Atlas vs CF Pachuca Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

Post on X

CF Pachuca

Away

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

AI call Too close to call

37%

27%

35%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atlas vs CF Pachuca prediction: Sportiko gives Atlas a 37% chance of winning, CF Pachuca 35% and the draw 27%. Last updated 8 Nov 2026, 01:00.

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1st Half Over 0.5 74%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 5'

Manuel Capasso Own Goal

▮ 7'

Alan Bautista Yellow Card

⚽ 0–2 12'

Oussama Idrissi assist: Salomón Rondón

Aldo Rocha Yellow Card

18' ▮

Milton Valenzuela ⇄ Ryan Mmaee

45' ⇄

Aldo Rocha ⇄ Jose Lozano

45' ⇄

HT 0–2

Manuel Capasso

51' ⚽ 1–2

⇄ 61'

Alan Bautista ⇄ Kenedy

⇄ 61'

Nicolás Vallejo ⇄ Sebastián Santos

⇄ 71'

Oussama Idrissi ⇄ Mauricio Isais

Luís Esteves Yellow Card

74' ▮

⚽ 1–3 75'

Salomón Rondón Penalty

Ryan Mmaee Yellow Card

77' ▮

Adonis Frías Card upgrade confirmed

82' 🖵

Adonis Frías Red Card

83' ▮

Florián Monzón ⇄ Jose Martin

83' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Rodolfo Pizarro ⇄ A. Alcáraz

⇄ 85'

Salomón Rondón ⇄ Cristóbal Hernández

⚽ 1–4 90+2'

Eduardo Bauermann assist: Kenedy

FT 1–4

Atlas

Match Stats

CF Pachuca

66% Ball Possession 34%

1.34 Expected Goals (xG) 1.91

11 Total Shots 15

6 Shots on Goal 8

4 Shots off Goal 3

1 Blocked Shots 4

6 Shots insidebox 12

5 Shots outsidebox 3

7 Corner Kicks 5

2 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 15

3 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 5

449 Total passes 236

377 Passes accurate 175

15 Free Kicks 12

Atlas

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Camilo Vargas G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	–
203 Jose Martin F	6.6	7'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
44 Juan José Purata D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	77 (70%)	3
18 Elías Montiel M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	1
10 Luís Esteves M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	42 (32%)	2
9 Florián Monzón F	6.3	83'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	–
20 Kevin Zenón M	6.2	90'	–	–	4	28 (23%)	1
8 Ryan Mmaee F	6.1	44'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	1
17 Jose Lozano D	6.0	44'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
28 Manuel Capasso D	5.9	90'	1	–	1	84 (80%)	2
16 Milton Valenzuela M	5.8	46'	–	–	–	15 (9%)	2
26 Aldo Rocha M	5.5	46'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
23 Sergio Hernandez M	5.3	90'	–	–	–	29 (16%)	5
19 Adonis Frías D	4.6	83'	–	–	1	56 (46%)	–

CF Pachuca

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Oussama Idrissi M	8.0	71'	1	–	2	25 (19%)	–
4 Eduardo Bauermann D	7.7	90'	1	–	2	19 (16%)	1
23 Salomón Rondón F	7.7	85'	1	1	2	13 (10%)	–
2 Sergio Barreto D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	23 (20%)	3
29 Kenedy M	7.2	29'	–	1	2	4 (4%)	–
25 Carlos Moreno G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	29 (14%)	–
15 Francisco Venegas D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	5
16 Christian Rivera M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	2
211 Cristóbal Hernández F	6.6	5'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
9 A. Alcáraz F	6.6	5'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
12 Sebastián Santos M	6.5	29'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	1
6 Mauricio Isais D	6.5	19'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
13 Jorge Berlanga D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	1
26 Alan Bautista M	6.4	61'	–	–	2	12 (9%)	–
21 Nicolás Vallejo M	6.3	61'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	2
7 Rodolfo Pizarro M	6.2	85'	–	–	1	23 (12%)	–

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Too close to call

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Atlas

LWWLW

CF Pachuca

WWWLL

Last 2 meetings Atlas · 0W 0D 2L

Match summary

Atlas will host CF Pachuca in what promises to be an intriguing Liga MX matchup. Atlas has demonstrated a solid defensive record this season, averaging just 1.2 goals conceded per match, while Pachuca has been reliant on their attacking prowess, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game. Key players to watch include Atlas' goalkeeper, who has a save percentage of 75%, and Pachuca's top scorer, who has netted 6 goals this season. Tactical adjustments and set-piece effectiveness could determine the outcome, making this a critical clash for both teams as they vie for playoff positioning.

Live insights

90' Goal 85% sure

CF Pachuca now leads 1-4 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

84' time check 80% sure

Min 84: CF Pachuca leads 1-3. Win probability: 99.6%. Comeback chance: 0.4%.

77' Goal 85% sure

CF Pachuca now leads 1-3 with 98.3% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 34.8%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: CF Pachuca leads 1-2. Win probability: 82.5%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.5%.

71' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 59.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

37%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

35%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Atlas

F. Monzón 5 gls

Luís Esteves 5 gls

CF Pachuca

S. Rondón 15 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Atlas vs CF Pachuca

0 Atlas Wins

0 Draws

2 CF Pachuca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Feb 2026	CF Pachuca	3 - 1	Atlas
10 Aug 2025	Atlas	0 - 3	CF Pachuca

Atlas — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H CF Pachuca	L	1 - 4
31 Oct	A Atletico San Luis	W	0 - 1
25 Oct	H Puebla	W	4 - 3
22 Oct	H Club America	L	2 - 5
17 Oct	A Necaxa	W	0 - 2

CF Pachuca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A Atlas	W	1 - 4
31 Oct	H Tigres UANL	W	3 - 0
26 Oct	A Club America	W	1 - 2
22 Oct	H Cruz Azul	L	1 - 2
19 Oct	A Monterrey	L	2 - 1

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Club America	15	8	5	2	36	21	+15	29
2	Guadalajara Chivas	15	8	5	2	25	14	+11	29
3	Cruz Azul	15	9	2	4	34	24	+10	29
4	Atlas	16	8	3	5	27	30	-3	27
5	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	23	20	+3	25
6	Toluca	15	6	6	3	31	21	+10	24
7	CF Pachuca	16	6	4	6	29	20	+9	22
8	Club Tijuana	16	5	7	4	25	22	+3	22
9	Leon	15	6	4	5	22	20	+2	22
10	Monterrey	14	6	3	5	26	21	+5	21
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	15	5	5	5	22	24	-2	20
12	Club Queretaro	14	6	2	6	18	21	-3	20
13	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	19	24	-5	19
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17	23	-6	16
15	Tigres UANL	15	3	6	6	15	22	-7	15
16	Atlante FC	16	3	5	8	16	26	-10	14
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	17	28	-11	13
18	FC Juarez	16	3	2	11	13	34	-21	11

CF Pachuca

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: B. Mora

25 Moreno

15 Venegas

2 Barreto

4 Bauermann

13 Berlanga

26 Gutiérrez

16 Rivera

11 Idrissi

7 Pizarro

21 Vallejo

23 Rondón

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	C. Moreno	G
13	J. Berlanga	D
4	Eduardo Bauermann	D
2	S. Barreto	D
15	F. Venegas	D
16	C. Rivera	M
26	Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez	M
21	N. Vallejo	M
7	R. Pizarro	M
11	O. Idrissi	M
23	S. Rondón	F

Substitutes

28	A. Arroyo	M
32	P. Budib	D
206	Thomas Contreras	M
31	J. Eulogio	G
211	C. Hernandez	F
6	M. Isaís	D
29	Kenedy	M
12	S. Santos	M
207	Ian Josué Zavala Osorio	F
9	A. Alcáraz	F

Atlas

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: H. Crespo

12 Vargas

44 Purata

28 Capasso

19 Frías

16 Valenzuela

18 Montiel

26 Rocha

23 Hernández

10 Esteves

20 Zenón

9 Monzón

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	C. Vargas	G
19	A. Frías	D
28	M. Capasso	D
44	J. Purata	D
23	S. Hernández	M
26	A. Rocha	M
18	E. Montiel	M
16	M. Valenzuela	M
20	K. Zenón	M
10	Luís Esteves	M
9	F. Monzón	F

Substitutes

13	G. Aguirre	D
17	J. Lozano	D
27	V. RÃos	M
203	J. Martín	F
8	R. Mmaee	F
4	A. Mora	D
5	J. Rodríguez	D
192	Jesús Serrato	M
22	A. Sánchez	G
58	A. González	F