Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 20

Post on X

Gnistan

Home

3 : 2

HT 2 - 2

Ilves

Away

Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki

AI call Gnistan or draw

45%

27%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Gnistan vs Ilves prediction: Sportiko gives Gnistan a 45% chance of winning, Ilves 28% and the draw 27%. Last updated 17 Aug 2026, 16:55.

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Home or Away 73%

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Timeline

S. Väisänen Own Goal

4' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 14'

T. Hytönen

Bogdan Milovanov Yellow Card

24' ▮

⚽ 1–2 41'

A. Popovitch assist: K. Wallius

▮ 43'

S. Väisänen Yellow Card

A. Akinyemi assist: G. Europaeus

45' ⚽ 2–2

HT 2–2

S. Ylätupa ⇄ A. Atarah

46' ⇄

▮ 56'

S. Väisänen Yellow Card

▮ 56'

S. Väisänen Red Card

⇄ 62'

⇄ Y. Raap

⇄ 62'

J. Kilo ⇄ S. Baranov

A. Akinyemi ⇄ D. Pérez

63' ⇄

⇄ 78'

A. Popovitch ⇄ R. Riski

⇄ 78'

Bogdan Milovanov

81' ⚽ 3–2

R. Eremenko ⇄ J. Latonen

86' ⇄

⇄ 89'

T. Miettunen

D. Pérez Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

▮ 90+3'

J. Kanga Yellow Card

A. Atarah ⇄ J. Ojala

90+4' ⇄

FT 3–2

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Gnistan or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Gnistan

DWDDW

Ilves

WWWLL

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

28%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ilves goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	6	3	1
1	14	13	4	1
2	12	9	3	1
3	6	5	2
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Gnistan goals · most likely 1–0 (14.5%)

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Players in form

Gnistan

A. Akinyemi 3 gls

Ilves

T. Hytönen 7 gls

J. Kanga 4 gls

E. Tamminen 3 gls

M. Stjopin 2 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

77% Home (No Draw) 23% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 16% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.9%	6.1%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%
1	14.5%	13.2%	4.3%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.3%	9.0%	3.3%	0.8%	0.2%
3	6.3%	4.6%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.4%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gnistan	Draw	Ilves
Gnistan	38.4%	4.2%	1.0%
Draw	16.5%	19.5%	7.3%
Ilves	1.4%	3.0%	8.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gnistan vs Ilves

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Gnistan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H HJK Helsinki	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A AC Oulu	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	H KuPS	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	H Turku PS	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	A HJK Helsinki	W	2 - 3

Ilves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Turku PS	W	0 - 3
12 Sep	H Lahti	W	3 - 1
08 Sep	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
31 Aug	H HJK Helsinki	L	1 - 2
22 Aug	H VPS	L	0 - 1

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

Ilves

Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Gnistan

Coach: Jussi Leppalahti