Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction
FT
Merkur Arena, Graz
AI call
Red Bull Salzburg or draw
34%
25%
41%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg 41% and the draw 25%. Last updated 9 Nov 2026, 21:00.
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- Under 4.5 75%
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
5'
Haris Tabaković
assist: Bartosz Mazurek
Oumar Diakité
assist: Jurgen Heil
14'
⚽
1–1
Oumar Diakité
Goal confirmed
15'
🖵
Oumar Diakité
assist: Jon Gorenc Stanković
18'
⚽
2–1
⚽
2–2
29'
Leandro Morgalla
assist: Bartosz Mazurek
▮
32'
Red Card
HT 2–2
▮
55'
Soumaïla Diabaté
Yellow Card
⇄
59'
Soumaïla Diabaté
⇄ Yorbe Vertessen
Jacob Hödl
⇄ Valmir Matoshi
66'
⇄
⚽
2–3
67'
Damir Redzic
assist: Yorbe Vertessen
Jon Gorenc Stanković
assist: Arjan Malić
70'
⚽
3–3
⚽
3–4
74'
Jesper Lindstrøm
assist: Abubakr Barry
Arjan Malić
Yellow Card
75'
▮
▮
77'
Haris Tabaković
Yellow Card
Jurgen Heil
⇄ Gizo Mamageishvili
77'
⇄
⇄
77'
Damir Redzic
⇄ Edmund Baidoo
Simon Seidl
⇄ Seedy Jatta
78'
⇄
⇄
85'
Jesper Lindstrøm
⇄ Umut Tohumcu
⇄
85'
Leandro Morgalla
⇄ A. Chase
▮
89'
Umut Tohumcu
Yellow Card
L. Balbo
⇄ Albert Vallci
89'
⇄
FT 3–4
Sturm Graz
Match Stats
Red Bull Salzburg
46%
Ball Possession
54%
0.97
Expected Goals (xG)
2.15
12
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
5
5
Shots off Goal
3
2
Blocked Shots
5
7
Shots insidebox
9
5
Shots outsidebox
4
1
Corner Kicks
2
5
Offsides
3
10
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
326
Total passes
394
216
Passes accurate
291
16
Free Kicks
10
Sturm Graz
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oumar Diakité F | 8.8 | 90' | 2 | – | 4 | 12 (10%) | 2 |
| 4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M | 7.6 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 35 (26%) | 2 |
| 28 Jurgen Heil M | 6.4 | 77' | – | 1 | – | 25 (14%) | 3 |
| 20 Seedy Jatta F | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 4 (1%) | 1 |
| 5 Albert Vallci D | 6.1 | 1' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 78 Valmir Matoshi M | 6.0 | 24' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | 2 |
| 23 Arjan Malić D | 5.8 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 42 (29%) | 2 |
| 39 Luca Weinhandl M | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 29 (17%) | 6 |
| 43 Jacob Hödl M | 5.7 | 66' | – | – | 2 | 12 (6%) | – |
| 15 Gizo Mamageishvili M | 5.7 | 13' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 2 Joshua Quarshie D | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (29%) | 1 |
| 30 Paul Koller D | 5.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 40 (27%) | – |
| 27 L. Balbo M | 5.4 | 89' | – | – | – | 23 (14%) | – |
| 19 Simon Seidl M | 5.2 | 78' | – | – | – | 22 (13%) | – |
| 22 Ammar Helac G | 5.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (17%) | – |
Red Bull Salzburg
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Bartosz Mazurek M | 7.9 | 90' | – | 2 | 1 | 29 (24%) | 2 |
| 9 Haris Tabaković F | 7.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 23 (16%) | – |
| 11 Yorbe Vertessen F | 7.2 | 31' | – | 1 | 1 | 7 (6%) | – |
| 32 Abubakr Barry M | 7.0 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 55 (42%) | 6 |
| 23 Damir Redzic M | 7.0 | 77' | 1 | – | 2 | 19 (12%) | – |
| 39 Leandro Morgalla D | 6.9 | 85' | 1 | – | 1 | 28 (22%) | 1 |
| 20 Edmund Baidoo F | 6.9 | 13' | – | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
| 35 Jesper Lindstrøm M | 6.7 | 85' | 1 | – | 4 | 25 (17%) | 1 |
| 21 Tim Drexler D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (30%) | 1 |
| 52 Christian Zawieschitzky G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (17%) | – |
| 13 Frans Krätzig D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (36%) | 2 |
| 47 Valentin Zabransky D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (30%) | – |
| 91 A. Chase D | 6.0 | 5' | – | – | – | 3 (1%) | – |
| 7 Umut Tohumcu M | 5.8 | 5' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | 2 |
| 5 Soumaïla Diabaté M | 5.6 | 59' | – | – | – | 32 (27%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (41%)
At a glance
Our lean
Red Bull Salzburg or draw
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Sturm Graz
LLDLD
Red Bull Salzburg
WLWWW
Last 3 meetings
Sturm Graz · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
In this Bundesliga clash, Sturm Graz will face Red Bull Salzburg, who currently lead the league with a strong offensive record. Salzburg averages 2.5 goals per match, showcasing their attacking prowess, while Sturm Graz has struggled defensively, conceding 1.7 goals per game. The matchup will heavily depend on Sturm's ability to contain Salzburg's dynamic forwards and convert their chances, as they average just 1.4 goals per match. This contest promises to be pivotal for both teams as they vie for crucial points in the league standings.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
34%
10%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
41%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Sturm Graz
O. Diakité
7 gls
Red Bull Salzburg
H. Tabaković
7 gls
K. Konaté
4 gls
Y. Vertessen
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
0
Sturm Graz Wins
2
Draws
1
Red Bull Salzburg Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 - 0 | Sturm Graz |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Sturm Graz | 1 - 1 | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Sturm Graz | 1 - 1 | Red Bull Salzburg |
Sturm Graz — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Red Bull Salzburg | L | 3 - 4 |
| 05 Nov | H Celje | L | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Wolfsberger AC | D | 1 - 1 |
| 29 Oct | A Austria Lustenau | L | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Ried | D | 2 - 2 |
Red Bull Salzburg — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Sturm Graz | W | 3 - 4 |
| 05 Nov | A Anderlecht | L | 2 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | H Austria Lustenau | W | 5 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | A Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | W | 2 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | A Lask Linz | W | 1 - 3 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rapid Vienna
|
12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 33 |
| 2 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 27 |
| 3 |
Lask Linz
|
12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |
Sturm Graz
|
11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |
TSV Hartberg
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 |
Ried
|
12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 |
WSG Wattens
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 |
Austria Lustenau
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 |
SCR Altach
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 |
Grazer AK
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 10 |
| 11 |
Austria Vienna
|
11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 7 |
| 12 |
Wolfsberger AC
|
12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 6 |
Red Bull Salzburg
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: D. Röhl
52
Zawieschitzky
13
Krätzig
47
Zabransky
21
Drexler
39
Morgalla
5
Diabaté
32
Barry
35
Lindstrøm
15
Mazurek
23
Redzic
9
Tabaković
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | Christian Zawieschitzky | G |
| 39 | L. Morgalla | D |
| 21 | T. Drexler | D |
| 47 | Valentin Zabransky | D |
| 13 | F. Krätzig | D |
| 32 | A. Barry | M |
| 5 | S. Diabaté | M |
| 23 | D. Redzic | M |
| 15 | B. Mazurek | M |
| 35 | J. Lindstrøm | M |
| 9 | H. Tabaković | F |
Substitutes
| 20 | E. Baidoo | F |
| 91 | A. Chase | D |
| 30 | G. Diakité | F |
| 1 | C. Früchtl | G |
| 19 | K. Konaté | F |
| 22 | S. Lainer | D |
| 7 | U. Tohumcu | M |
| 48 | L. Traoré | D |
| 11 | Y. Vertessen | F |
Sturm Graz
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
22
Helac
30
Koller
2
Quarshie
23
Malic
27
Balbo
4
Stankovič
39
Weinhandl
28
Heil
43
Hödl
19
Seidl
14
Diakité
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | A. Helac | G |
| 23 | A. Malic | D |
| 2 | J. Quarshie | D |
| 30 | P. Koller | D |
| 28 | J. Heil | M |
| 39 | Luca Weinhandl | M |
| 4 | J. Gorenc Stankovič | M |
| 27 | L. Balbo | M |
| 19 | S. Seidl | M |
| 43 | Jacob Peter Hödl | M |
| 14 | O. Diakité | F |
Substitutes
| 26 | B. Beganović | F |
| 40 | J. Halwachs | M |
| 20 | S. Jatta | F |
| 15 | G. Mamageishvili | M |
| 78 | V. Matoshi | M |
| 21 | P. Petrović | D |
| 1 | Adam Stejskal | G |
| 5 | A. Vallci | D |
| 17 | S. Włodarczyk | F |