Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 10

26 Sep 2026, 22:50

Post on X

Toluca

Away

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City

AI call Too close to call

36%

27%

37%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction: Sportiko gives Cruz Azul a 36% chance of winning, Toluca 37% and the draw 27%. Last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:00.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.7%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

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Cruz Azul

LLWWW

Toluca

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Cruz Azul · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX clash, Cruz Azul faces Toluca with both teams vying for vital points. Cruz Azul has shown a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, while maintaining a decent defensive record, conceding 1.2 goals per game. Toluca, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, with only a 30% win rate away from home. Key players to watch include Cruz Azul’s top scorer, who has netted 6 goals in the last 5 matches, and Toluca’s playmaker, who leads the team in assists. The match could hinge on Cruz Azul's ability to capitalize on home momentum against Toluca's inconsistent away form.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	6	6	3	1
1	6	13	9	4	2	1
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	2	1
4	1	2	1	1
5

↑ Cruz Azul goals · most likely 1–1 (12.6%)

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Players in form

Cruz Azul

J. Márquez 3 gls

N. Ibáñez 3 gls

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

AI match tools

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

36%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

36%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 18% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Away Scores More 36% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

35%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	6.0%	5.7%	2.9%	1.1%
1	5.9%	12.7%	8.6%	4.4%	1.7%
2	5.5%	8.4%	6.4%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.7%	4.2%	3.2%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.0%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

19%

27%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Cruz Azul	Draw	Toluca
Cruz Azul	17.6%	3.4%	1.6%
Draw	15.5%	15.8%	11.4%
Toluca	3.7%	6.2%	25.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Cruz Azul vs Toluca

2 Cruz Azul Wins

1 Draws

0 Toluca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
26 Jul 2026	Toluca	1 - 3	Cruz Azul
07 Feb 2026	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
24 Aug 2025	Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca

Cruz Azul — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Monterrey	L	1 - 0
17 Sep	A Inter Miami	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Club America	W	4 - 3
06 Sep	H Santos Laguna	W	1 - 0
29 Aug	A Necaxa	W	1 - 3

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.