Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

12 Sep 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Lask Linz

Away

Merkur Arena, Graz

AI call Difficult Sturm Graz win or draw

57%

25%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 57% chance of winning, Lask Linz 19% and the draw 25%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:54.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.7%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Sturm Graz

LDWWW

Lask Linz

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Sturm Graz · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the Bundesliga matchup between Sturm Graz and LASK Linz, both teams are currently vying for critical points early in the season. Sturm Graz has shown solid form with a strong home record, while LASK Linz has been competitive but inconsistent on the road. Key players to watch include Sturm Graz's attacking spearhead, who averages 0.5 goals per game, and LASK's midfield general, contributing significantly to possession stats. This clash could hinge on Sturm Graz's ability to exploit their attacking opportunities, while LASK will need to tighten their defense to secure a positive result.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

57%

45%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lask Linz goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	6	4	3	1
1	8	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	7	3	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Sturm Graz goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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Players in form

Sturm Graz

S. Włodarczyk 1 gls

E. Soglo 0 gls

Lask Linz

S. Adeniran 2 gls

C. Lang 1 gls

M. Bogarde 0 gls

K. Jørgensen 0 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	3.9%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
1	8.5%	11.7%	5.4%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.6%	10.1%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
3	6.3%	6.6%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.1%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sturm Graz	Draw	Lask Linz
Sturm Graz	36.1%	3.8%	1.2%
Draw	19.0%	14.6%	7.0%
Lask Linz	3.1%	4.2%	10.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz

2 Sturm Graz Wins

0 Draws

1 Lask Linz Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Nov 2025	Sturm Graz	1 - 3	Lask Linz
01 Aug 2025	Lask Linz	0 - 2	Sturm Graz
16 Mar 2025	Sturm Graz	4 - 2	Lask Linz

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Sturm Graz — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	A Fenerbahçe	L	2 - 0
01 Aug	A WSG Wattens	D	1 - 1
28 Jul	A Heart Of Midlothian	W	0 - 2
24 Jul	A Seekirchen	W	0 - 3
21 Jul	H Heart Of Midlothian	W	4 - 0

Lask Linz — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 Jul	H Grazer AK	W	3 - 0
25 Jul	A Kalsdorf	W	0 - 7
14 Jul	H Fenerbahçe	L	1 - 2
09 Jul	A FC Ingolstadt 04	L	2 - 0
03 Jul	A Dynamo Kyiv	L	2 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Wolfsberger AC	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
2	Lask Linz	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
3	SCR Altach	2	1	0	1	3	2	+1	3
4	Rapid Vienna	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
5	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
6	Ried	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
7	Austria Lustenau	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
8	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
9	WSG Wattens	2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1
10	TSV Hartberg	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
11	Grazer AK	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0
12	Austria Vienna	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.