Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

22 Aug 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Austria Lustenau

Away

Merkur Arena, Graz

AI call Too close to call

57%

24%

18%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 57% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau 18% and the draw 24%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:54.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.4%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

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Sturm Graz

LDWWW

Austria Lustenau

DWLWW

Last 3 meetings Sturm Graz · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Sturm Graz enters the match against Austria Lustenau with a solid home record, having secured 70% of their points at home last season. Their offensive line, characterized by a goal conversion rate of 15%, poses a significant threat to Lustenau's defense, which struggled against top-tier teams, conceding an average of 2 goals per game in previous encounters. Austria Lustenau will need to improve their defensive organization and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities to compete effectively. As both teams aim to secure vital points early in the season, this matchup promises to be competitive.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Austria Lustenau goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	4	3	1
1	8	11	5	2	1
2	10	10	5	2	1
3	6	7	4	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Sturm Graz goals · most likely 1–1 (11.4%)

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Players in form

Sturm Graz

S. Włodarczyk 1 gls

E. Soglo 0 gls

Austria Lustenau

D. Weixelbraun 1 gls

Danilo Soares 0 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

24%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

24%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

58%

65%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	3.7%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
1	8.2%	11.4%	5.4%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.5%	10.1%	5.4%	1.9%	0.5%
3	6.4%	6.7%	3.6%	1.3%	0.3%
4	3.2%	3.4%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sturm Graz	Draw	Austria Lustenau
Sturm Graz	35.7%	3.5%	1.1%
Draw	19.7%	14.3%	6.5%
Austria Lustenau	3.5%	4.6%	11.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

41%

1.5

59%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

3 Sturm Graz Wins

0 Draws

0 Austria Lustenau Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Nov 2023	Sturm Graz	2 - 0	Austria Lustenau
19 Aug 2023	Austria Lustenau	0 - 1	Sturm Graz
04 Mar 2023	Austria Lustenau	0 - 2	Sturm Graz

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Sturm Graz — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	A Fenerbahçe	L	2 - 0
01 Aug	A WSG Wattens	D	1 - 1
28 Jul	A Heart Of Midlothian	W	0 - 2
24 Jul	A Seekirchen	W	0 - 3
21 Jul	H Heart Of Midlothian	W	4 - 0

Austria Lustenau — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	H Ried	D	1 - 1
25 Jul	A Krems / Rehberg	W	0 - 1
16 Jul	A Nürnberg II	L	1 - 0
10 Jul	H FC Aarau	W	1 - 0
20 Mar	A Floridsdorfer AC	W	0 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Wolfsberger AC	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
2	Lask Linz	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
3	SCR Altach	2	1	0	1	3	2	+1	3
4	Rapid Vienna	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
5	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
6	Ried	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
7	Austria Lustenau	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
8	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
9	WSG Wattens	2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1
10	TSV Hartberg	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
11	Grazer AK	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0
12	Austria Vienna	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.