Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction
FT
Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
AI call
Difficult Aberdeen win or draw
51%
27%
22%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction: Sportiko gives Aberdeen a 51% chance of winning, ST Mirren 22% and the draw 27%. Last updated 17 Oct 2026, 15:54.
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Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- 1st Half Home or Draw 76%
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Timeline
Bradley Lyons
assist: Connor Ronan
2'
⚽
1–0
▮
31'
R. Carr
Yellow Card
⚽
1–1
42'
Eseosa Sule
assist: Killian Phillips
Connor Ronan
⇄ Stuart Armstrong
45'
⇄
Bradley Lyons
⇄ Tony Yogane
45'
⇄
HT 1–1
▮
56'
P. Nsio
Yellow Card
Kevin Nisbet
Missed Penalty
58'
✗
Kevin Nisbet
58'
⚽
2–1
Tony Yogane
Penalty confirmed
58'
🖵
⇄
59'
L. Thomas
⇄ Samu
⇄
67'
P. Nsio
⇄ F. Taylor
Toyosi Olusanya
⇄ Ayoub Mouloua
71'
⇄
Ayoub Mouloua
assist: Afeez Aremu
72'
⚽
3–1
⇄
74'
Eseosa Sule
⇄ Jake Young
Lewis Smith
⇄ E. Gyamfi
76'
⇄
Stuart Armstrong
Yellow Card
77'
▮
Kevin Nisbet
⇄ Findlay Marshall
90+3'
⇄
FT 3–1
Aberdeen
Match Stats
ST Mirren
34%
Ball Possession
66%
2.33
Expected Goals (xG)
0.9
17
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
7
4
Shots off Goal
2
6
Blocked Shots
4
10
Shots insidebox
8
7
Shots outsidebox
5
2
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
0
18
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
274
Total passes
544
202
Passes accurate
449
15
Free Kicks
18
Aberdeen
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Marius Müller G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (17%) | – |
| 9 Ayoub Mouloua F | 7.7 | 19' | 1 | – | 2 | 9 (6%) | 1 |
| 8 Bradley Lyons M | 7.6 | 46' | 1 | – | 1 | 14 (9%) | – |
| 32 Afeez Aremu M | 7.4 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 31 (27%) | 3 |
| 15 Kevin Nisbet F | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 7 | 12 (7%) | 1 |
| 24 Nesta Guinness-Walker D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | 1 |
| 25 Connor Ronan M | 6.8 | 46' | – | 1 | 1 | 13 (9%) | – |
| 23 Lewis Mayo D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (25%) | 1 |
| 11 Lewis Smith M | 6.6 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 15 (8%) | 3 |
| 7 Tony Yogane F | 6.5 | 44' | – | – | 3 | 6 (4%) | – |
| 17 Stuart Armstrong M | 6.4 | 44' | – | – | – | 22 (18%) | – |
| 5 Mats Knoester D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | 2 |
| 28 Christopher Cadden D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (16%) | 2 |
| 20 Toyosi Olusanya M | 6.2 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 13 (12%) | – |
| 77 E. Gyamfi D | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
ST Mirren
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Eseosa Sule F | 7.5 | 74' | 1 | – | 3 | 5 (2%) | 1 |
| 88 Killian Phillips F | 7.4 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 30 (29%) | – |
| 1 J. Chapman G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (33%) | – |
| 16 L. Thomas M | 6.6 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 27 (21%) | 1 |
| 22 M. Fraser D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 69 (63%) | 1 |
| 20 Jake Young F | 6.4 | 16' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 13 Alexander Gogić D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 63 (53%) | 1 |
| 3 Declan John D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 76 (64%) | 1 |
| 30 F. Taylor M | 6.1 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 23 (19%) | – |
| 47 Calvin Ramsay D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 53 (42%) | 2 |
| 8 R. Carr M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 63 (53%) | 5 |
| 19 Ismeal Kabia M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 24 (18%) | 2 |
| 10 Samu M | 5.6 | 31' | – | – | – | 17 (12%) | 2 |
| 48 P. Nsio M | 5.5 | 67' | – | – | – | 36 (26%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (51%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Aberdeen win or draw
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Aberdeen
LLLLW
ST Mirren
LLDWL
Last 3 meetings
Aberdeen · 1W 1D 1L
Match summary
Aberdeen faces St Mirren in a crucial Premiership clash. Historically, Aberdeen has demonstrated a strong home record, capitalizing on their attacking prowess, averaging over 1.5 goals per game this season. St Mirren, however, has been resilient defensively, boasting a solid away record with several key clean sheets. The match could hinge on Aberdeen's ability to break down St Mirren's defense, while St Mirren will likely aim to exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts. This tactical battle will be pivotal in determining the outcome.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
51%
45%
Draw
27%
45%
Away
22%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Aberdeen
K. Nisbet
4 gls
ST Mirren
K. Phillips
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
1
Aberdeen Wins
1
Draws
1
ST Mirren Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 2026 | ST Mirren | 2 - 0 | Aberdeen |
| 03 Dec 2025 | Aberdeen | 3 - 3 | ST Mirren |
| 18 Oct 2025 | ST Mirren | 0 - 1 | Aberdeen |
Aberdeen — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Hibernian | L | 0 - 4 |
| 31 Oct | A Rangers | L | 1 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | H Falkirk | L | 0 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | A Dundee Utd | L | 3 - 2 |
| 17 Oct | H ST Mirren | W | 3 - 1 |
ST Mirren — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Rangers | L | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | A Motherwell | L | 1 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | H Hibernian | D | 1 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | H Dundee | W | 2 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | A Aberdeen | L | 3 - 1 |
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Celtic
|
12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 10 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 |
Rangers
|
12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 |
Heart Of Midlothian
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |
Falkirk
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 |
Dundee
|
12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |
Dundee Utd
|
12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 |
ST Johnstone
|
13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 |
ST Mirren
|
13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 |
Motherwell
|
13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 |
Hibernian
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |
Aberdeen
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 |
Kilmarnock
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 9 |
ST Mirren
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Eva Olid
1
Chapman
3
John
22
Fraser
13
Gogić
47
Ramsay
19
Kabia
48
Nsio
8
Carr
16
Thomas
88
Phillips
9
Sule
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Chapman | G |
| 47 | C. Ramsay | D |
| 13 | A. Gogić | D |
| 22 | M. Fraser | D |
| 3 | D. John | D |
| 16 | L. Thomas | M |
| 8 | R. Carr | M |
| 48 | P. Nsio | M |
| 19 | Ismeal Kabia | M |
| 9 | Eseosa Sule | F |
| 88 | K. Phillips | F |
Substitutes
| 4 | L. Donnelly | M |
| 53 | Henry Fieldson | D |
| 6 | Louis Jackson | D |
| 37 | C. McEvoy | M |
| 23 | C. Mochrie | M |
| 10 | Samu | M |
| 30 | F. Taylor | M |
| 35 | Grant Tamosevicius | G |
| 20 | J. Young | F |
Aberdeen
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: S. Robinson
27
Müller
24
Guinness-Walker
5
Knoester
23
Mayo
28
Cadden
32
Aremu
8
Lyons
20
Olusanya
25
Ronan
11
Smith
15
Nisbet
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | M. Müller | G |
| 28 | C. Cadden | D |
| 23 | L. Mayo | D |
| 5 | M. Knoester | D |
| 24 | N. Guinness-Walker | D |
| 8 | B. Lyons | M |
| 32 | A. Aremu | M |
| 11 | Lewis Smith | M |
| 25 | C. Ronan | M |
| 20 | T. Olusanya | M |
| 15 | K. Nisbet | F |
Substitutes
| 17 | S. Armstrong | M |
| 77 | E. Gyamfi | D |
| 26 | D. Happe | D |
| 30 | D. Klein | G |
| 40 | F. Marshall | M |
| 22 | J. Milne | D |
| 21 | G. Molloy | D |
| 9 | A. Mouloua | F |
| 7 | Tony Yogane | F |