West Ham vs Derby Prediction
FT
London Stadium, London
AI call
West Ham to win or draw
65%
21%
14%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
West Ham vs Derby prediction: Sportiko gives West Ham a 65% chance of winning, Derby 14% and the draw 21%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 15:54.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 71%
- Under 3.5 Goals 71%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Joël Piroe
assist: Valentín Castellanos
6'
⚽
1–0
▮
21'
Alex Mowatt
Yellow Card
⇄
22'
Rhian Brewster
⇄ D. Ozoh
HT 1–0
⇄
62'
Oscar Fraulo
⇄ Bobby Clark
⇄
62'
Henrik Wendel Meister
⇄ Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Valentín Castellanos
⇄ Lewis Orford
64'
⇄
⇄
71'
Ryan Hedges
⇄ Mohammed Fuseini
⇄
71'
Ryan Nyambe
⇄ Max Johnston
▮
77'
Mohammed Fuseini
Yellow Card
Manor Solomon
⇄ Edvin Austbø
77'
⇄
Oliver Scarles
⇄ Adama Boiro
77'
⇄
⇄
86'
Alex Mowatt
⇄ Corey Blackett-Taylor
Edvin Austbø
87'
⚽
2–0
Divine Mukasa
⇄ Morato
90+1'
⇄
Jarrod Bowen
⇄ Mohamadou Kanté
90+1'
⇄
Mohamadou Kanté
assist: Edvin Austbø
90+5'
⚽
3–0
FT 3–0
West Ham
Match Stats
Derby
52%
Ball Possession
48%
19
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Goal
0
9
Shots off Goal
4
3
Blocked Shots
1
16
Shots insidebox
3
3
Shots outsidebox
2
5
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
0
6
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
462
Total passes
415
387
Passes accurate
339
16
Free Kicks
6
West Ham
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Konstantinos Mavropanos D | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 66 (60%) | 1 |
| 9 Joël Piroe F | 7.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 15 (12%) | – |
| 11 Valentín Castellanos F | 7.5 | 64' | – | 1 | 2 | 14 (12%) | – |
| 3 Max Kilman D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 75 (61%) | 1 |
| 35 Edvin Austbø F | 7.4 | 13' | 1 | – | 1 | 3 (3%) | – |
| 34 Joël Veltman D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (34%) | 3 |
| 10 Manor Solomon M | 7.2 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 30 (25%) | 4 |
| 30 Oliver Scarles D | 7.2 | 77' | – | – | – | 37 (31%) | 3 |
| 18 Adama Boiro D | 7.1 | 13' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | 1 |
| 7 Arne Engels M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (44%) | 4 |
| 20 Jarrod Bowen M | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | 7 | 35 (26%) | 1 |
| 14 Divine Mukasa M | 6.9 | 91' | – | – | – | 43 (35%) | 3 |
| 61 Lewis Orford M | 6.8 | 26' | – | – | – | 10 (8%) | – |
| 1 Mads Hermansen G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (22%) | – |
Derby
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jacob Widell Zetterström G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (13%) | – |
| 26 Ryan Hedges M | 6.7 | 71' | – | – | – | 29 (25%) | – |
| 6 Sondre Langås D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (43%) | – |
| 29 Oscar Fraulo M | 6.5 | 62' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | – |
| 33 Corey Blackett-Taylor F | 6.5 | 4' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28 Dion Sanderson D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (50%) | 2 |
| 11 Sammie Szmodics M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 40 (36%) | – |
| 15 Lars-Jørgen Salvesen F | 6.3 | 28' | – | – | 2 | 6 (3%) | 1 |
| 4 D. Ozoh M | 6.3 | 68' | – | – | – | 31 (30%) | 2 |
| 18 Charlie Taylor D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (31%) | 1 |
| 22 Max Johnston D | 6.2 | 19' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 16 Mohammed Fuseini F | 6.1 | 19' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Rhian Brewster M | 6.0 | 22' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 19 Henrik Wendel Meister F | 5.9 | 62' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 24 Ryan Nyambe D | 5.9 | 71' | – | – | – | 33 (26%) | – |
| 20 Alex Mowatt M | 5.8 | 86' | – | – | 1 | 51 (39%) | 2 |
| 8 Bobby Clark M | 5.7 | 28' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (65%)
At a glance
Our lean
West Ham to win or draw
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West Ham
LDLLW
Derby
WLLDL
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
65%
45%
Draw
21%
45%
Away
14%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
West Ham
J. Bowen
7 gls
K. Mavropanos
5 gls
Derby
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: West Ham vs Derby
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
West Ham — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Blackburn | L | 2 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A Cardiff | D | 3 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H West Brom | L | 1 - 3 |
| 24 Oct | H Southampton | L | 2 - 3 |
| 17 Oct | A Swansea | W | 0 - 1 |
Derby — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | H Bolton | W | 3 - 1 |
| 03 Nov | H Norwich | L | 0 - 4 |
| 31 Oct | A Millwall | L | 4 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | A Sheffield Utd | D | 1 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | H Stoke City | L | 0 - 1 |
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Birmingham
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |
Middlesbrough
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Stoke City
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |
Wolves
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |
West Brom
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |
Swansea
|
15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |
Southampton
|
15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |
QPR
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |
West Ham
|
15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |
Sheffield Utd
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |
Portsmouth
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |
Norwich
|
15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |
Blackburn
|
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |
Cardiff
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |
Wrexham
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |
Millwall
|
15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |
Bristol City
|
15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |
Bolton
|
15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |
Charlton
|
15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |
Watford
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |
Lincoln
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |
Burnley
|
15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |
Derby
|
15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |
Preston
|
15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
West Ham
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
1
Hermansen
30
Scarles
3
Kilman
15
Mavropanos
34
Veltman
10
Solomon
7
Engels
14
Mukasa
20
Bowen
11
Castellanos
9
Piroe
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Hermansen | G |
| 34 | J. Veltman | D |
| 15 | K. Mavropanos | D |
| 3 | M. Kilman | D |
| 30 | O. Scarles | D |
| 20 | J. Bowen | M |
| 14 | D. Mukasa | M |
| 7 | A. Engels | M |
| 10 | M. Solomon | M |
| 9 | J. Piroe | F |
| 11 | V. Castellanos | F |
Substitutes
| 18 | A. Boiro | D |
| 58 | A. Golambeckis | D |
| 49 | F. Herrick | G |
| 17 | M. Kanté | M |
| 35 | E. Austbö | F |
| 21 | K. Lamadrid | M |
| 5 | Morato | D |
| 61 | L. Orford | M |
| 2 | K. Walker-Peters | D |
Derby
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: J. Eustace
1
Zetterström
18
Taylor
28
Sanderson
6
Langås
24
Nyambe
29
Fraulo
20
Mowatt
10
Brewster
11
Szmodics
26
Hedges
19
Meister
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Widell Zetterström | G |
| 24 | R. Nyambe | D |
| 6 | S. Langås | D |
| 28 | D. Sanderson | D |
| 18 | C. Taylor | D |
| 20 | A. Mowatt | M |
| 29 | O. Fraulo | M |
| 26 | R. Hedges | M |
| 11 | S. Szmodics | M |
| 10 | R. Brewster | M |
| 19 | H. Meister | F |
Substitutes
| 33 | C. Blackett-Taylor | F |
| 8 | B. Clark | M |
| 16 | M. Fuseini | F |
| 22 | M. Johnston | D |
| 4 | D. Ozoh | M |
| 15 | L. Salvesen | F |
| 31 | J. Vickers | G |
| 23 | J. Ward | M |
| 42 | Raymond Offor | D |