Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

A-League · Regular Season - 16

06 Feb 2027, 08:40

Post on X

Melbourne Victory

Away

Coopers Stadium, Adelaide

AI call Adelaide United to win or draw

66%

24%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction: Sportiko gives Adelaide United a 66% chance of winning, Melbourne Victory 10% and the draw 24%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

40%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Adelaide United

LWLDD

Melbourne Victory

DWDWW

Last 3 meetings Adelaide United · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Adelaide United faces Melbourne Victory in a crucial A-League clash. Adelaide has shown strong form this season, boasting a solid home record with a high goal-scoring rate, averaging 1.8 goals per match. Conversely, Melbourne Victory has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Both teams will be keen to capitalize on their offensive strengths, making this a potentially high-scoring encounter. Key players to watch include Adelaide's leading scorer and Melbourne's creative midfielder, whose performances could tip the balance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

66%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

10%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Melbourne Victory goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	4	2
1	15	11	3	1
2	15	9	3	1
3	9	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	2	1

↑ Adelaide United goals · most likely 2–0 (14.8%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

91%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

40% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

91%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

27%

22%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	3.9%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
1	14.6%	10.9%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.8%	9.0%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%
3	9.2%	5.6%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	4.3%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Adelaide United	Draw	Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United	43.3%	2.9%	0.6%
Draw	22.1%	16.0%	4.7%
Melbourne Victory	2.0%	2.9%	5.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

54%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

1 Adelaide United Wins

1 Draws

1 Melbourne Victory Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Feb 2026	Melbourne Victory	1 - 1	Adelaide United
17 Jan 2026	Adelaide United	2 - 1	Melbourne Victory
13 Dec 2025	Melbourne Victory	2 - 1	Adelaide United

Adelaide United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 May	A Auckland	L	1 - 0
26 Apr	A Melbourne City	W	1 - 2
19 Apr	H Macarthur	L	0 - 1
11 Apr	A Newcastle Jets	D	1 - 1
03 Apr	H Auckland	D	1 - 1

Melbourne Victory — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	A Viettel	D	1 - 1
09 Sep	A Sydney	W	0 - 2
08 Aug	A Western Sydney Wanderers	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Kingborough Lions	W	0 - 4
25 Apr	A Western Sydney Wanderers	W	0 - 2

A-League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.