Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Prediction
Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
AI call
Monterrey or draw
39%
27%
34%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul prediction: Sportiko gives Monterrey a 39% chance of winning, Cruz Azul 34% and the draw 27%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 03:14.
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Timeline
Cesar Garza
assist: Jesús Corona
7'
⚽
1–0
⇄
45'
Jesús Orozco
⇄ Alan Mozo
HT 1–0
Cesar Garza
Yellow Card
58'
▮
▮
58'
Gabriel Fernández
Yellow Card
▮
60'
Gonzalo Piovi
Yellow Card
Alonso Aceves
⇄ Stefan Medina
61'
⇄
⇄
62'
José Paradela
⇄ Osinachi Ebere
⇄
62'
Agustín Palavecino
⇄ Luka Romero
Jesús Corona
⇄ Fidel Ambríz
76'
⇄
Luca Orellano
⇄ Jorge Rodríguez
76'
⇄
⇄
79'
Jeremy Márquez
⇄ Nicolás Ibáñez
⇄
79'
Gabriel Fernández
⇄ Ariel Castro Sevilla
Cesar Garza
⇄ Iker Fimbres
88'
⇄
Óliver Torres
⇄ Luis Reyes
88'
⇄
FT 1–0
Monterrey
Match Stats
Cruz Azul
47%
Ball Possession
53%
17
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
12
Shots off Goal
4
0
Blocked Shots
4
9
Shots insidebox
7
8
Shots outsidebox
5
6
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
405
Total passes
463
314
Passes accurate
379
13
Free Kicks
13
Monterrey
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Cesar Garza D | 8.2 | 88' | 1 | – | 1 | 22 (20%) | – |
| 1 Esteban Andrada G | 8.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (23%) | 1 |
| 17 Jesús Corona M | 7.7 | 76' | – | 1 | 2 | 26 (19%) | 1 |
| 4 Victor Guzmán D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (39%) | 2 |
| 11 Iker Fimbres M | 7.4 | 2' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 33 Stefan Medina D | 7.2 | 29' | – | – | – | 13 (8%) | – |
| 2 Ricardo Chávez D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (33%) | 4 |
| 19 Alonso Aceves D | 7.1 | 61' | – | – | – | 38 (29%) | 2 |
| 21 Luis Reyes D | 7.0 | 2' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 30 Jorge Rodríguez M | 6.9 | 14' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | 1 |
| 10 Luca Orellano M | 6.9 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 25 (22%) | 2 |
| 5 Fidel Ambríz M | 6.8 | 14' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | 2 |
| 25 Orbelín Pineda M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 48 (36%) | 2 |
| 8 Óliver Torres M | 6.6 | 88' | – | – | 1 | 47 (37%) | 4 |
| 7 Lucas Ocampos M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 6 | 32 (22%) | 1 |
| 99 Hugo Cuypers F | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 21 (14%) | 2 |
Cruz Azul
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Kevin Mier G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (41%) | – |
| 16 Jeremy Márquez D | 6.9 | 79' | – | – | 2 | 38 (37%) | 1 |
| 3 Omar Campos D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 18 (15%) | 1 |
| 11 Osinachi Ebere F | 6.7 | 28' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 4 Willer Ditta D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 59 (53%) | 1 |
| 19 Carlos Rodríguez M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (44%) | 1 |
| 60 Ariel Castro Sevilla M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 20 José Paradela M | 6.4 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 15 (13%) | – |
| 21 Gabriel Fernández F | 6.4 | 79' | – | – | 5 | 16 (12%) | – |
| 7 Nicolás Ibáñez F | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 3 (1%) | – |
| 18 Luka Romero F | 6.2 | 28' | – | – | 1 | 9 (9%) | – |
| 2 Alan Mozo D | 6.2 | 44' | – | – | – | 17 (13%) | – |
| 8 Agustín Palavecino M | 6.1 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 37 (25%) | 4 |
| 6 Erik Lira M | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (43%) | 2 |
| 33 Gonzalo Piovi D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 80 (55%) | 4 |
| 5 Jesús Orozco D | 5.8 | 46' | – | – | – | 17 (11%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (39%)
At a glance
Our lean
Monterrey or draw
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Monterrey
WDLDL
Cruz Azul
LLWWW
Last 3 meetings
Monterrey · 0W 1D 2L
Match summary
Monterrey faces Cruz Azul in a Liga MX matchup that promises to be competitive. Monterrey has displayed a strong offensive record, averaging 2.1 goals per game this season, while Cruz Azul has shown resilience, conceding only 1.2 goals per game. The tactical battle will likely center around Monterrey's attacking prowess against Cruz Azul's disciplined defense. Key players to watch include Monterrey’s leading scorer and Cruz Azul's solid goalkeeper, who will be crucial in determining the outcome. This clash is pivotal for both teams as they vie for favorable positioning in the league standings.
Live insights
76'
time check
80% sure
Min 76: Monterrey leads 1-0. Win probability: 84.1%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 15.9%.
45'
half time
65% sure
Half-time: 1-0. Monterrey leads. Win probability: 71.6%. Over 0.5 more goals: 76.5%.
8'
Goal
70% sure
Goal! Score now 1-0. Monterrey win: 66.8%. BTTS: 73.5%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
39%
10%
Draw
27%
45%
Away
34%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Monterrey
L. Ocampos
5 gls
Cruz Azul
J. Márquez
3 gls
N. Ibáñez
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
0
Monterrey Wins
1
Draws
2
Cruz Azul Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Cruz Azul | 1 - 1 | Monterrey |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Monterrey | 2 - 3 | Cruz Azul |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Monterrey | 0 - 2 | Cruz Azul |
Monterrey — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Cruz Azul | W | 1 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | H Tigres UANL | D | 0 - 0 |
| 07 Sep | A Toluca | L | 2 - 0 |
| 03 Sep | A Club America | D | 2 - 2 |
| 31 Aug | H Atletico San Luis | L | 1 - 3 |
Cruz Azul — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Monterrey | L | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Sep | A Inter Miami | L | 2 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | H Club America | W | 4 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | H Santos Laguna | W | 1 - 0 |
| 29 Aug | A Necaxa | W | 1 - 3 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 |
Club America
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |
Cruz Azul
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 |
Club Queretaro
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 |
Club Tijuana
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |
Leon
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |
Puebla
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 |
Atlas
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 |
CF Pachuca
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 12 |
| 12 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |
Atlante FC
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |
Necaxa
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |
Tigres UANL
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 |
Santos Laguna
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
Monterrey
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Almeyda
1
Andrada
18
Cantu
19
Aceves
4
Guzmán
2
Chávez
25
Pineda
8
Torres
7
Ocampos
17
Corona
10
Orellano
99
Cuypers
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Andrada | G |
| 2 | R. Chávez | D |
| 4 | V. Guzmán | D |
| 19 | A. Aceves | D |
| 18 | Cesar Garza Cantu | D |
| 8 | Óliver Torres | M |
| 25 | O. Pineda | M |
| 10 | L. Orellano | M |
| 17 | J. Corona | M |
| 7 | L. Ocampos | M |
| 99 | H. Cuypers | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa | M |
| 22 | L. Cárdenas | G |
| 5 | F. Ambríz | M |
| 14 | É. Aguirre | M |
| 33 | S. Medina | D |
| 21 | L. Reyes | D |
| 30 | J. Rodríguez | M |
| 203 | A. De Nigris | F |
| 27 | R. de la Rosa | F |
| 32 | U. Đurđević | F |
Cruz Azul
Formation: 5-4-1
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
23
Mier
3
Campos
5
Orozco
33
Piovi
4
Ditta
16
Márquez
19
Rodríguez
8
Palavecino
6
Lira
20
Paradela
21
Fernández
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | K. Mier | G |
| 16 | J. Márquez | D |
| 4 | W. Ditta | D |
| 33 | G. Piovi | D |
| 5 | J. Orozco | D |
| 3 | O. Campos | D |
| 20 | J. Paradela | M |
| 6 | É. Lira | M |
| 8 | A. Palavecino | M |
| 19 | C. Rodríguez | M |
| 21 | G. Fernández | F |
Substitutes
| 12 | A. Montes | D |
| 2 | A. Mozo | D |
| 15 | R. Orquin | D |
| 10 | A. Montaño | M |
| 7 | N. Ibáñez | F |
| 18 | L. Romero | F |
| 1 | A. Gudiño | G |
| 60 | Ariel Castro Sevilla | M |
| 11 | C. Ebere | F |
| 55 | R. Gonzalez | M |