AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 19

Post on X

HJK Helsinki

Away

Raatin stadion, Oulu

AI call HJK Helsinki or draw

34%

28%

39%

Home Win Draw Away Win

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki prediction: Sportiko gives AC Oulu a 34% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki 39% and the draw 28%. Last updated 9 Aug 2026, 17:52.

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Home to Score 76%
Away to Score 72%
Under 3.5 Goals 72%

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Timeline

M. Arsalo Yellow Card

20' ▮

⚽ 0–1 44'

HT 0–1

46' ⇄

M. Arsalo

49' ⇄

▮ 63'

Yellow Card

66' ⇄

L. Ghezali ⇄ N. Jokelainen

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

T. Pukki ⇄ M. Borchers

⇄ 66'

S. Haarala

Yellow Card

77' ▮

Miguel Santos Yellow Card

79' ▮

▮ 79'

V. Tikkanen Yellow Card

▮ 80'

L. Lingman Yellow Card

⇄ 80'

Alfie Cicale

⇄ 80'

⇄ A. Ring

⇄ 88'

K. Simojoki ⇄ L. Montano

FT 0–1

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Our lean

HJK Helsinki or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.9%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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AC Oulu

LLLDW

HJK Helsinki

DDWLW

Last 1 meetings AC Oulu · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Veikkausliiga match, AC Oulu will face HJK Helsinki. HJK currently leads the league with a strong offensive record, averaging 2.1 goals per match, while AC Oulu has struggled defensively, conceding 1.5 goals per game. Historically, HJK has dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters. Oulu will need to capitalize on set pieces and create scoring opportunities, as they have a lower possession rate compared to HJK. The match could hinge on Oulu's ability to contain HJK's attacking threats and convert their chances effectively.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

34%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

39%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HJK Helsinki goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	6	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	2	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ AC Oulu goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Players in form

AC Oulu

J. Körkkö 2 gls

E. Kallio 2 gls

HJK Helsinki

M. Borchers 4 gls

T. Pukki 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

39%

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

39%

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

54% Home (No Draw) 46% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	7.0%	5.6%	2.4%	0.8%
1	7.9%	13.9%	7.9%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.8%	8.7%	5.6%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.2%	4.1%	2.7%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.1%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	AC Oulu	Draw	HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu	18.2%	3.0%	1.2%
Draw	17.6%	17.6%	10.3%
HJK Helsinki	3.7%	6.3%	22.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

24%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

1 AC Oulu Wins

0 Draws

0 HJK Helsinki Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Mar 2026	AC Oulu	2 - 1	HJK Helsinki

AC Oulu — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Inter Turku	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Gnistan	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A VPS	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	H SJK	D	0 - 0
22 Aug	A FF Jaro	W	0 - 1

HJK Helsinki — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A KuPS	D	0 - 0
09 Sep	H Inter Turku	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	A Ilves	W	1 - 2

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

HJK Helsinki

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Joonas Rantanen

44 Marković

13 Simojoki

3 Cissokho

6 Tikkanen

28 Ylitolva

10 Lingman

32 Gueye

7 Cicale

17 Kirilov

29 Haarala

20 Pukki

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
44	Matej Marković	G
28	Miska Ylitolva	D
6	Ville Tikkanen	D
3	Till Cissokho	D
13	Kaius Simojoki	D
32	Mouhamed Gueye	M
10	Lucas Lingman	M
29	Santeri Haarala	F
17	Martin Kirilov	M
7	Alfie Cicale	M
20	Teemu Pukki	F

Substitutes

22	Liam Möller	M
9	Mads Borchers	F
1	Jesse Öst	G
14	Leonel Montano	D
65	Amara Nallo	D
4	Alexander Ring	M
8	Pyry Mentu	M
18	Toivo Mero	M

AC Oulu

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Mikko Isokangas

13 Santos

18 Cassama

66 Pirinen

3 Lietsa

22 Kaukua

6 Paananen

25 Arsalo

11 Ghezali

27 Kallio

32 Kone

7 Karjalainen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Miguel Santos	G
22	Tuomas Kaukua	M
3	Alex Lietsa	D
66	Juha Pirinen	D
18	Adramane Cassama	M
11	Lamine Ghezali	M
25	Markus Arsalo	M
6	Julius Paananen	M
7	Rasmus Karjalainen	M
32	Abdoulaye Kone	M
27	Elias Kallio	M

Substitutes

10	Camilo Triana	F
34	Iiro Mendolin	M
14	Niklas Jokelainen	M
20	Kalifa Jatta	M
99	Niklas Schulz	G
2	Sami Sipola	D
5	Mikko Pitkänen	D
29	Santeri Silander	D
8	Matias Ojala	M