Oldham vs Swindon Town Prediction

League Two · Regular Season - 3

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Oldham

Home

3 : 0

HT 1 - 0

Swindon Town

Away

AI call Oldham or draw

47%

27%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Oldham vs Swindon Town prediction: Sportiko gives Oldham a 47% chance of winning, Swindon Town 25% and the draw 27%. Last updated 29 Aug 2026, 15:56.

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1st Half Home or Draw 75%
Under 3.5 Goals 71%

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Timeline

Elliott Nevitt assist: Calum Kavanagh

41' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 45'

Anthony Munda ⇄ Jack Thomson

⇄ 45'

J. Snowdon ⇄ Ollie Palmer

HT 1–0

⇄ 59'

Ben Middlemas ⇄ Tom Nichols

⇄ 59'

⇄ Paul Glatzel

Elliott Nevitt ⇄ Mike Fondop

68' ⇄

Favour Fawunmi ⇄ Noah Chilvers

68' ⇄

Donervon Daniels ⇄ Manny Monthe

68' ⇄

▮ 71'

Ollie Clarke Yellow Card

▮ 75'

Kaelan Majekodunmi Yellow Card

⇄ 77'

Ollie Clarke

▮ 83'

Connor Ripley Yellow Card

Calum Kavanagh Penalty

84' ⚽ 2–0

Kane Drummond ⇄ Tom Pett

86' ⇄

Mike Fondop assist: Calum Kavanagh

90+5' ⚽ 3–0

FT 3–0

Oldham

Match Stats

Swindon Town

44% Ball Possession 56%

26 Total Shots 3

9 Shots on Goal 1

9 Shots off Goal 0

8 Blocked Shots 2

19 Shots insidebox 2

7 Shots outsidebox 1

14 Corner Kicks 4

6 Offsides 2

6 Fouls 12

0 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

285 Total passes 373

209 Passes accurate 285

11 Free Kicks 6

Oldham

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Calum Kavanagh F	8.5	90'	1	2	6	22 (16%)	1
20 Elliott Nevitt F	7.9	68'	1	–	1	8 (6%)	1
9 Mike Fondop F	7.8	22'	1	–	2	10 (9%)	–
17 Favour Fawunmi M	7.5	68'	–	–	3	20 (15%)	–
8 Ollie Norburn M	7.4	90'	–	–	–	59 (51%)	–
5 Donervon Daniels D	7.3	68'	–	–	2	14 (10%)	–
15 Kane Drummond M	7.2	86'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	2
23 Ryan Delaney D	7.1	90'	–	–	2	19 (12%)	2
6 Manny Monthe D	7.1	22'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
14 Noah Chilvers M	7.0	22'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	2
2 Gus Scott-Morriss D	6.9	90'	–	–	5	31 (24%)	2
3 Jamie Robson D	6.8	90'	–	–	2	29 (17%)	2
4 Tom Pett M	6.8	4'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–
1 Mathew Hudson G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	26 (8%)	–
7 Keenan Appiah-Forson M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	17 (13%)	2

Swindon Town

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 J. Snowdon F	6.8	45'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	1
1 Connor Ripley G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	51 (41%)	–
2 Mitchell Clark D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	1
23 Aaron Drinan F	6.4	90'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	1
9 Paul Glatzel F	6.3	31'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
28 Ollie Palmer F	6.2	45'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	–
21 Kaelan Majekodunmi D	6.1	90'	–	–	1	32 (25%)	5
17 Ryan Tafazolli D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	46 (34%)	3
20 Ben Middlemas M	5.9	59'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	2
7 Tom Nichols M	5.9	31'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
5 Stephan Negru D	5.8	90'	–	–	–	41 (31%)	1
27 Anthony Munda M	5.8	45'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	1
25 Jack Thomson M	5.7	45'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	2
8 Ollie Clarke M	5.5	77'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	–

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Oldham or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Oldham

WLLLD

Swindon Town

LLLLW

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

47%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

25%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Swindon Town goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	4	2
1	9	13	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Oldham goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Oldham

C. Kavanagh 3 gls

Swindon Town

A. Drinan 5 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 26% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	5.9%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
1	8.8%	13.4%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.2%	9.5%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.7%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Oldham	Draw	Swindon Town
Oldham	25.4%	3.6%	1.3%
Draw	18.4%	17.2%	9.1%
Swindon Town	3.3%	5.3%	16.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Oldham vs Swindon Town

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Oldham — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Fleetwood Town	W	1 - 0
19 Sep	A Rochdale	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Chesterfield	L	1 - 2
05 Sep	A Tranmere	L	2 - 0
01 Sep	A Fleetwood Town	D	1 - 1

Swindon Town — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Newport County	L	0 - 2
19 Sep	A Salford City	L	1 - 0
15 Sep	H Crystal Palace U21	L	1 - 2
12 Sep	A York	L	4 - 0
05 Sep	H Colchester	W	3 - 1

League Two Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	+7	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	+6	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	+5	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	+5	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	+3	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	+1	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	+3	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	+2	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	+2	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	+2	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	+1	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	-1	10
13	Swindon Town	7	3	1	3	8	11	-3	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	0	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	-2	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	-1	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	-3	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	-6	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	-1	6
20	Exeter City	7	1	3	3	4	5	-1	6
21	Accrington ST	7	1	3	3	10	13	-3	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	-3	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	-6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	-7	4