Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers Prediction

Championship · Regular Season - 4

Post on X

Raith Rovers

Away

AI call Raith Rovers or draw

35%

29%

37%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers prediction: Sportiko gives Dunfermline a 35% chance of winning, Raith Rovers 37% and the draw 29%. Last updated 28 Aug 2026, 20:26.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Away to Score 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
1st Half Home or Draw 70%

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Timeline

⇄ 14'

⇄ Jack Baird

Sam Cleall-Harding Yellow Card

30' ▮

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

⇄ 60'

62' ⇄

69' ⇄

▮ 79'

Yellow Card

⇄ 83'

Yellow Card

84' ▮

85' ⇄

88' ⚽ 1–0

FT 1–0

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Raith Rovers or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Dunfermline

WWDWL

Raith Rovers

DWWLW

Last 3 meetings Dunfermline · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Dunfermline faces Raith Rovers in a Championship clash, both teams seeking crucial points early in the season. Historically, matches between these two are closely contested, with their last five encounters resulting in two wins for each team and one draw. Dunfermline will leverage their attacking capabilities, having scored an average of 1.5 goals per match in recent fixtures, while Raith Rovers will rely on their solid defense, conceding less than a goal per match on average. The outcome will likely hinge on which team can impose their style and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

35%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

37%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Raith Rovers goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	9	7	3	1
1	8	15	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Dunfermline goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Away (No Draw) 45% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Away Scores More 31% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	9.3%	7.3%	3.2%	1.1%
1	8.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	5.7%	7.5%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%
3	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

55%

1.5

45%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Dunfermline	Draw	Raith Rovers
Dunfermline	16.1%	3.9%	1.8%
Draw	14.0%	19.5%	14.8%
Raith Rovers	2.1%	4.9%	22.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers

1 Dunfermline Wins

1 Draws

1 Raith Rovers Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Mar 2026	Dunfermline	2 - 0	Raith Rovers
08 May 2021	Raith Rovers	2 - 0	Dunfermline
04 May 2021	Dunfermline	0 - 0	Raith Rovers

Dunfermline — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Morton	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Queen's Park	W	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Arbroath	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	H Raith Rovers	W	1 - 0
22 Aug	A Livingston	L	2 - 0

Raith Rovers — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Partick	D	0 - 0
12 Sep	H Arbroath	W	4 - 0
05 Sep	A Inverness CT	W	0 - 2
28 Aug	A Dunfermline	L	1 - 0
22 Aug	H Ayr Utd	W	2 - 0

Championship Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Stenhousemuir	7	6	1	0	11	2	+9	19
2	Raith Rovers	7	4	2	1	11	3	+8	14
3	Partick	7	3	3	1	5	2	+3	12
4	Dunfermline	7	3	3	1	6	4	+2	12
5	Livingston	7	3	1	3	10	7	+3	10
6	Ayr Utd	7	2	2	3	7	8	-1	8
7	Arbroath	7	2	2	3	4	9	-5	8
8	Inverness CT	7	1	4	2	7	9	-2	7
9	Queen's Park	7	1	1	5	3	11	-8	4
10	Morton	7	0	1	6	4	13	-9	1

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.