Melbourne Victory vs Sydney Prediction

A-League · Regular Season - 14

26 Jan 2027, 06:00

Post on X

Sydney

Away

AAMI Park, Melbourne

AI call Sydney or draw

30%

29%

41%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney prediction: Sportiko gives Melbourne Victory a 30% chance of winning, Sydney 41% and the draw 29%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Melbourne Victory

DWDWW

Sydney

LWWDD

Last 3 meetings Melbourne Victory · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this A-League matchup, Melbourne Victory faces Sydney FC at home. Both teams have shown inconsistent form recently, with Melbourne Victory averaging 1.2 goals per game and Sydney FC slightly better at 1.5 goals per game this season. Defensively, Sydney has conceded fewer goals per match, averaging 1.1, compared to Melbourne's 1.6. This suggests a potential edge for Sydney FC if they can maintain their defensive solidity. The outcome may hinge on Melbourne's ability to convert chances and exploit any defensive lapses from Sydney.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

30%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

41%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sydney goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	8	7	4	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Melbourne Victory goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

57% Away (No Draw) 43% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Away Scores More 30% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	8.3%	7.2%	3.5%	1.3%
1	6.7%	13.8%	9.0%	4.4%	1.6%
2	5.2%	7.6%	5.6%	2.7%	1.0%
3	2.1%	3.1%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Melbourne Victory	Draw	Sydney
Melbourne Victory	17.8%	4.6%	2.3%
Draw	11.6%	17.7%	15.0%
Sydney	1.8%	4.5%	24.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Melbourne Victory vs Sydney

2 Melbourne Victory Wins

1 Draws

0 Sydney Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Sep 2026	Sydney	0 - 2	Melbourne Victory
07 Mar 2026	Sydney	2 - 2	Melbourne Victory
26 Jan 2026	Melbourne Victory	4 - 0	Sydney

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Melbourne Victory — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	A Viettel	D	1 - 1
09 Sep	A Sydney	W	0 - 2
08 Aug	A Western Sydney Wanderers	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Kingborough Lions	W	0 - 4
25 Apr	A Western Sydney Wanderers	W	0 - 2

Sydney — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 Sep	H Melbourne Victory	L	0 - 2
09 Aug	A Brisbane Roar	W	2 - 4
21 Jul	A Bayswater City	W	1 - 5
26 Apr	H Auckland	D	2 - 2
18 Apr	H Perth Glory	D	0 - 0

A-League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.