Leixoes vs Tondela Prediction

Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 2

Post on X

Leixoes

Home

1 : 0

HT 0 - 0

Tondela

Away

Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos

AI call Leixoes or draw

37%

30%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Leixoes vs Tondela prediction: Sportiko gives Leixoes a 37% chance of winning, Tondela 33% and the draw 30%. Last updated 16 Aug 2026, 16:34.

Premium picks

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Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Home to Score 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Away to Score 72%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Timeline

Yellow Card

38' ▮

▮ 38'

Helder Tavares Yellow Card

▮ 45+5'

Cicero Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⇄ 55'

Hugo Félix ⇄ Tomané

60' ⚽ 1–0

72' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Helder Tavares ⇄ Siphephelo Sithole

▮ 79'

Tomané Yellow Card

79' ⇄

83' ⇄

⇄ 86'

⇄ Bebeto

⇄ 86'

Christian Marques ⇄ Arjen Van Der Heide

Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

▮ 90+1'

Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

▮ 90+5'

Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Leixoes

Match Stats

Tondela

Ball Possession

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Shots off Goal

Blocked Shots

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

2 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Leixoes or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.2%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Leixoes

WDWWL

Tondela

WWWLL

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

37%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Tondela goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	6	3	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Leixoes goals · most likely 1–1 (14.2%)

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

33%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

33%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 34% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	7.8%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
1	8.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.4%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.0%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leixoes	Draw	Tondela
Leixoes	20.7%	4.0%	1.6%
Draw	14.8%	18.5%	12.1%
Tondela	2.4%	5.0%	20.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leixoes vs Tondela

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Leixoes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Cinfães	W	0 - 4
11 Sep	A Torreense	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H Amarante	W	3 - 1
29 Aug	A Portimonense	W	0 - 2
22 Aug	H União de Leiria	L	2 - 4

Tondela — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Imortal Albufeira	W	1 - 5
12 Sep	A Portimonense	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H FC Porto B	W	3 - 0
28 Aug	A União de Leiria	L	2 - 0
21 Aug	H Academica	L	0 - 2

Segunda Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11	4	+7	16
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13	5	+8	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8	6	+2	12
4	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7	4	+3	11
5	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7	5	+2	10
6	União de Leiria	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8	6	+2	10
8	Academica	6	3	0	3	8	10	-2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7	6	+1	9
10	Farense	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4	6	-2	7
12	AVS	6	1	3	2	6	6	0	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5	6	-1	6
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7	9	-2	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5	8	-3	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	5	9	-4	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4	13	-9	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1	8	-7	1

Tondela

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Goncalo Feio

1 Cañizares

23 Medina

6 Farru

4 Marques

12 Ricardo

97 Cicero

8 Tavares

15 Carraça

7 Cascavel

20 Félix

9 Lima

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lucas Cañizares	G
4	Christian Marques	D
6	Farru	D
23	Brayan Medina	D
15	Carraça	D
8	Hélder Tavares	M
97	Cicero	M
12	Zé Ricardo	D
20	Hugo Félix	M
7	Cascavel	M
9	João Lima	F

Substitutes

28	Carlos Eduardo de Araújo	G
22	Bruno Almeida	D
21	Gabriel Alves Ramalho	D
2	Bebeto	D
5	João Afonso	D
37	Mateus Sarará	D
11	Richarllyson Carvalho Alves	M
13	Yaya Sithole	M
14	Xabi Huarte	M
17	Gastón Novero	M
19	Tomané	F
26	Arjen Van Der Heide	F

Leixoes

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Carlos Fangueiro

51 Stefanović

15 Simãozinho

63 Faria

4 Costa

77 Paulinho

22 Araújo

6 Balde

10 Barbosa

9 Bica

35 Róchez

7 Agra

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
51	Igor Stefanović	G
77	Paulinho	D
4	Matheus Costa	D
63	Hugo Faria	D
15	Simãozinho	D
10	Rafael Barbosa	M
6	Amadu Balde	M
22	Cláudio Araújo	M
7	Salvador Agra	M
35	Bryan Róchez	F
9	José Bica	F

Substitutes

47	João Cardoso	G
2	Fernando Fonseca	D
30	Serif Nhaga	D
83	António Gonçalves	D
3	Lourenco Henriques	D
17	Arthur Baggio	M
21	Agustin De Armas	M
88	Ruben Pina	M
80	João Assunção	M
33	Luccas Paraizo Feitosa	F
99	Morufdeen Moshood	F