Derby vs Lincoln Prediction

League Cup · Round of 128

08 Aug 2026, 14:00

Post on X

Lincoln

Away

AI call Derby or draw

46%

27%

28%

Home Win · 2.06 Draw · 3.95 Away Win · 3.50

Derby vs Lincoln prediction: Sportiko gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, Lincoln 28% and the draw 27%. Last updated 7 Aug 2026, 08:00.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Derby

DLWWW

Lincoln

LWLWD

Match summary

In the League Cup clash between Derby and Lincoln, Derby will look to leverage their tactical prowess and squad depth. Historically, Derby has had a strong home record, but with both teams' recent form being inconsistent, this match could be tightly contested. Lincoln's counter-attacking style may pose challenges for Derby's defense. Key player performances, particularly in midfield, will likely dictate the flow of the game. Expect a strategic battle, with set pieces potentially being a crucial factor in deciding the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lincoln goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	4	2
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Derby goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

63% Home (No Draw) 37% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 26% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.4%	6.2%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
1	9.0%	13.6%	6.9%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.2%	9.4%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.2%	4.8%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.9%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Derby	Draw	Lincoln
Derby	27.8%	4.3%	1.5%
Draw	16.1%	17.6%	9.9%
Lincoln	2.4%	4.6%	15.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Derby vs Lincoln

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Derby — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Rotherham	D	1 - 1
01 Aug	A Burton Albion	L	1 - 0
31 Jul	A Mansfield Town	W	1 - 3
21 Mar	H Birmingham	W	1 - 0
16 Mar	A Portsmouth	W	0 - 1

Lincoln — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Barnsley	L	3 - 0
01 Aug	A Doncaster	W	0 - 1
17 Jul	H Leyton Orient	L	0 - 2
21 Mar	H Rotherham	W	3 - 0
17 Mar	A Huddersfield	D	2 - 2

League Cup Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.