Atlas vs Puebla Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 14

25 Oct 2026, 23:00

Post on X

Puebla

Away

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

AI call Atlas to win or draw

76%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atlas vs Puebla prediction: Sportiko gives Atlas a 76% chance of winning, Puebla 4% and the draw 20%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Atlas

DLDLW

Puebla

DLWLW

Last 2 meetings Atlas · 2W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX clash, Atlas will face Puebla at their home venue. Atlas has shown a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.1 goals per match this season, while Puebla has struggled offensively, averaging just 1 goal per game. Additionally, Atlas's midfield control has been key, reflected in their 55% possession average, allowing them to dictate play. Puebla will need to improve their away form, as they have only managed 1 win in their last 5 matches on the road. This matchup will be crucial for both teams as they aim to solidify their positions in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

76%

45%

Draw

20%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Puebla goals →

	0	1	2
0	12	2
1	20	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	13	4	1
4	6	2
5	3	1

↑ Atlas goals · most likely 2–0 (20.3%)

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Players in form

Atlas

Luís Esteves 3 gls

Puebla

E. Mustre 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

95% Home (No Draw) 5% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

50% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	20.1%	7.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.3%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	13.2%	4.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	6.5%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

36%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atlas	Draw	Puebla
Atlas	51.3%	1.5%	0.1%
Draw	24.8%	15.0%	2.0%
Puebla	1.3%	1.7%	2.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atlas vs Puebla

2 Atlas Wins

0 Draws

0 Puebla Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Jan 2026	Atlas	1 - 0	Puebla
11 Jul 2025	Puebla	2 - 3	Atlas

Atlas — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H U.N.A.M. - Pumas	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Toluca	L	5 - 2
06 Sep	H Atlante FC	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	H Club Queretaro	L	1 - 3
23 Aug	A Cruz Azul	W	0 - 2

Puebla — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Atlante FC	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Toluca	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Necaxa	W	0 - 1
30 Aug	A Club America	L	2 - 0
23 Aug	H Santos Laguna	W	3 - 2

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.