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Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa Prediction

Liga MX Liga MX · Apertura - 9
FT
Post on X
Atletico San Luis

Atletico San Luis

Home
3 : 1
HT 1 - 1
Necaxa

Necaxa

Away
AI call Atletico San Luis or draw
42%
28%
31%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico San Luis a 42% chance of winning, Necaxa 31% and the draw 28%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:55.

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  • Away to Score 73%
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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 10'
Julián Carranza assist: Javier Ruiz
Felipe Mora assist: David Rodriguez
27' ⚽ 1–1
HT 1–1
C. Andrade Own Goal
54' ⚽ 2–1
⇄ 59'
K. Rosero ⇄ Emilio Rodriguez
⇄ 60'
Javier Ruiz ⇄ Matías Espíndola
⇄ 60'
Agustín Oliveros ⇄ Mauro Zaleta
Felipe Mora ⇄ Johan Caicedo
72' ⇄
Sergio ⇄ Leonardo Flores
78' ⇄
David Rodriguez ⇄ Sebastián Pérez Bouquet
78' ⇄
⇄ 78'
J. Valencia ⇄ Juan Torres
▮ 80'
Pedro Pedraza Yellow Card
Eduardo Águila
81' ⚽ 3–1
⇄ 87'
Alexis Peña ⇄ Danny Leyva
Anderson Duarte ⇄ Roberto Meraz
90' ⇄
Sébastien Salles-Lamonge ⇄ Juanpe
90' ⇄
Aldo Cruz Yellow Card
90+5' ▮
FT 3–1
Atletico San Luis

Match Stats

Necaxa
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 4
9 Shots insidebox 8
3 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Corner Kicks 5
1 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
561 Total passes 386
498 Passes accurate 330
11 Free Kicks 13
Atletico San Luis
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
99 Felipe Mora F 7.6 72' 1 – 1 11 (5%) –
31 Eduardo Águila D 7.3 90' 1 – 1 91 (82%) 1
10 Sébastien Salles-Lamonge M 7.2 90' – – 3 63 (58%) –
21 Oscar Macías M 7.1 90' – – – 55 (52%) 6
18 Aldo Cruz D 7.0 90' – – – 83 (73%) 2
30 Benjamín Galindo D 7.0 90' – – – 92 (87%) 2
2 Román Torres M 6.8 90' – – – 40 (34%) 2
25 Gibran Lajud G 6.8 90' – – – 22 (21%) –
11 David Rodriguez M 6.6 78' – 1 3 28 (22%) 2
17 Anderson Duarte M 6.6 90' – – 2 18 (14%) 4
13 Johan Caicedo M 6.6 18' – – 1 12 (11%) –
20 Leonardo Flores F 6.4 12' – – 1 5 (5%) –
22 Sergio M 6.3 78' – – – 27 (21%) 2
26 Sebastián Pérez Bouquet M 6.3 12' – – – 6 (6%) –
Necaxa
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
10 Javier Ruiz M 7.0 60' – 1 – 9 (8%) –
9 Julián Carranza M 6.9 90' 1 – 1 23 (17%) –
8 Lorenzo Faravelli M 6.5 90' – – – 49 (44%) 1
33 R. Martínez D 6.5 90' – – 1 45 (40%) 1
90 J. Valencia F 6.4 78' – – – 18 (13%) –
4 Alexis Peña D 6.3 87' – – 3 41 (34%) –
21 Matías Espíndola M 6.2 30' – – – 30 (27%) –
16 Pedro Pedraza M 6.2 90' – – – 38 (34%) 2
14 Mauro Zaleta M 6.1 30' – – 2 15 (13%) –
5 Kaiky Naves D 6.0 90' – – – 45 (36%) 4
99 Emilio Rodriguez M 6.0 31' – – 1 17 (16%) –
3 Agustín Oliveros D 5.9 60' – – – 14 (13%) –
1 C. Andrade G 5.9 90' – – – 18 (15%) –
6 Danny Leyva M 5.8 3' – – – 5 (4%) –
11 Juan Torres M 5.7 12' – – 1 5 (4%) –
7 K. Rosero M 5.6 59' – – 1 11 (9%) 3
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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean
Atletico San Luis or draw
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Atletico San Luis
WLLWD
Necaxa
LLDLD
Last 2 meetings Atletico San Luis · 0W 0D 2L

Match summary

Atletico San Luis enters this Liga MX matchup against Necaxa with a solid home record, having secured points in crucial fixtures. San Luis has demonstrated a strong defensive structure, conceding only 10 goals in their last 8 matches. Necaxa, on the other hand, struggles with consistency, winning just 2 of their last 6 outings. This clash will likely hinge on San Luis's ability to exploit Necaxa's defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in transition. Expect a tactical battle with San Luis aiming to control possession while Necaxa looks for counter-attacking opportunities.

Live insights

83' Goal 85% sure

Atletico San Luis now leads 3-1 with 99.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 20.2%.

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Atletico San Luis leads 3-1. Win probability: 99.6%. Comeback chance: 0.4%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Atletico San Luis leads 2-1. Win probability: 84.8%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 15.2%.

54' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Atletico San Luis win: 76%. BTTS: 100%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 33.6%, Away win 2H: 25.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
42%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
31%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Atletico San Luis
Rafa Llorente 3 gls
Necaxa
J. Carranza 5 gls

AI match tools

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Head to Head: Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa

0 Atletico San Luis Wins
0 Draws
2 Necaxa Wins
Date Home Score Away
07 Feb 2026 Necaxa 4 - 1 Atletico San Luis
27 Oct 2025 Atletico San Luis 3 - 4 Necaxa

Atletico San Luis — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep H Necaxa W 3 - 1
15 Sep A Leon L 2 - 0
05 Sep H Guadalajara Chivas L 0 - 3
31 Aug A Monterrey W 1 - 3
23 Aug H CF Pachuca D 1 - 1

Necaxa — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Atletico San Luis L 3 - 1
12 Sep H Puebla L 0 - 1
06 Sep A Tigres UANL D 1 - 1
29 Aug H Cruz Azul L 1 - 3
24 Aug A U.N.A.M. - Pumas D 1 - 1

Liga MX Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Toluca
9 6 1 2 +11 19
2
Guadalajara Chivas
9 5 3 1 +9 18
3
Club America
8 5 2 1 +9 17
4
Cruz Azul
9 5 0 4 +1 15
5
Club Queretaro
8 4 2 2 +3 14
6
Club Tijuana
8 4 2 2 +2 14
7
Leon
9 4 2 3 +2 14
8
Puebla
9 4 2 3 0 14
9
Atlas
9 4 2 3 -2 14
10
Monterrey
8 4 1 3 +4 13
11
CF Pachuca
9 3 3 3 +5 12
12
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
9 3 3 3 -1 12
13
Atletico San Luis
9 2 3 4 -5 9
14
Atlante FC
9 1 5 3 -5 8
15
Necaxa
9 2 2 5 -6 8
16
Tigres UANL
9 1 4 4 -4 7
17
Santos Laguna
9 2 1 6 -6 7
18
FC Juarez
9 1 0 8 -17 3

Necaxa

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: M. Varini
1 Andrade
3 Oliveros
5 Naves
4 Peña
33 Martínez
16 Pedraza
10 Ruiz
8 Faravelli
9 Carranza
7 Rosero
90 Valencia

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 C. Andrade G
33 R. Martínez D
4 A. Peña D
5 Kaiky Naves D
3 A. Oliveros D
16 P. Pedraza M
7 K. Rosero M
9 J. Carranza M
8 L. Faravelli M
10 J. Ruiz M
90 J. Valencia F

Substitutes

88 C. Vargas D
21 M. Espíndola M
6 D. Leyva M
2 E. Martínez D
15 D. Ochoa D
181 J. Orantes G
99 M. Rodríguez M
11 J. Torres M
14 M. Zaleta M
13 Owen de Jesús González Ojeda M

Atletico San Luis

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: David Pagou
25 Lajud
18 Cruz
31 Águila
30 Galindo
17 Duarte
21 Macías
10 Salles-Lamonge
2 Torres
22 Llorente
11 Rodríguez
99 Mora

Starting XI

# Player Pos
25 G. Lajud G
30 B. Galindo D
31 E. Águila D
18 A. Cruz D
2 R. Torres M
10 S. Salles-Lamonge M
21 Ó. Macías M
17 A. Duarte M
11 D. Rodríguez M
22 Rafa Llorente M
99 F. Mora F

Substitutes

7 B. Galdames M
20 L. Flores F
13 J. Caicedo M
14 M. García M
23 C. López G
5 R. Meraz M
19 S. Muñóz F
8 L. Nájera M
26 S. Pérez Bouquet M
6 Juanpe D

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