Toluca vs Club Tijuana Prediction
Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
AI call
Toluca to win or draw
73%
17%
10%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Toluca vs Club Tijuana prediction: Sportiko gives Toluca a 73% chance of winning, Club Tijuana 10% and the draw 17%. Last updated 22 Oct 2026, 03:05.
Premium picks
Premium- Home to Score 2+ 74%
- Under 4.5 74%
- Home 1H Over 0.5 72%
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
38'
Elias Manoel
assist: Yael Padilla
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
⇄ Federico Viñas
45'
⇄
Diego Barbosa
⇄ Brian García
45'
⇄
HT 0–1
⇄
57'
Elias Manoel
⇄ Mourad El Ghezouani
⇄
57'
Joban González
⇄ Adonis Preciado
Federico Viñas
assist: Helinho
61'
⚽
1–1
Helinho
assist: Nicolás Castro
65'
⚽
2–1
⇄
67'
Ángel Zapata
⇄ José Rivero
⚽
2–2
75'
Yael Padilla
⇄
82'
Ramiro Árciga
⇄ Jesús Gómez
⇄
82'
Yael Padilla
⇄ Francisco González
Nicolás Castro
⇄ Érick Gutiérrez
83'
⇄
Alexis Vega
⇄ Jorge Díaz
83'
⇄
FT 2–2
Toluca
Match Stats
Club Tijuana
76%
Ball Possession
24%
2.06
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
30
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
4
15
Shots off Goal
7
9
Blocked Shots
1
18
Shots insidebox
8
11
Shots outsidebox
4
17
Corner Kicks
5
4
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
9
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
551
Total passes
176
502
Passes accurate
109
10
Free Kicks
12
Toluca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Helinho M | 9.0 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 3 | 60 (51%) | – |
| 16 Federico Viñas F | 8.2 | 44' | 1 | – | 4 | 10 (9%) | – |
| 8 Nicolás Castro M | 7.5 | 83' | – | 1 | 3 | 67 (59%) | 1 |
| 9 Alexis Vega M | 7.2 | 83' | – | – | 4 | 43 (37%) | – |
| 6 Federico Pereira D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 67 (64%) | – |
| 10 Jesús Ricardo Angulo M | 6.8 | 46' | – | – | 3 | 25 (21%) | 1 |
| 17 Brian García D | 6.7 | 44' | – | – | 3 | 24 (23%) | – |
| 20 Jesús Gallardo D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 47 (43%) | – |
| 5 Franco Romero M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (55%) | – |
| 2 Diego Barbosa D | 6.4 | 46' | – | – | – | 32 (31%) | 2 |
| 26 Paulinho F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 13 (12%) | – |
| 25 Everardo López D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 71 (67%) | 1 |
| 22 Luis García G | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (15%) | – |
| 35 Érick Gutiérrez M | 6.1 | 7' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 29 Jorge Díaz M | 6.1 | 7' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | 1 |
Club Tijuana
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Yael Padilla M | 8.2 | 82' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 (7%) | 1 |
| 13 Elias Manoel F | 7.7 | 57' | 1 | – | 4 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 2 Antonio Rodríguez G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (18%) | – |
| 11 Francisco González F | 6.9 | 8' | – | – | 1 | 1 | – |
| 17 Ramiro Árciga M | 6.7 | 82' | – | – | – | 10 (4%) | 5 |
| 7 Adonis Preciado F | 6.6 | 33' | – | – | – | 5 (2%) | – |
| 4 Unai Bilbao D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 20 (14%) | 2 |
| 12 Jackson Porozo D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | 2 |
| 3 Rafael Fernández D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | 2 |
| 9 Mourad El Ghezouani F | 6.4 | 33' | – | – | 1 | 6 (4%) | – |
| 202 Joban González M | 6.4 | 57' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | 1 |
| 6 Jesús Gómez D | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 34 Frank Boya M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 16 (8%) | 1 |
| 15 José Rivero M | 6.2 | 23' | – | – | – | 8 (8%) | 1 |
| 33 Pablo Nicolás Ortíz D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (15%) | 1 |
| 20 Ángel Zapata M | 6.1 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 9 (7%) | 3 |
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Confidence
High (73%)
At a glance
Our lean
Toluca to win or draw
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Toluca
WDDDD
Club Tijuana
LDDWD
Last 2 meetings
Toluca · 1W 1D 0L
Match summary
Toluca faces Club Tijuana in a Liga MX clash on October 22, 2026. Toluca has shown solid form at home, with a recent average of 1.8 goals scored per match in their last five home fixtures, while maintaining a defense that concedes approximately 1 goal per match. Club Tijuana, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded in their last five away games. Given these trends, Toluca is likely to capitalize on their attacking efficiency while aiming to tighten their defense against a Tijuana side that has been inconsistent away from home.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
73%
45%
Draw
17%
45%
Away
10%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Toluca
F. Viñas
8 gls
A. Vega
5 gls
Club Tijuana
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toluca vs Club Tijuana
1
Toluca Wins
1
Draws
0
Club Tijuana Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Toluca | 1 - 0 | Club Tijuana |
| 23 Oct 2025 | Club Tijuana | 0 - 0 | Toluca |
Toluca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Monterrey | W | 4 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Club America | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Leon | D | 1 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | H Club Tijuana | D | 2 - 2 |
| 18 Oct | H Atletico San Luis | D | 1 - 1 |
Club Tijuana — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Necaxa | L | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Monterrey | D | 3 - 3 |
| 29 Oct | A Club America | D | 1 - 1 |
| 26 Oct | H Santos Laguna | W | 4 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | A Toluca | D | 2 - 2 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Club America
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | +15 | 29 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Cruz Azul
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |
Atlas
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 5 |
Santos Laguna
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |
Toluca
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 |
CF Pachuca
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |
Club Tijuana
|
16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |
Leon
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |
Club Queretaro
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 |
Puebla
|
15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 |
Tigres UANL
|
15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |
Atlante FC
|
16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |
Necaxa
|
16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Club Tijuana
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: S. Abreu
2
Rodríguez
33
Ortíz
4
Bilbao
12
Porozo
3
Fernández
20
Zapata
202
González
31
Padilla
34
Boya
17
Árciga
13
Manoel
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | A. Rodríguez | G |
| 3 | R. Fernández | D |
| 12 | J. Porozo | D |
| 4 | Unai Bilbao | D |
| 33 | P. Ortíz | D |
| 20 | Á. Zapata | M |
| 17 | R. Árciga | M |
| 34 | F. Boya | M |
| 31 | Y. Padilla | M |
| 202 | J. González | M |
| 13 | Elias Manoel | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | D. Abreu | F |
| 9 | Mourad | F |
| 11 | F. González | F |
| 6 | A. Gómez | D |
| 29 | S. Hernández | G |
| 18 | A. Mejía | D |
| 192 | I. Olvera | D |
| 7 | Adonis Preciado | F |
| 15 | I. Rivero | M |
| 8 | I. Tona | M |
Toluca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Mohamed
22
García
20
Gallardo
25
López
6
Pereira
2
Barbosa
8
Castro
5
Romero
9
Vega
10
Angulo
11
Helinho
26
Paulinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | L. García | G |
| 2 | D. Barbosa | D |
| 6 | F. Pereira | D |
| 25 | E. López | D |
| 20 | J. Gallardo | D |
| 5 | F. Romero | M |
| 8 | N. Castro | M |
| 11 | Helinho | M |
| 10 | J. Angulo | M |
| 9 | A. Vega | M |
| 26 | Paulinho | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | F. Arce | M |
| 29 | J. Díaz | M |
| 13 | Luan | D |
| 17 | B. García | D |
| 1 | H. González | G |
| 35 | É. Gutiérrez | M |
| 4 | B. Méndez | D |
| 15 | P. Pérez | M |
| 19 | S. Simón | M |
| 16 | F. Viñas | F |