Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Prediction
Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
AI call
Guadalajara Chivas to win or draw
68%
19%
13%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction: Sportiko gives Guadalajara Chivas a 68% chance of winning, Necaxa 13% and the draw 19%. Last updated 21 Oct 2026, 02:07.
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Timeline
▮
14'
Emilio Rodriguez
Yellow Card
L. Calderon
⇄ Hugo Camberos
45'
⇄
⇄
45'
Emilio Martinez
⇄ R. Martínez
Jordan Carrillo
⇄ Santiago Sandoval
45'
⇄
HT 0–0
⇄
54'
Emilio Rodriguez
⇄ Owen González
⇄
54'
J. Valencia
⇄ Julián Carranza
Diego Campillo
⇄ Bryan González
61'
⇄
Richard Ledezma
⇄ Kevin Castañeda
61'
⇄
Efrain Alvarez
⇄ Jesús Hernández
72'
⇄
Agustín Oliveros
Own Goal
77'
⚽
1–0
⇄
78'
Lorenzo Faravelli
⇄
84'
Diego Ochoa
⇄ Miguel Pedroza
FT 1–0
Guadalajara Chivas
Match Stats
Necaxa
60%
Ball Possession
40%
0.77
Expected Goals (xG)
0.48
10
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
4
7
Shots off Goal
3
0
Blocked Shots
3
5
Shots insidebox
5
5
Shots outsidebox
5
9
Corner Kicks
5
4
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
17
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
562
Total passes
374
477
Passes accurate
286
15
Free Kicks
14
Guadalajara Chivas
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Diego Campillo D | 7.8 | 61' | – | – | – | 52 (49%) | – |
| 1 Raúl Rangel G | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (21%) | – |
| 16 Luis Gabriel Rey D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 55 (48%) | 3 |
| 23 Daniel Aguirre D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 61 (53%) | 2 |
| 25 Roberto Alvarado M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 57 (52%) | 1 |
| 33 Jordan Carrillo M | 7.2 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 27 (23%) | 1 |
| 37 Richard Ledezma M | 7.1 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 36 (35%) | 2 |
| 5 Bryan González D | 7.1 | 29' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
| 19 Kevin Castañeda M | 7.0 | 29' | – | – | 2 | 14 (11%) | – |
| 14 Hugo Camberos M | 7.0 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 15 (11%) | 2 |
| 10 Efrain Alvarez M | 6.9 | 72' | – | – | – | 78 (69%) | – |
| 30 Santiago Sandoval M | 6.8 | 44' | – | – | – | 12 (7%) | 1 |
| 182 L. Calderon M | 6.7 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 19 (16%) | 1 |
| 28 Fernando González M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 69 (57%) | 6 |
| 57 Jesús Hernández F | 6.6 | 18' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 17 Ricardo Marín F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (11%) | – |
Necaxa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Javier Ruiz M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 24 (21%) | 4 |
| 5 Kaiky Naves D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 45 (41%) | 2 |
| 14 Mauro Zaleta D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (22%) | 2 |
| 6 Danny Leyva M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 43 (33%) | 1 |
| 15 Diego Ochoa D | 6.8 | 84' | – | – | – | 27 (24%) | – |
| 8 Lorenzo Faravelli M | 6.7 | 78' | – | – | – | 28 (25%) | – |
| 33 R. Martínez D | 6.6 | 44' | – | – | – | 14 (12%) | – |
| 13 Owen González M | 6.6 | 36' | – | – | 1 | 15 (11%) | – |
| 99 Emilio Rodriguez M | 6.4 | 54' | – | – | 1 | 13 (12%) | 1 |
| 27 Miguel Pedroza F | 6.3 | 6' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| Seamus Maughan | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (14%) | – |
| 9 Julián Carranza F | 6.2 | 36' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | – |
| 2 Emilio Martinez D | 6.1 | 46' | – | – | – | 9 (5%) | – |
| 90 J. Valencia F | 6.0 | 54' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | – |
| 3 Agustín Oliveros D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 44 (35%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (68%)
At a glance
Our lean
Guadalajara Chivas to win or draw
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Guadalajara Chivas
WWWDD
Necaxa
WLDLL
Last 2 meetings
Guadalajara Chivas · 1W 1D 0L
Match summary
Guadalajara Chivas enter the match against Necaxa with a strong home record, having secured 60% of their points at home this season. Their offensive line has been effective, averaging 1.5 goals per match, while their defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per match. Necaxa, on the other hand, struggles on the road, with a win rate of only 30% away from home. They will need to improve their scoring efficiency, as they average just 1 goal per match. Expect Chivas to leverage their attacking prowess against a Necaxa side that must tighten its defense to avoid a potential defeat.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
68%
45%
Draw
19%
45%
Away
13%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Guadalajara Chivas
No scorer data.
Necaxa
J. Carranza
7 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
1
Guadalajara Chivas Wins
1
Draws
0
Necaxa Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | Necaxa | 0 - 0 | Guadalajara Chivas |
| 23 Sep 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 - 1 | Necaxa |
Guadalajara Chivas — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | H Atlante FC | W | 4 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A Monterrey | W | 0 - 1 |
| 21 Oct | H Necaxa | W | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | H Tigres UANL | D | 1 - 1 |
| 11 Oct | A Atlas | D | 1 - 1 |
Necaxa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Club Tijuana | W | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Santos Laguna | L | 1 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | H FC Juarez | D | 1 - 1 |
| 21 Oct | A Guadalajara Chivas | L | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | H Atlas | L | 0 - 2 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Club America
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | +15 | 29 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Cruz Azul
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |
Atlas
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 5 |
Santos Laguna
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |
Toluca
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 |
CF Pachuca
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |
Club Tijuana
|
16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |
Leon
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |
Club Queretaro
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 |
Puebla
|
15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 |
Tigres UANL
|
15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |
Atlante FC
|
16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |
Necaxa
|
16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Guadalajara Chivas
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: G. Milito
1
Rangel
3
Campillo
16
Rey
23
Aguirre
182
Calderon
33
Carrillo
28
González
37
Ledezma
10
Álvarez
25
Alvarado
17
Marín
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Rangel | G |
| 23 | D. Aguirre | D |
| 16 | L. Rey | D |
| 3 | D. Campillo | D |
| 37 | R. Ledezma | M |
| 28 | R. González | M |
| 33 | J. Carrillo | M |
| 182 | L. Calderon | M |
| 25 | R. Alvarado | M |
| 10 | E. Álvarez | M |
| 17 | R. Marín | F |
Substitutes
| 18 | J. Pérez | M |
| 13 | Óscar Whalley | G |
| 14 | H. Camberos | M |
| 19 | K. Castañeda | M |
| 5 | B. González | D |
| 24 | M. Gómez | D |
| 57 | J. Hernández | F |
| 46 | C. Hernandez | D |
| 59 | C. Inda | M |
| 30 | Santiago Sandoval | M |
Necaxa
Formation: 5-4-1
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
181
Orantes
14
Zaleta
3
Oliveros
15
Ochoa
5
Naves
2
Martínez
10
Ruiz
8
Faravelli
6
Leyva
99
Rodríguez
90
Valencia
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Javier Orantes | G |
| 2 | E. Martínez | D |
| 5 | Kaiky Naves | D |
| 15 | D. Ochoa | D |
| 3 | A. Oliveros | D |
| 14 | M. Zaleta | D |
| 99 | M. Rodríguez | M |
| 6 | D. Leyva | M |
| 8 | L. Faravelli | M |
| 10 | J. Ruiz | M |
| 90 | J. Valencia | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | C. Andrade | G |
| 208 | Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos | M |
| 9 | J. Carranza | F |
| 17 | R. Cortéz | M |
| 21 | M. Espíndola | M |
| 33 | R. Martínez | D |
| 210 | Joshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido | M |
| 27 | M. Pedroza | F |
| 13 | Owen de Jesús González Ojeda | M |
| 88 | C. Vargas | D |