Penafiel vs Academica Prediction

Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 5

Post on X

Penafiel

Home

4 : 1

HT 2 - 0

Academica

Away

Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel

AI call Penafiel or draw

41%

31%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Penafiel vs Academica prediction: Sportiko gives Penafiel a 41% chance of winning, Academica 28% and the draw 31%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 14:58.

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Home to Score 73%

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Timeline

25' ⇄

36' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 40'

Yellow Card

42' ⚽ 2–0

Red Card

45+5' ▮

HT 2–0

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Yellow Card

53' ▮

57' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 61'

Yellow Card

62' ▮

71' ⚽ 4–0

⇄ 79'

79' ⇄

Yellow Card

80' ▮

83' ⇄

▮ 86'

Yellow Card

88' ▮

⚽ 4–1 90+2'

FT 4–1

Penafiel

Match Stats

Academica

45% Ball Possession 55%

10 Total Shots 20

6 Shots on Goal 9

4 Shots off Goal 11

0 Blocked Shots 0

2 Corner Kicks 4

5 Yellow Cards 2

2 Red Cards 0

0 Free Kicks 0

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Our lean

Penafiel or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Penafiel

WWWWW

Academica

WLLLW

Last 2 meetings Penafiel · 0W 2D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

28%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Academica goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	8	5	2
1	11	15	7	2	1
2	8	9	4	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Penafiel goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

59% Home (No Draw) 41% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 28% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.2%	8.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%
1	10.7%	14.7%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.1%	8.5%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.6%	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Penafiel	Draw	Academica
Penafiel	27.0%	5.0%	1.7%
Draw	13.5%	20.2%	11.8%
Academica	1.4%	3.7%	15.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Penafiel vs Academica

0 Penafiel Wins

2 Draws

0 Academica Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
03 May 2015	Penafiel	0 - 0	Academica
21 Dec 2014	Academica	0 - 0	Penafiel

Penafiel — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Oliveirense	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Felgueiras 1932	W	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Academica	W	4 - 1
30 Aug	A FC Porto B	W	0 - 3
23 Aug	H Sporting CP B	W	2 - 0

Academica — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Real	W	1 - 4
11 Sep	H Benfica B	L	0 - 3
05 Sep	A Penafiel	L	4 - 1
29 Aug	H Lusitânia Lourosa	L	0 - 2
21 Aug	A Tondela	W	0 - 2

Segunda Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11	4	+7	16
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13	5	+8	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8	6	+2	12
4	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7	4	+3	11
5	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7	5	+2	10
6	União de Leiria	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8	6	+2	10
8	Academica	6	3	0	3	8	10	-2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7	6	+1	9
10	Farense	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4	6	-2	7
12	AVS	6	1	3	2	6	6	0	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5	6	-1	6
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7	9	-2	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5	8	-3	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	5	9	-4	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4	13	-9	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1	8	-7	1

Penafiel

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: José Manuel Aira

1 Oliveira

3 Silva

6 Pica

5 Sánchez

75 Alloh

21 Sá

8 Carbonell

27 Negrão

10 Davo

9 Svensson

17 Pinto

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Miguel Oliveira	G
5	Jaime Sánchez	D
6	Adrián Pica	D
3	Cláudio Silva	D
27	Gonçalo Negrão	D
8	Alex Carbonell	M
21	Pedro Sá	M
75	T. Alloh	D
17	João Pinto	F
9	Max Svensson	F
10	Davo	F

Substitutes

13	Eric Puerto	G
4	João Miguel	D
2	Iano Imbene	D
11	J. Fuentes	F
38	M. Ramon	M
85	Carlinhos Augusto	M
7	Douglas Borel	D
50	francisco varela	M
99	Claudio	F
33	Ricardo Schutte	F
23	Duarte Oliveira	D
18	Konrad Sinyam	M

Academica

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: António Barbosa

98 Alves

22 Lopes

54 Ni

3 Teixeira

15 Kaka

20 Sinisterra

5 Silva

17 Paulo

7 Mané

10 Faure

19 Rodrigues

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	Carlos Alves	G
15	Kaka	D
3	Ricardo Teixeira	D
54	Ni	D
22	Hélder Lopes	D
17	Marcos Paulo	M
5	Leandro Silva	D
20	J. Sinisterra	M
19	Afonso Rodrigues	F
10	I. Faure	F
7	Alioune Mané	F

Substitutes

92	A. Coundoul	M
9	Martim Tavares	F
23	Rui Gomes	F
12	Victor Braga	G
60	João Oliveira	M
26	T. Soares	M
46	H. Nunes	M
4	Guilherme Willian da Silva	D
13	Kauan	D
1	Nuno Macedo	G