Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

A-League · Regular Season - 1

18 Oct 2026, 02:00

Post on X

Melbourne Victory

Away

AI call Melbourne Victory or draw

26%

30%

45%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction: Sportiko gives Wellington Phoenix a 26% chance of winning, Melbourne Victory 45% and the draw 30%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Wellington Phoenix

LWLDW

Melbourne Victory

DWDWW

Last 3 meetings Wellington Phoenix · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, both teams will look to capitalize on their recent form. Wellington Phoenix has shown resilience in their last few matches, demonstrating a strong attacking output, averaging 1.8 goals per game this season. Meanwhile, Melbourne Victory has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per game, which could be crucial in this match. The battle in midfield will be pivotal; controlling possession may determine the outcome. Overall, this match promises to be competitive, with both teams eager to secure valuable points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Melbourne Victory goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	10	9	4	2
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	4	7	5	2	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Wellington Phoenix goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

30%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

30%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

64% Away (No Draw) 36% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	10.2%	8.7%	4.2%	1.6%
1	6.9%	14.1%	9.2%	4.5%	1.7%
2	4.5%	6.6%	4.9%	2.4%	0.9%
3	1.6%	2.3%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix	14.8%	4.4%	2.2%
Draw	10.3%	18.7%	16.6%
Melbourne Victory	1.5%	4.3%	27.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

0 Wellington Phoenix Wins

1 Draws

2 Melbourne Victory Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Apr 2026	Melbourne Victory	0 - 0	Wellington Phoenix
06 Feb 2026	Wellington Phoenix	2 - 3	Melbourne Victory
29 Dec 2025	Melbourne Victory	5 - 1	Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Apr	A Macarthur	L	4 - 0
18 Apr	H Western Sydney Wanderers	W	2 - 1
12 Apr	A Melbourne City	L	1 - 0
05 Apr	A Melbourne Victory	D	0 - 0
21 Mar	A Brisbane Roar	W	1 - 2

Melbourne Victory — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	A Viettel	D	1 - 1
09 Sep	A Sydney	W	0 - 2
08 Aug	A Western Sydney Wanderers	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Kingborough Lions	W	0 - 4
25 Apr	A Western Sydney Wanderers	W	0 - 2

A-League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.