FC Thun vs FC Lugano Prediction

Super League · Regular Season - 11

24 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

FC Lugano

Away

Stockhorn Arena, Thun

AI call Difficult FC Thun win or draw

59%

25%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction: Sportiko gives FC Thun a 59% chance of winning, FC Lugano 16% and the draw 25%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.8%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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FC Thun

WLLLD

FC Lugano

WWDWW

Last 3 meetings FC Thun · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

FC Thun faces FC Lugano in a Super League clash on October 24, 2026. Thun's performance at home has been solid, with an average of 1.5 goals scored per match this season, while their defense has conceded 1.2 goals. In contrast, Lugano has struggled on the road, averaging only 0.8 goals scored per away game. Both teams have shown variability in their recent form, but Thun's offensive capability may give them the edge in this matchup. Key players to watch include Thun’s leading scorer and Lugano’s top playmaker, whose performances could be pivotal.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

59%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

16%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Lugano goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	10	12	5	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	7	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1	1

↑ FC Thun goals · most likely 1–1 (11.8%)

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Players in form

FC Thun

B. Labeau 3 gls

FC Lugano

D. Moncada 3 gls

H. Delcroix 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

78% Home (No Draw) 22% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

59% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 16% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	4.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
1	10.0%	11.8%	4.8%	1.5%	0.3%
2	10.9%	10.1%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
3	7.0%	6.4%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
4	3.4%	3.1%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Thun	Draw	FC Lugano
FC Thun	37.9%	3.6%	1.0%
Draw	19.8%	15.2%	6.4%
FC Lugano	2.8%	4.0%	9.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Thun vs FC Lugano

1 FC Thun Wins

0 Draws

2 FC Lugano Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	FC Lugano	1 - 0	FC Thun
22 Nov 2025	FC Thun	0 - 1	FC Lugano
27 Jul 2025	FC Lugano	1 - 2	FC Thun

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FC Thun — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A FC Vaduz	W	1 - 2
16 Sep	H Servette FC	L	2 - 4
12 Sep	H Grasshoppers	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A FC Sion	L	3 - 2
02 Sep	H Lausanne	D	0 - 0

FC Lugano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lausanne	W	0 - 4
16 Sep	H FC ST. Gallen	W	4 - 1
12 Sep	H BSC Young Boys	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A FC Basel 1893	W	1 - 3
03 Sep	H Servette FC	W	1 - 0

Super League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	9	8	1	0	27	7	+20	25
2	BSC Young Boys	9	5	4	0	31	18	+13	19
3	FC Sion	9	6	1	2	23	14	+9	19
4	FC Basel 1893	9	4	1	4	17	17	0	13
5	FC ST. Gallen	9	4	1	4	16	19	-3	13
6	FC Luzern	9	3	3	3	17	18	-1	12
7	FC Zurich	9	3	2	4	14	20	-6	11
8	Servette FC	9	3	1	5	11	13	-2	10
9	FC Thun	9	3	1	5	15	23	-8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	2	2	5	13	24	-11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	2	0	7	18	21	-3	6
12	Lausanne	9	1	3	5	7	15	-8	6

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.