Bolton vs Stoke City Prediction
FT
Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
AI call
Stoke City or draw
34%
30%
37%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bolton vs Stoke City prediction: Sportiko gives Bolton a 34% chance of winning, Stoke City 37% and the draw 30%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 15:56.
Premium picks
Premium- Over 1.5 Goals 75%
- Away to Score 74%
- 1st Half Draw or Away 74%
- Home to Score 72%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
See Premium picks
Timeline
▮
20'
Maksym Talovierov
Red Card
▮
34'
Jack McGlynn
Yellow Card
⇄
45'
Justin Devenny
⇄ Luca Bombino
Ethan Erhahon
⇄ A. Ito
45'
⇄
⚽
0–1
45+4'
Lamine Cissé
assist: Ethan Galbraith
HT 0–1
Thierry Gale
⇄ Jayden Nelson
56'
⇄
Kyliane Dong
⇄ Samuel Iling Junior
56'
⇄
⚽
0–2
62'
Ben Wilmot
assist: Jack McGlynn
Rúben Rodrigues
⇄ Ryan Hardie
63'
⇄
⇄
69'
Djibril Soumaré
⇄ B. Lawal
⇄
69'
Lamine Cissé
⇄ George Hirst
⇄
69'
Jack McGlynn
⇄ J. Tchamadeu
Max Conway
Yellow Card
72'
▮
Ben Davies
⇄ Thelonius Bair
82'
⇄
Thelonius Bair
assist: Gaizka Larrazabal
90+2'
⚽
1–2
FT 1–2
Bolton
Match Stats
Stoke City
68%
Ball Possession
32%
2.69
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
29
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
12
Shots off Goal
4
12
Blocked Shots
1
21
Shots insidebox
6
7
Shots outsidebox
3
10
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
544
Total passes
262
496
Passes accurate
182
9
Free Kicks
8
Bolton
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Josh Sheehan M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 95 (89%) | 3 |
| 20 Rúben Rodrigues M | 7.0 | 63' | – | – | – | 26 (20%) | 3 |
| 26 Jayden Nelson F | 6.9 | 34' | – | – | 3 | 10 (9%) | 1 |
| 18 Eoin Toal D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 64 (64%) | 1 |
| 21 Ethan Erhahon M | 6.9 | 46' | – | – | – | 31 (29%) | 1 |
| 6 Ben Davies D | 6.7 | 82' | – | – | – | 62 (56%) | – |
| 16 Samuel Iling Junior F | 6.6 | 34' | – | – | 1 | 20 (17%) | 1 |
| 25 Max Conway D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 68 (66%) | 3 |
| 39 Ryan Hardie F | 6.5 | 27' | – | – | 3 | 3 (2%) | 1 |
| 9 Thelonius Bair F | 6.4 | 8' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 31 G. Bazunu G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (19%) | – |
| 17 A. Ito M | 6.3 | 44' | – | – | 2 | 16 (15%) | – |
| 22 Gaizka Larrazabal D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 66 (56%) | – |
| 11 Thierry Gale M | 6.1 | 56' | – | – | 4 | 33 (31%) | 1 |
| 10 Sam Dalby F | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 8 (6%) | – |
| 7 Kyliane Dong M | 5.8 | 56' | – | – | 2 | 15 (11%) | – |
Stoke City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Ben Wilmot D | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 24 (18%) | – |
| 8 Ethan Galbraith M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 45 (32%) | 1 |
| 11 Lamine Cissé F | 7.6 | 69' | 1 | – | 2 | 11 (6%) | 1 |
| 5 Luke Graham D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | 3 |
| 7 Jack McGlynn F | 7.2 | 69' | – | 1 | 1 | 26 (18%) | 2 |
| 21 Luca Bombino D | 7.0 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 5 (3%) | 1 |
| 22 J. Tchamadeu D | 7.0 | 21' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 1 Viktor Johansson G | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (16%) | – |
| 18 B. Lawal D | 6.8 | 21' | – | – | 1 | 4 (1%) | 1 |
| 27 Djibril Soumaré M | 6.7 | 69' | – | – | – | 26 (22%) | 2 |
| 2 Ben Johnson M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (14%) | 3 |
| 17 Eric Bocat M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | 1 |
| 15 George Hirst F | 6.3 | 21' | – | – | – | 3 (1%) | – |
| 13 Justin Devenny F | 6.3 | 46' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | – |
| 40 Maksym Talovierov D | 6.1 | 20' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (37%)
At a glance
Our lean
Stoke City or draw
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Bolton
LWLLD
Stoke City
WWWDW
Last 3 meetings
Bolton · 1W 1D 1L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
34%
10%
Draw
30%
45%
Away
37%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Bolton
S. Dalby
6 gls
Stoke City
J. McGlynn
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bolton vs Stoke City
1
Bolton Wins
1
Draws
1
Stoke City Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2012 | Stoke City | 2 - 2 | Bolton |
| 06 Nov 2011 | Bolton | 5 - 0 | Stoke City |
| 15 Jan 2011 | Stoke City | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
Bolton — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Derby | L | 3 - 1 |
| 03 Nov | A Charlton | W | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | H Bristol City | L | 2 - 3 |
| 23 Oct | H Middlesbrough | L | 1 - 5 |
| 17 Oct | A Southampton | D | 0 - 0 |
Stoke City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Portsmouth | W | 1 - 2 |
| 03 Nov | A Blackburn | W | 1 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | H Preston | W | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | H Bristol City | D | 0 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | A Derby | W | 0 - 1 |
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Birmingham
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Stoke City
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |
Wolves
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |
West Brom
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |
Swansea
|
15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |
Southampton
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |
QPR
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |
West Ham
|
15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |
Sheffield Utd
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |
Portsmouth
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |
Norwich
|
15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |
Blackburn
|
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |
Cardiff
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |
Wrexham
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |
Millwall
|
15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |
Bristol City
|
15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |
Bolton
|
15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |
Charlton
|
15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |
Watford
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |
Lincoln
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |
Burnley
|
15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |
Derby
|
15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |
Preston
|
15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
Stoke City
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: M. Robins
1
Johansson
5
Graham
40
Talovierov
16
Wilmot
17
Bocat
8
Galbraith
27
Soumaré
2
Johnson
7
McGlynn
11
Cissé
13
Devenny
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | V. Johansson | G |
| 16 | B. Wilmot | D |
| 40 | M. Talovierov | D |
| 5 | L. Graham | D |
| 2 | B. Johnson | M |
| 27 | El Hadji Djibril Soumaré | M |
| 8 | E. Galbraith | M |
| 17 | E. Bocat | M |
| 13 | J. Devenny | F |
| 11 | L. Cissé | F |
| 7 | J. McGlynn | F |
Substitutes
| 21 | L. Bombino | D |
| 9 | R. Boženík | F |
| 24 | J. Griffiths | G |
| 15 | G. Hirst | F |
| 18 | B. Lawal | D |
| 42 | M. Manhoef | F |
| 4 | B. Pearson | M |
| 22 | J. Tchamadeu | D |
| 10 | Bae Jun-Ho | M |
Bolton
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: S. Schumacher
31
Bazunu
25
Conway
6
Davies
18
Toal
22
Larrazabal
21
Erhahon
8
Sheehan
11
Gale
20
Rodrigues
7
Dong
10
Dalby
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | G. Bazunu | G |
| 22 | Gaizka Larrazabal | D |
| 18 | E. Toal | D |
| 6 | B. Davies | D |
| 25 | M. Conway | D |
| 8 | J. Sheehan | M |
| 21 | E. Erhahon | M |
| 7 | K. Dong | M |
| 20 | Ruben Rodrigues | M |
| 11 | T. Gale | M |
| 10 | S. Dalby | F |
Substitutes
| 26 | J. Nelson | F |
| 4 | X. Simons | M |
| 9 | T. Bair | F |
| 1 | J. Bonham | G |
| 5 | L. Brunt | D |
| 14 | A. Famewo | D |
| 39 | R. Hardie | F |
| 16 | S. Iling-Junior | F |
| 17 | A. Ito | M |