Watford vs Stoke City Prediction
FT
Vicarage Road, Watford
AI call
Watford or draw
39%
29%
31%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Watford vs Stoke City prediction: Sportiko gives Watford a 39% chance of winning, Stoke City 31% and the draw 29%. Last updated 12 Sep 2026, 15:58.
Premium picks
Premium- Home to Score 76%
- Over 1.5 Goals 76%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 74%
- Away to Score 71%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 70%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Iker Bravo
Yellow Card
19'
▮
▮
33'
Djibril Soumaré
Yellow Card
Jordan Zemura
⇄ Haktab Omar Traore
42'
⇄
⚽
0–1
45+4'
Jack McGlynn
HT 0–1
⚽
0–2
57'
Eric Bocat
assist: Lamine Cissé
Stephy Mavididi
⇄ Rocco Vata
58'
⇄
Othmane Maamma
⇄ Amin Nabizada
58'
⇄
⇄
65'
Lamine Cissé
⇄ George Hirst
Iker Bravo
⇄ Luca Kjerrumgaard
69'
⇄
⇄
80'
Eric Bocat
⇄ Luca Bombino
▮
82'
George Hirst
Yellow Card
⇄
90'
Jack McGlynn
⇄ Ben Pearson
Amin Nabizada
assist: Edo Kayembe
90+1'
⚽
1–2
Amin Nabizada
Yellow Card
90+3'
▮
FT 1–2
Watford
Match Stats
Stoke City
40%
Ball Possession
60%
6
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Goal
6
2
Shots off Goal
8
2
Blocked Shots
4
4
Shots insidebox
10
2
Shots outsidebox
8
5
Corner Kicks
8
0
Offsides
3
14
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
366
Total passes
539
293
Passes accurate
471
6
Free Kicks
14
Watford
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Amin Nabizada F | 6.8 | 32' | 1 | – | 1 | 10 (8%) | 1 |
| 1 Federico Ravaglia G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (25%) | – |
| 11 Rocco Vata F | 6.7 | 32' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | 2 |
| 3 Soumaila Coulibaly D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (34%) | 2 |
| 9 Luca Kjerrumgaard F | 6.5 | 21' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 20 Mamadou Doumbia F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (14%) | 2 |
| 6 Matthew Pollock D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (37%) | 1 |
| 7 Othmane Maamma M | 6.3 | 58' | – | – | 1 | 13 (10%) | 2 |
| 5 Hector Kyprianou M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 46 (38%) | 3 |
| 17 Iker Bravo M | 6.2 | 69' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | – |
| 23 Haktab Omar Traore D | 6.1 | 48' | – | – | – | 21 (18%) | – |
| 33 Jordan Zemura D | 6.0 | 42' | – | – | – | 13 (11%) | 2 |
| 45 Stephy Mavididi M | 5.9 | 58' | – | – | – | 15 (9%) | – |
| 39 Edo Kayembe M | 5.8 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 45 (36%) | 1 |
| 4 Kévin Keben Biakolo D | 5.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (23%) | 2 |
Stoke City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jack McGlynn F | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 41 (37%) | – |
| 17 Eric Bocat M | 8.2 | 80' | 1 | – | 3 | 32 (28%) | 1 |
| 11 Lamine Cissé F | 7.7 | 65' | – | 1 | 4 | 15 (10%) | 1 |
| 8 Ethan Galbraith M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 80 (70%) | 4 |
| 40 Maksym Talovierov D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 61 (57%) | 2 |
| 5 Luke Graham D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 78 (68%) | 2 |
| 16 Ben Wilmot D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (42%) | 2 |
| 13 Justin Devenny M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 35 (31%) | 2 |
| 21 Luca Bombino D | 6.8 | 10' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | 3 |
| 1 Viktor Johansson G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (31%) | – |
| 27 Djibril Soumaré M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (48%) | 4 |
| 2 Ben Johnson M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 39 (33%) | – |
| 15 George Hirst F | 6.1 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 9 (8%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (39%)
At a glance
Our lean
Watford or draw
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Watford
LLWLL
Stoke City
WWDWW
Last 3 meetings
Watford · 0W 1D 2L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
39%
45%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
31%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Watford
Amin Nabizada
3 gls
Stoke City
E. Galbraith
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Watford vs Stoke City
0
Watford Wins
1
Draws
2
Stoke City Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Stoke City | 3 - 1 | Watford |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Stoke City | 0 - 0 | Watford |
| 28 Oct 2017 | Watford | 0 - 1 | Stoke City |
Watford — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Bristol City | L | 1 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Stoke City | L | 1 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | H Preston | W | 2 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A West Brom | L | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Sep | A Swansea | L | 2 - 0 |
Stoke City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Sheffield Utd | W | 2 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Watford | W | 1 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | A Cardiff | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Charlton | W | 4 - 0 |
| 01 Sep | H Norwich | W | 1 - 0 |
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Swansea
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |
West Ham
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 |
Middlesbrough
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |
Wolves
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |
West Brom
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 |
QPR
|
8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |
Stoke City
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |
Bristol City
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |
Charlton
|
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |
Birmingham
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |
Millwall
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |
Lincoln
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |
Southampton
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 |
Wrexham
|
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |
Bolton
|
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |
Blackburn
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |
Norwich
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 |
Sheffield Utd
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 |
Portsmouth
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 |
Watford
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 |
Cardiff
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 |
Derby
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 |
Preston
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 |
Burnley
|
8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
Watford
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Dionisi
1
Ravaglia
33
Zemura
3
Coulibaly
6
Pollock
4
Keben
5
Kyprianou
39
Kayembe
45
Mavididi
17
Bravo
7
Maamma
20
Doumbia
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Ravaglia | G |
| 4 | K. Keben | D |
| 6 | M. Pollock | D |
| 3 | S. Coulibaly | D |
| 33 | J. Zemura | D |
| 39 | E. Kayembe | M |
| 5 | H. Kyprianou | M |
| 7 | O. Maamma | M |
| 17 | Iker Bravo | M |
| 45 | S. Mavididi | M |
| 20 | M. Doumbia | F |
Substitutes
| 18 | M. Antonio | F |
| 26 | D. Bachmann | G |
| 9 | L. Kjerrumgaard | F |
| 21 | Amin Nabizada | F |
| 23 | O. Traoré | D |
| 11 | R. Vata | F |
| 24 | S. Walker | G |
| 56 | Albert Eames | D |
Stoke City
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: M. Robins
1
Johansson
5
Graham
40
Talovierov
16
Wilmot
17
Bocat
8
Galbraith
27
Soumaré
13
Devenny
2
Johnson
7
McGlynn
11
Cissé
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | V. Johansson | G |
| 16 | B. Wilmot | D |
| 40 | M. Talovierov | D |
| 5 | L. Graham | D |
| 2 | B. Johnson | M |
| 13 | J. Devenny | M |
| 27 | El Hadji Djibril Soumaré | M |
| 8 | E. Galbraith | M |
| 17 | E. Bocat | M |
| 11 | L. Cissé | F |
| 7 | J. McGlynn | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | B. Gibson | D |
| 24 | J. Griffiths | G |
| 15 | G. Hirst | F |
| 42 | M. Manhoef | F |
| 4 | B. Pearson | M |
| 19 | T. Rigo | M |
| 9 | R. Boženík | F |
| 21 | L. Bombino | D |
| 43 | F. Anderson | D |