Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction

A-League · Regular Season - 10

29 Dec 2026, 08:00

Post on X

Wellington Phoenix

Away

AAMI Park, Melbourne

AI call Difficult Melbourne Victory win or draw

55%

28%

18%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction: Sportiko gives Melbourne Victory a 55% chance of winning, Wellington Phoenix 18% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Melbourne Victory

DWDWW

Wellington Phoenix

LWLDW

Last 3 meetings Melbourne Victory · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming A-League match, Melbourne Victory will face Wellington Phoenix. Melbourne Victory has shown a solid home record, while Wellington Phoenix has been less consistent on the road. Key players for Victory include their top scorer, who has significantly contributed to their attacking prowess. Conversely, Wellington's defense will need to improve to withstand Melbourne's offensive pressure. This match promises to be competitive, with both teams aiming for crucial points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Wellington Phoenix goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	12	13	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Melbourne Victory goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	5.5%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
1	12.3%	13.1%	4.9%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.4%	9.6%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.3%	5.3%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.6%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory	34.4%	3.7%	1.0%
Draw	19.5%	17.9%	7.4%
Wellington Phoenix	2.3%	3.8%	9.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix

2 Melbourne Victory Wins

1 Draws

0 Wellington Phoenix Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Apr 2026	Melbourne Victory	0 - 0	Wellington Phoenix
06 Feb 2026	Wellington Phoenix	2 - 3	Melbourne Victory
29 Dec 2025	Melbourne Victory	5 - 1	Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	A Viettel	D	1 - 1
09 Sep	A Sydney	W	0 - 2
08 Aug	A Western Sydney Wanderers	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Kingborough Lions	W	0 - 4
25 Apr	A Western Sydney Wanderers	W	0 - 2

Wellington Phoenix — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Apr	A Macarthur	L	4 - 0
18 Apr	H Western Sydney Wanderers	W	2 - 1
12 Apr	A Melbourne City	L	1 - 0
05 Apr	A Melbourne Victory	D	0 - 0
21 Mar	A Brisbane Roar	W	1 - 2

A-League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.