Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction
AI call
Difficult Wellington Phoenix win or draw
53%
26%
22%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners prediction: Sportiko gives Wellington Phoenix a 53% chance of winning, Central Coast Mariners 22% and the draw 26%. Last updated 25 Oct 2026, 03:53.
Timeline
HT 0–0
⇄
46'
Alexander Bolton
⇄ Arthur De Lima
Rafael Duran
assist: Matthew Sheridan
55'
⚽
1–0
Corban Piper
assist: Kazuki Nagasawa
57'
⚽
2–0
▮
59'
Ali Auglah
Yellow Card
⇄
61'
Haine Eames
⇄ Jesse Mantell
⇄
62'
Ty Mckibbin
⇄ Luke Becvinovski
⇄
62'
Bailey Brandtman
⇄ Shumba Mutokoyi
Rafael Duran
70'
⇄
⇄
72'
Ali Auglah
⇄ Max Naylor
B. Duke
⇄ Nathan Walker
84'
⇄
Corban Piper
⇄ Luke Mitchell
84'
⇄
▮
90+2'
Shumba Mutokoyi
Yellow Card
FT 2–0
Wellington Phoenix
Match Stats
Central Coast Mariners
44%
Ball Possession
56%
Expected Goals (xG)
13
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Goal
2
4
Shots off Goal
1
4
Blocked Shots
2
10
Shots insidebox
4
3
Shots outsidebox
1
1
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
5
9
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
Red Cards
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
348
Total passes
450
261
Passes accurate
350
75%
Passes %
78%
goals_prevented
Wellington Phoenix
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Max Anderson M | 7.9 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 39 (35%) | 3 |
| 28 Bill Tuiloma D | 7.7 | 89' | – | – | – | 40 (31%) | – |
| 14 Alex Rufer M | 7.3 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 38 (29%) | 1 |
| 23 James McGarry D | 7.2 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 37 (26%) | 1 |
| 25 Kazuki Nagasawa M | 7.2 | 89' | – | 1 | 1 | 22 (19%) | 1 |
| 27 Matthew Sheridan D | 7.2 | 89' | – | 1 | – | 27 (16%) | – |
| 9 Rafael Duran F | 6.9 | 70' | 1 | – | 2 | 17 (10%) | – |
| 7 B. Duke M | 6.9 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 38 (33%) | 2 |
| 18 Lukas Kelly-Heald D | 6.7 | 89' | – | – | – | 43 (38%) | – |
| 99 Corban Piper F | 6.6 | 84' | 1 | – | 1 | 17 (8%) | – |
| 13 Henry Gray G | 6.6 | 89' | – | – | – | 24 (11%) | – |
| 11 Riley Bidois F | 6.3 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 2 (1%) | – |
| 17 Nathan Walker F | — | 5' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 35 Luke Mitchell M | — | 5' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
Central Coast Mariners
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 Alexander Bolton M | 7.3 | 45' | – | – | – | 16 (13%) | 5 |
| 12 Noah Mccann D | 7.2 | 89' | – | – | – | 63 (53%) | 1 |
| 6 Haine Eames M | 7.0 | 61' | – | – | – | 38 (30%) | – |
| 3 Diesel Herrington D | 6.9 | 89' | – | – | – | 74 (64%) | 1 |
| 42 Max Naylor F | 6.7 | 17' | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| 30 Andrew Redmayne G | 6.5 | 89' | – | – | – | 31 (23%) | – |
| 22 Arthur De Lima M | 6.5 | 44' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 2 |
| 5 Lucas Mauragis D | 6.3 | 89' | – | – | – | 31 (25%) | – |
| 72 Ali Auglah M | 6.3 | 72' | – | – | – | 21 (13%) | – |
| 37 Bailey Brandtman M | 6.3 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 20 (11%) | 1 |
| 9 Oliver Lavale F | 6.3 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 24 (21%) | – |
| 41 Shumba Mutokoyi D | 6.3 | 27' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | 1 |
| 43 Luke Becvinovski F | 6.3 | 27' | – | – | – | 5 (1%) | 1 |
| 51 Ty Mckibbin D | 6.3 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 31 (26%) | 2 |
| 8 Chris Donnell M | 6.2 | 89' | – | – | – | 59 (44%) | – |
| 45 Jesse Mantell M | 6.2 | 28' | – | – | – | 17 (13%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (53%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Wellington Phoenix win or draw
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Wellington Phoenix
DWWWL
Central Coast Mariners
LDLDD
Last 2 meetings
Wellington Phoenix · 1W 1D 0L
Match summary
In the upcoming A-League clash, Wellington Phoenix will face Central Coast Mariners. Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Wellington scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game in their last five outings, while Central Coast Mariners have maintained a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game on average during the same period. The matchup will likely hinge on Wellington's ability to exploit their attacking prowess against the Mariners' organized defense. Key players to watch include Wellington's top scorer, who has been instrumental in their recent successes, and Central Coast's goalkeeper, who has been crucial in maintaining clean sheets. This contest promises to be tightly contested as both teams vie for vital points.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
53%
45%
Draw
26%
45%
Away
22%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Wellington Phoenix
C. Piper
3 gls
R. Bidois
2 gls
N. Walker
1 gls
R. Durán
1 gls
Central Coast Mariners
O. Lavale
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
1
Wellington Phoenix Wins
1
Draws
0
Central Coast Mariners Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Dec 2025 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 - 1 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 02 Nov 2025 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 - 1 | Wellington Phoenix |
Wellington Phoenix — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Auckland | D | 0 - 0 |
| 31 Oct | A Newcastle Jets | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | H Central Coast Mariners | W | 2 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | H Melbourne Victory | W | 2 - 1 |
| 24 Apr | A Macarthur | L | 4 - 0 |
Central Coast Mariners — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Sydney | L | 4 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | A Melbourne Victory | D | 1 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A Wellington Phoenix | L | 2 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | H Newcastle Jets | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Jul | A Sydney United | D | 1 - 1 |
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Wellington Phoenix
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |
Melbourne City
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 |
Perth Glory
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |
Western Sydney Wanderers
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 6 |
Macarthur
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 |
Auckland
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 8 |
Brisbane Roar
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |
Melbourne Victory
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 |
Newcastle Jets
|
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 |
Central Coast Mariners
|
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 |
Adelaide United
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Central Coast Mariners
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
30
Redmayne
5
Mauragis
12
Mccann
3
Herrington
51
Mckibbin
8
Donnell
39
Bolton
6
Eames
37
Brandtman
72
Auglah
9
Lavale
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Andrew Redmayne | G |
| 51 | Ty Mckibbin | D |
| 3 | Diesel Herrington | D |
| 12 | Noah Mccann | D |
| 5 | Lucas Mauragis | D |
| 8 | Chris Donnell | M |
| 72 | Ali Auglah | M |
| 37 | Bailey Brandtman | M |
| 6 | Haine Eames | M |
| 39 | Alexander Bolton | M |
| 9 | Oliver Lavale | F |
Substitutes
| 22 | Arthur De Lima | M |
| 45 | Jesse Mantell | M |
| 41 | Shumba Mutokoyi | D |
| 43 | Luke Becvinovski | F |
| 42 | Max Naylor | F |
| 50 | Jai Ajanovic | G |
| 46 | Callum McCaskey | D |
Wellington Phoenix
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
13
Gray
23
McGarry
18
Kelly-Heald
28
Tuiloma
27
Sheridan
25
Nagasawa
14
Rufer
8
Anderson
7
Duke
9
Duran
99
Piper
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Henry Gray | G |
| 27 | Matthew Sheridan | D |
| 28 | Bill Tuiloma | D |
| 18 | Lukas Kelly-Heald | D |
| 23 | James McGarry | D |
| 7 | Bryce Duke | M |
| 8 | Max Anderson | M |
| 14 | Alex Rufer | M |
| 25 | Kazuki Nagasawa | M |
| 99 | Corban Piper | F |
| 9 | Rafael Duran | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | Riley Bidois | F |
| 30 | Alby Kelly-Heald | G |
| 24 | Tze-xuan Loke | F |
| 34 | Dylan Gardiner | D |
| 5 | Walter Scott | D |
| 17 | Nathan Walker | F |
| 35 | Luke Mitchell | M |