FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction

2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1

09 Aug 2026, 11:30

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FC St. Pauli

Home

11:30

09 Aug 2026

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Away

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

AI call FC St. Pauli or draw

46%

27%

Home Win · 1.88 Draw · 3.90 Away Win · 3.95

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction: Sportiko gives FC St. Pauli a 46% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27% and the draw 27%. Last updated 8 Aug 2026, 08:01.

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75% 74% 74%

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.2%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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FC St. Pauli

DLDWL

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

WLLWW

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

46%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

27%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	7	5	2	1
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	7	9	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ FC St. Pauli goals · most likely 1–1 (14.2%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

57% Home (No Draw) 43% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Home Scores More 30% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	7.4%	5.3%	2.1%	0.6%
1	9.0%	14.2%	7.4%	2.9%	0.9%
2	7.5%	8.8%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.5%	4.1%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.4%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC St. Pauli	Draw	SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FC St. Pauli	25.1%	4.8%	1.9%
Draw	14.4%	18.6%	12.3%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth	1.9%	4.1%	16.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

FC St. Pauli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Deportivo La Coruna	D	2 - 2
24 Jul	A Bournemouth	L	4 - 1
19 Jul	H HNK Gorica	D	1 - 1
30 Jun	A Altona 93	W	2 - 6
16 May	H VfL Wolfsburg	L	1 - 3

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
08 Jul	A Eltersdorf	W	0 - 3
05 Jul	A Bayreuth	L	1 - 0
20 Mar	A Karlsruher SC	L	3 - 1
13 Mar	H SV Elversberg	W	2 - 0
08 Mar	A Hannover 96	W	1 - 2

2. Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	1	1	0	1	0	+1	3
2	VfL Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	1. FC Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC St. Pauli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Hannover 96	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	SV Darmstadt 98	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	1. FC Nürnberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Karlsruher SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Dynamo Dresden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Holstein Kiel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Arminia Bielefeld	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	1. FC Magdeburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	VfL Osnabrück	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Energie Cottbus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	VfL Bochum	1	0	1	0	1	-1	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.