Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 5

Post on X

Toluca

Away

AI call Toluca or draw

28%

45%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Club Queretaro vs Toluca prediction: Sportiko gives Club Queretaro a 28% chance of winning, Toluca 45% and the draw 28%. Last updated 22 Aug 2026, 06:00.

Premium picks

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw 71%

Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Timeline

▮ 19'

Alexis Vega Yellow Card

▮ 31'

Diego Barbosa Red Card

▮ 45+5'

Fernando Arce Juárez Yellow Card

Ali Ávila Missed Penalty

45+6' ✗

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Alexis Vega ⇄ Nicolás Castro

FT 1–2

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on Club Queretaro vs Toluca

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Pick types you choose

Go Premium

Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Toluca or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Club Queretaro

DWWLD

Toluca

LWWWW

Last 2 meetings Club Queretaro · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

Club Queretaro faces Toluca in a Liga MX matchup, with both teams looking to secure valuable points. Queretaro has struggled this season, sitting lower in the standings with a goal difference of -5, while Toluca has shown more offensive prowess, scoring 12 goals in their last five matches. Historically, Toluca has had the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, winning 60% of the last ten meetings. Key players to watch include Queretaro's leading scorer, who has netted 5 goals this season, and Toluca's creative midfielder, who has recorded 4 assists. This match could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to improve their league positions.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

28%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	10	7	3	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Club Queretaro goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

Club Queretaro

S. Homenchenko 4 gls

A. Ávila 3 gls

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Match Result

Away Win

45%

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-4 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.9%	10.3%	7.1%	2.8%	0.8%
1	9.5%	15.0%	7.8%	3.1%	0.9%
2	6.3%	7.4%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.3%	2.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Club Queretaro	Draw	Toluca
Club Queretaro	17.6%	3.8%	1.4%
Draw	13.9%	21.0%	13.0%
Toluca	1.9%	4.9%	22.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

Premium

Home +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Club Queretaro vs Toluca

1 Club Queretaro Wins

0 Draws

1 Toluca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	Club Queretaro	1 - 0	Toluca
18 Oct 2025	Toluca	4 - 0	Club Queretaro

Club Queretaro — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Leon	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Club Tijuana	W	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Atlas	W	1 - 3
22 Aug	H Toluca	L	1 - 2
16 Aug	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	D	0 - 0

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.