Atlante FC vs Toluca Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 4

Post on X

Toluca

Away

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City

AI call Difficult Toluca win or draw

18%

26%

56%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atlante FC vs Toluca prediction: Sportiko gives Atlante FC a 18% chance of winning, Toluca 56% and the draw 26%. Last updated 16 Aug 2026, 01:00.

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Timeline

Aarón Quirós Yellow Card

13' ▮

Edgar Jiménez ⇄ Walter Clar

29' ⇄

HT 0–0

⇄ Martín Sarrafiore

53' ⇄

⇄ 60'

Jesús Ricardo Angulo ⇄ Helinho

⇄ 60'

Diego Barbosa ⇄ Pavel Pérez

⇄ 74'

Érick Gutiérrez ⇄ Fernando Arce Juárez

⇄ 75'

Luis García ⇄ Hugo Gonzalez

Luis Puente ⇄ Joaquin Moxica

80' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Jorge Díaz ⇄ Víctor Guzmán

Nicolas Carrera Yellow Card

90+9' ▮

FT 0–0

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Toluca win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Atlante FC

DLDDL

Toluca

LWWWW

Match summary

Atlante FC faces Toluca in a Liga MX clash, with both teams looking to secure vital points. Atlante has shown a solid home record, boasting a 60% win rate at home last season, while Toluca has struggled on the road, winning only 30% of away matches. Key players to watch include Atlante's top scorer, who netted 15 goals last season, and Toluca's midfield playmaker, known for his creativity and assists. The match promises to be competitive, with tactical battles likely in midfield determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

18%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

56%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	10	8	4	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	2	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Atlante FC goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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Players in form

Atlante FC

No scorer data.

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

26%

Home Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

26%

Home Win

18%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

62% Away (No Draw) 38% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 27% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	10.3%	8.5%	4.0%	1.4%
1	7.3%	14.3%	9.0%	4.3%	1.5%
2	4.7%	6.7%	4.8%	2.3%	0.8%
3	1.7%	2.4%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atlante FC	Draw	Toluca
Atlante FC	13.4%	3.9%	2.1%
Draw	12.2%	19.5%	17.4%
Toluca	1.8%	4.5%	25.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

24%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atlante FC vs Toluca

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Atlante FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Puebla	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H CF Pachuca	L	0 - 3
06 Sep	A Atlas	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	H Leon	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Tigres UANL	L	2 - 0

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.