Oldham vs Port Vale Prediction

League Two · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

Port Vale

Away

AI call Oldham or draw

42%

29%

30%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Oldham vs Port Vale prediction: Sportiko gives Oldham a 42% chance of winning, Port Vale 30% and the draw 29%. Last updated 15 Aug 2026, 13:21.

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Over 1.5 Goals 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
1st Half Over 0.5 71%

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Timeline

Ollie Norburn Yellow Card

13' ▮

▮ 39'

George Hall Yellow Card

Yellow Card

40' ▮

HT 0–0

▮ 57'

George Byers Yellow Card

▮ 59'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel Yellow Card

Calum Kavanagh assist: Ollie Norburn

60' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 68'

George Byers ⇄ Mo Faal

⇄ 68'

Jaheim Headley ⇄ Onel Hernández

⇄ 73'

Lewis Montsma ⇄ Connor Hall

Calum Kavanagh assist: Mike Fondop

75' ⚽ 2–0

Calum Kavanagh

82' ⇄

▮ 87'

Liam Gordon Yellow Card

Mike Fondop ⇄ Elliott Nevitt

88' ⇄

⇄ Tom Pett

88' ⇄

FT 2–0

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean

Oldham or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Oldham

WLLLD

Port Vale

DLWLL

Match summary

In the upcoming League Two clash, Oldham will host Port Vale at their home ground. Oldham has demonstrated a solid defensive record at home, conceding an average of just 1 goal per match this season. Conversely, Port Vale has struggled to find the net consistently, averaging only 1.2 goals per game. This match could hinge on Oldham's ability to capitalize on their defensive strength while Port Vale seeks to improve their scoring efficiency. Both teams will be looking to secure vital points early in the season, making this a crucial encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

42%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

30%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Port Vale goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	1
1	10	13	6	2	1
2	10	10	5	2
3	5	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Oldham goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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Players in form

Oldham

C. Kavanagh 3 gls

Port Vale

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Away Win

30%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Away Win

30%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

69% Home (No Draw) 31% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 22% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	5.9%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%
1	10.3%	13.5%	6.0%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.5%	9.6%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.1%	5.2%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.1%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Oldham	Draw	Port Vale
Oldham	34.1%	4.8%	1.6%
Draw	15.1%	17.6%	9.2%
Port Vale	1.8%	3.6%	12.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Oldham vs Port Vale

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Oldham — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Fleetwood Town	W	1 - 0
19 Sep	A Rochdale	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Chesterfield	L	1 - 2
05 Sep	A Tranmere	L	2 - 0
01 Sep	A Fleetwood Town	D	1 - 1

Port Vale — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	A Chesterfield	D	1 - 1
19 Sep	A Walsall	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Exeter City	W	1 - 0
05 Sep	A Salford City	L	1 - 0
01 Sep	A Swindon Town	L	3 - 1

League Two Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	+7	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	+6	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	+5	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	+5	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	+3	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	+1	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	+3	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	+2	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	+2	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	+2	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	+1	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	-1	10
13	Swindon Town	7	3	1	3	8	11	-3	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	0	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	-2	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	-1	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	-3	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	-6	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	-1	6
20	Exeter City	7	1	3	3	4	5	-1	6
21	Accrington ST	7	1	3	3	10	13	-3	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	-3	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	-6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	-7	4

Oldham

Coach: Micky Mellon

Port Vale

Coach: Jon Brady