Puebla vs Santos Laguna Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 5

Post on X

Santos Laguna

Away

Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla

AI call Difficult Puebla win or draw

50%

27%

23%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Puebla vs Santos Laguna prediction: Sportiko gives Puebla a 50% chance of winning, Santos Laguna 23% and the draw 27%. Last updated 23 Aug 2026, 02:56.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

Facundo Almada Own Goal

Eduardo Mustre assist: Carlos Baltazar

9' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Diego González ⇄ Ramiro Sordo

⚽ 1–2 51'

Ezequiel Bullaude assist: Fran Villalba

Eduardo Mustre assist: Juan Pablo Vargas

54' ⚽ 2–2

Carlos Baltazar assist: Brayan Garnica

62' ⚽ 3–2

⇄ 67'

Eduardo Aguirre ⇄ Kevin Palacios

⇄ 67'

Emmanuel Echeverría ⇄ Kevin Picon

Carlos Baltazar ⇄ Óscar Villa

74' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Aldo Lopez Vargas ⇄ Joshua Mancha

Brayan Garnica ⇄ Lucas Camilo

80' ⇄

Alejandro Organista ⇄ Sergio Sanabria

89' ⇄

Fernando Monarrez ⇄ Jose Pachuca

89' ⇄

Eduardo Mustre ⇄ Luifer Hernández

89' ⇄

▮ 90+1'

Kevin Picon Yellow Card

FT 3–2

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Confidence Medium (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Puebla win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 15.6%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Puebla

DLWLW

Santos Laguna

WWLDL

Last 2 meetings Puebla · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX clash, Puebla will face Santos Laguna. Puebla has shown a solid home record, averaging 1.5 goals per game this season, while Santos Laguna has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match on the road. Both teams will aim to capitalize on their attacking strengths; Puebla boasts a higher possession percentage, which could allow them to control the tempo. Given the defensive vulnerabilities of Santos, Puebla may exploit this to secure three points. Expect a competitive match with potential for goals on both sides.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

50%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

23%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Santos Laguna goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	6	2	1
1	16	13	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	7	5	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Puebla goals · most likely 1–0 (15.6%)

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Players in form

Puebla

E. Mustre 3 gls

Santos Laguna

E. Bullaude 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

23%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

80% Home (No Draw) 20% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 14% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	5.8%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%
1	15.6%	12.8%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%
2	13.3%	8.7%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%
3	6.8%	4.5%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	2.7%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Puebla	Draw	Santos Laguna
Puebla	36.6%	3.0%	0.5%
Draw	20.0%	19.7%	5.5%
Santos Laguna	2.0%	3.8%	9.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

52%

34%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Puebla vs Santos Laguna

1 Puebla Wins

0 Draws

1 Santos Laguna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Santos Laguna	2 - 1	Puebla
25 Jul 2025	Puebla	1 - 0	Santos Laguna

Puebla — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Atlante FC	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Toluca	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Necaxa	W	0 - 1
30 Aug	A Club America	L	2 - 0
23 Aug	H Santos Laguna	W	3 - 2

Santos Laguna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	A Toluca	W	2 - 3
14 Sep	H FC Juarez	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Cruz Azul	L	1 - 0
30 Aug	H Tigres UANL	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Puebla	L	3 - 2

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.