Necaxa vs Leon Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 4

18 Aug 2026, 01:00

Post on X

Leon

Away

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes

AI call Necaxa to win

67%

24%

Home Win · 2.24 Draw · 3.55 Away Win · 3.15

Necaxa vs Leon prediction: Sportiko gives Necaxa a 67% chance of winning, Leon 9% and the draw 24%. Last updated 4 Aug 2026, 06:06.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 16%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Necaxa

LLWWL

Leon

WWLLL

Last 2 meetings Necaxa · 0W 0D 2L

Match summary

In this Liga MX matchup, Necaxa will face León. Necaxa has shown mixed form recently, with a record that reflects struggles in both attack and defense. León, on the other hand, has been more consistent, boasting a solid goal-scoring record and a stronger defensive unit. Key players for León will need to exploit Necaxa's vulnerabilities to secure points. This clash will likely hinge on León's ability to maintain their form against a Necaxa side looking to capitalize on their home ground.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leon goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	4	1
1	16	11	3
2	16	9	2
3	10	5	1
4	4	2	1
5	2	1

↑ Necaxa goals · most likely 1–0 (16.0%)

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Players in form

Necaxa

J. Carranza 3 gls

Leon

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

88% Home (No Draw) 12% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

67% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 9% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.6%	3.9%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%
1	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
2	15.9%	8.6%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%
3	9.7%	5.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%
4	4.5%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Necaxa	Draw	Leon
Necaxa	44.2%	2.7%	0.5%
Draw	22.6%	16.4%	4.2%
Leon	1.9%	2.7%	4.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

58%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Necaxa vs Leon

0 Necaxa Wins

0 Draws

2 Leon Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Mar 2026	Leon	2 - 1	Necaxa
16 Aug 2025	Necaxa	0 - 1	Leon

Necaxa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Chicago Fire	L	2 - 0
03 Aug	A Toluca	L	3 - 1
26 Jul	H Monterrey	W	2 - 1
17 Jul	H Atlante FC	W	2 - 1
27 Apr	A Cruz Azul	L	3 - 1

Leon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A Nashville SC	W	0 - 1
02 Aug	H CF Pachuca	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	A Club Tijuana	L	1 - 0
18 Jul	H Atlas	L	2 - 3
26 Apr	A Toluca	L	4 - 1

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Club America	3	2	1	0	5	1	+4	7
2	Club Tijuana	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
3	Toluca	3	2	0	1	6	3	+3	6
4	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	3	2	0	1	7	5	+2	6
5	Monterrey	3	2	0	1	6	4	+2	6
6	Cruz Azul	3	2	0	1	7	6	+1	6
7	Club Queretaro	3	2	0	1	5	4	+1	6
8	Necaxa	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
9	Atlas	3	2	0	1	4	4	0	6
10	Atlante FC	3	1	1	1	5	5	0	4
11	Puebla	3	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
12	Guadalajara Chivas	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
13	CF Pachuca	3	1	0	2	4	3	+1	3
14	Leon	3	1	0	2	3	4	-1	3
15	Atletico San Luis	3	0	2	1	4	5	-1	2
16	Tigres UANL	3	0	1	2	5	8	-3	1
17	Santos Laguna	3	0	0	3	2	7	-5	0
18	FC Juarez	3	0	0	3	1	7	-6	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.