Chaves vs Academica Prediction

Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

Academica

Away

Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves

AI call Chaves or draw

41%

30%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Chaves vs Academica prediction: Sportiko gives Chaves a 41% chance of winning, Academica 28% and the draw 30%. Last updated 8 Aug 2026, 12:02.

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1st Half Draw or Away 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

▮ 26'

Yellow Card

⚽ 0–2 38'

HT 0–2

46' ⇄

60' ⇄

⇄ 61'

⚽ 0–3 63'

67' ⇄

77' ⇄

⚽ 0–4 79'

⇄ 80'

85' ⚽ 1–4

⇄ 90'

FT 1–4

Chaves

Match Stats

Academica

Ball Possession

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Shots off Goal

Blocked Shots

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

0 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Our lean

Chaves or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Chaves

WWLDL

Academica

WLLLW

Match summary

Chaves will face Academica in a Segunda Liga clash on August 8, 2026. Chaves enters the match with a strong home record, having secured an average of 1.8 points per game at home last season. Academica, on the other hand, has shown resilience in away matches, collecting points through a solid defensive structure. Both teams will aim to capitalize on their strengths, but Chaves' attacking prowess could prove decisive. Expect a competitive match as each team seeks to make an early statement in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

28%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Academica goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	10	7	3	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	6	8	4	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Chaves goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

15% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	9.9%	6.8%	2.7%	0.8%
1	9.6%	15.0%	7.8%	3.0%	0.9%
2	6.5%	7.6%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.5%	2.9%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Chaves	Draw	Academica
Chaves	19.4%	4.3%	1.7%
Draw	13.4%	20.9%	13.7%
Academica	1.7%	4.4%	20.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Chaves vs Academica

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Chaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Guarda	W	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Feirense	W	1 - 0
30 Aug	A Felgueiras 1932	L	2 - 1
23 Aug	H AVS	D	2 - 2
15 Aug	A Sporting CP B	L	1 - 0

Academica — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Real	W	1 - 4
11 Sep	H Benfica B	L	0 - 3
05 Sep	A Penafiel	L	4 - 1
29 Aug	H Lusitânia Lourosa	L	0 - 2
21 Aug	A Tondela	W	0 - 2

Segunda Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11	4	+7	16
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13	5	+8	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8	6	+2	12
4	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7	4	+3	11
5	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7	5	+2	10
6	União de Leiria	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8	6	+2	10
8	Academica	6	3	0	3	8	10	-2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7	6	+1	9
10	Farense	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4	6	-2	7
12	AVS	6	1	3	2	6	6	0	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5	6	-1	6
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7	9	-2	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5	8	-3	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	5	9	-4	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4	13	-9	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1	8	-7	1

Chaves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Filipe Martins

88 Gudžulić

3 Romero

4 Rodrigues

33 Simões

23 Alaba

10 Rodrigues

6 Eboudjé

20 Ktatau

30 Costinha

17 Roberto

7 Esajas

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
88	Marko Gudžulić	G
23	Léo Alaba	D
33	Tiago Simões	D
4	Bruno Rodrigues	D
3	Aarón Romero	D
20	Ktatau	M
6	Brice Eboudjé	M
10	André Rodrigues	M
7	Robyn Esajas	F
17	Roberto	F
30	Costinha	F

Substitutes

5	Kiko Pereira	D
18	Wilson Tavares	F
97	João Teixeira	M
31	Rodrigo Nascimento	G
1	João Valido	G
34	Ricardo Alves	D
29	Mamadou Tounkara	D
70	Diogo Cardoso	M
87	Rodrigo Melro	M
11	Pedro Pelágio	M
60	Divin Muteba	F

Academica

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Antonio Barbosa

98 Alves

15 Kaka

54 Ni

3 Teixeira

11 Farias

17 Gomes

5 Silva

20 Sinisterra

7 Mane

10 Hassaine

19 Rodrigues

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	Carlos Alves	G
11	Edson Farias	D
3	Ricardo Teixeira	D
54	Ni	D
15	Kaka	D
20	Jean Sinisterra	M
5	Leandro Silva	M
17	Marcos Paulo Gomes	M
19	Afonso Rodrigues	M
10	Ilies Hassaine	F
7	Alioune Mane	F

Substitutes

44	Pontus Texel	D
92	Amadou Coundoul	F
1	Nuno Macedo	G
4	Gui Silva	D
13	Kauan	D
22	Hélder Lopes	D
23	Rui Gomes	M
46	Hugo Nunes	M
60	João Oliveira	M
9	Martim Tavares	F