33 Schutte
9 Svensson
11 Fuentes

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Miguel Oliveira G
14 Jorge Meré D
6 Adrián Pica D
3 Cláudio Silva D
7 Douglas Borel D
17 João Pinto F
21 Pedro Sá M
2 Iano Imbene D
11 J. Fuentes F
9 Max Svensson F
33 Ricardo Schutte F

Substitutes

10 Davo F
22 Martim Alberto D
99 Claudio F
4 João Miguel D
27 Gonçalo Negrão D
18 Konrad Sinyam M
23 Duarte Oliveira D
38 M. Ramon M
13 Eric Puerto G
12 Alexei Rojas Fedorushchenko G
79 Tomás Teixeira -
50 Francisco Varela M

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