Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 12

18 Oct 2026, 01:00

Post on X

Atletico San Luis

Away

AI call Toluca to win or draw

69%

24%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis prediction: Sportiko gives Toluca a 69% chance of winning, Atletico San Luis 7% and the draw 24%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 19.5%

Both teams to score

28%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

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Toluca

LWWWW

Atletico San Luis

WLLWD

Last 2 meetings Toluca · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

Toluca will face Atletico San Luis in this Liga MX clash, with both teams seeking to improve their standings. Toluca has shown a solid home record, capitalizing on their attacking prowess, averaging 1.8 goals per game at home. In contrast, Atletico San Luis has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match away this season. This match could hinge on Toluca’s ability to convert chances against a vulnerable San Luis defense, while the visitors will need to tighten up at the back to secure a favorable result.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

69%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico San Luis goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	4	1
1	20	9	2
2	18	7	1
3	11	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Toluca goals · most likely 1–0 (19.5%)

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Players in form

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

Atletico San Luis

Rafa Llorente 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

72% BTTS No 28% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

91% Home (No Draw) 9% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 7% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

72% BTTS No 28% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

23%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.8%	3.6%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
1	19.5%	9.3%	1.7%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.0%	7.2%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
3	10.5%	4.2%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
4	4.6%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toluca	Draw	Atletico San Luis
Toluca	47.1%	2.4%	0.3%
Draw	22.3%	17.6%	3.6%
Atletico San Luis	1.2%	2.0%	3.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

67%

27%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

84%

0.5

16%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

1 Toluca Wins

1 Draws

0 Atletico San Luis Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Apr 2026	Toluca	1 - 1	Atletico San Luis
29 Aug 2025	Atletico San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Atletico San Luis — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Necaxa	W	3 - 1
15 Sep	A Leon	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	H Guadalajara Chivas	L	0 - 3
31 Aug	A Monterrey	W	1 - 3
23 Aug	H CF Pachuca	D	1 - 1

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.