Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction
Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
AI call
Toluca or draw
32%
28%
40%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction: Sportiko gives Tigres UANL a 32% chance of winning, Toluca 40% and the draw 28%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 05:03.
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Timeline
Juan Brunetta
6'
⚽
1–0
▮
33'
Alexis Vega
Yellow Card
Guillermo Martínez
assist: Emiliano Gómez
37'
⚽
2–0
⚽
2–1
42'
Paulinho
assist: Brian García
▮
43'
Brian García
Yellow Card
⇄
45'
Érick Gutiérrez
⇄ Federico Viñas
▮
45+4'
Red Card
HT 2–1
⚽
2–2
54'
Federico Viñas
assist: Helinho
Juan Brunetta
assist: Fernando Gorriarán
60'
⚽
3–2
Emiliano Gómez
⇄ Diego Sánchez
69'
⇄
Alan Franco
⇄ Vladimir Loroña
69'
⇄
⇄
70'
Alexis Vega
⇄ Jesús Ricardo Angulo
⇄
71'
Brian García
⇄ Santiago Simón
⇄
71'
Helinho
⇄ Jorge Díaz
Guillermo Martínez
⇄ Rodrigo Aguirre
77'
⇄
Diego Lainez
⇄ Ozziel Herrera
77'
⇄
Juan Brunetta
⇄ J. Garza
89'
⇄
Vladimir Loroña
Yellow Card
90'
▮
⇄
90'
Nicolás Castro
⇄ Pavel Pérez
▮
90+3'
Franco Romero
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Federico Pereira
Yellow Card
FT 3–2
Tigres UANL
Match Stats
Toluca
30%
Ball Possession
70%
1.81
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
20
Total Shots
17
13
Shots on Goal
8
5
Shots off Goal
4
2
Blocked Shots
5
12
Shots insidebox
10
8
Shots outsidebox
7
5
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
10
227
Total passes
537
153
Passes accurate
447
19
Free Kicks
13
Tigres UANL
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Juan Brunetta M | 9.0 | 89' | 2 | – | 8 | 16 (13%) | – |
| 22 Guillermo Martínez F | 8.1 | 77' | 1 | – | 5 | 8 (4%) | – |
| 9 Emiliano Gómez M | 7.4 | 69' | – | 1 | 2 | 16 (12%) | 1 |
| 16 Diego Lainez M | 7.1 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 20 (18%) | 2 |
| 1 Nahuel Guzmán G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (11%) | – |
| 8 Fernando Gorriarán M | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 40 (26%) | 4 |
| 77 Ozziel Herrera F | 6.7 | 13' | – | – | – | 5 (2%) | 1 |
| 28 Joaquim D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 10 (3%) | 6 |
| 33 Rafael Guerrero D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 13 (12%) | 1 |
| 17 Rodrigo Aguirre F | 6.5 | 13' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 30 Diego Sánchez F | 6.4 | 21' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 19 Mauro Laínez D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 16 (13%) | 5 |
| 15 Alan Franco D | 6.3 | 69' | – | – | – | 18 (11%) | – |
| 5 César Araújo M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (22%) | 2 |
| 14 J. Garza D | 6.1 | 1' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 32 Vladimir Loroña D | 5.9 | 21' | – | – | – | – | 2 |
Toluca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Luis García G | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (22%) | – |
| 16 Federico Viñas F | 7.8 | 44' | 1 | – | 2 | 16 (10%) | 1 |
| 26 Paulinho F | 7.5 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 17 (12%) | 1 |
| 17 Brian García D | 6.9 | 71' | – | 1 | – | 34 (32%) | 3 |
| 35 Érick Gutiérrez M | 6.6 | 46' | – | – | – | 35 (31%) | 3 |
| 20 Jesús Gallardo D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 36 (33%) | 3 |
| 6 Federico Pereira D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (66%) | 5 |
| 11 Helinho M | 6.4 | 71' | – | 1 | 3 | 40 (31%) | 1 |
| 8 Nicolás Castro M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 51 (43%) | 1 |
| 5 Franco Romero M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 58 (52%) | 2 |
| 10 Jesús Ricardo Angulo M | 6.2 | 20' | – | – | – | 14 (10%) | 1 |
| 9 Alexis Vega M | 6.0 | 70' | – | – | – | 32 (27%) | – |
| 19 Santiago Simón M | 5.8 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 19 (16%) | – |
| 29 Jorge Díaz M | 5.8 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 16 (11%) | – |
| 4 Bruno Méndez D | 5.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (49%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (40%)
At a glance
Our lean
Toluca or draw
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Tigres UANL
LLDLD
Toluca
WDDDD
Last 3 meetings
Tigres UANL · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
Tigres UANL faces Toluca in a key Liga MX clash. Tigres has shown strong form at home, boasting an average possession rate of 61% and a goal conversion rate of 15% this season. Meanwhile, Toluca has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Tigres' attacking prowess, coupled with their solid home record, positions them as favorites in this matchup. Expect a tactical battle, with Tigres likely to dominate possession and create more goal-scoring opportunities.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
32%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
40%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Tigres UANL
J. Brunetta
8 gls
Toluca
F. Viñas
8 gls
A. Vega
5 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
0
Tigres UANL Wins
2
Draws
1
Toluca Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Toluca | 1 - 1 | Tigres UANL |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Tigres UANL | 0 - 0 | Toluca |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Toluca | 2 - 1 | Tigres UANL |
Tigres UANL — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Cruz Azul | L | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | A CF Pachuca | L | 3 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A U.N.A.M. - Pumas | D | 1 - 1 |
| 21 Oct | H Leon | L | 0 - 2 |
| 17 Oct | A Guadalajara Chivas | D | 1 - 1 |
Toluca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Monterrey | W | 4 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Club America | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Leon | D | 1 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | H Club Tijuana | D | 2 - 2 |
| 18 Oct | H Atletico San Luis | D | 1 - 1 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Club America
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | +15 | 29 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Cruz Azul
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |
Atlas
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 5 |
Santos Laguna
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |
Toluca
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 |
CF Pachuca
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |
Club Tijuana
|
16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |
Leon
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |
Club Queretaro
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 |
Puebla
|
15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 |
Tigres UANL
|
15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |
Atlante FC
|
16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |
Necaxa
|
16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Tigres UANL
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Vucetich
1
Guzmán
19
Laínez
33
Guerrero
28
Joaquim
15
Franco
5
Araújo
8
Gorriarán
9
Gómez
11
Brunetta
16
Lainez
22
Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Guzmán | G |
| 15 | A. Franco | D |
| 28 | Joaquim | D |
| 33 | R. Guerrero | D |
| 19 | M. Laínez | D |
| 8 | F. Gorriarán | M |
| 5 | C. Araújo | M |
| 16 | D. Lainez | M |
| 11 | J. Brunetta | M |
| 9 | E. Gómez | M |
| 22 | G. Martínez | F |
Substitutes
| 25 | F. Rodríguez | G |
| 30 | D. Sánchez | F |
| 6 | J. Vigón | M |
| 184 | I. Aceves | D |
| 17 | R. Aguirre | F |
| 14 | J. Garza | D |
| 77 | O. Herrera | F |
| 32 | V. Loroña | D |
| 21 | R. Monreal | F |
| 34 | Simeone | M |
Toluca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Mohamed
22
García
20
Gallardo
6
Pereira
4
Méndez
17
García
35
Gutiérrez
5
Romero
9
Vega
8
Castro
11
Helinho
26
Paulinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | L. García | G |
| 17 | B. García | D |
| 4 | B. Méndez | D |
| 6 | F. Pereira | D |
| 20 | J. Gallardo | D |
| 5 | F. Romero | M |
| 35 | É. Gutiérrez | M |
| 11 | Helinho | M |
| 8 | N. Castro | M |
| 9 | A. Vega | M |
| 26 | Paulinho | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | F. Arce | M |
| 2 | D. Barbosa | D |
| 29 | J. Díaz | M |
| 13 | Luan | D |
| 1 | H. González | G |
| 25 | E. López | D |
| 15 | P. Pérez | M |
| 19 | S. Simón | M |
| 16 | F. Viñas | F |
| 10 | J. Angulo | M |