Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 11

17 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

FC Orenburg

Away

AI call Too close to call

39%

29%

32%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg prediction: Sportiko gives Rodina Moskva a 39% chance of winning, FC Orenburg 32% and the draw 29%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Rodina Moskva

DLLLL

FC Orenburg

DLDDD

Match summary

Rodina Moskva faces FC Orenburg in a crucial Premier League matchup. Rodina has shown solid home form, securing 60% of their points at home this season. In contrast, FC Orenburg has struggled on the road, with only two wins out of six away fixtures. Key players to watch include Rodina's top scorer, who has netted 5 goals in the last 7 matches, and Orenburg's goalkeeper, who has made an average of 4 saves per match. This encounter will likely hinge on Rodina's ability to capitalize on their home advantage and Orenburg's capacity to adapt to their travel struggles.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

39%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

32%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Orenburg goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	5	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Rodina Moskva goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Players in form

Rodina Moskva

A. Maksimenko 3 gls

FC Orenburg

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

32%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

32%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

39% Home Scores More 32% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	6.6%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
1	7.5%	13.6%	7.9%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.7%	8.8%	5.8%	2.6%	0.8%
3	3.3%	4.3%	2.9%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.2%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rodina Moskva	Draw	FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva	23.6%	4.6%	2.0%
Draw	14.3%	17.3%	12.3%
FC Orenburg	2.3%	4.6%	19.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Rodina Moskva — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 Sep	H Rubin	D	1 - 1
11 Sep	A Krylia Sovetov	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Dinamo Makhachkala	L	2 - 0
02 Sep	A Spartak Moscow	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	H Baltika	L	0 - 3

FC Orenburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
17 Sep	H FC Krasnodar	D	0 - 0
12 Sep	A Dynamo	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Akron	D	2 - 2
02 Sep	H Rubin	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Spartak Moscow	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Krasnodar	9	6	3	0	14	7	+7	21
2	Dynamo	9	6	1	2	14	8	+6	19
3	CSKA Moscow	9	5	4	0	15	9	+6	19
4	Spartak Moscow	9	6	1	2	16	7	+9	19
5	Zenit	9	6	0	3	19	9	+10	18
6	Rubin	9	2	6	1	12	11	+1	12
7	Dinamo Makhachkala	9	4	0	5	15	16	-1	12
8	Baltika	9	3	2	4	14	12	+2	11
9	Krylia Sovetov	9	2	5	2	13	14	-1	11
10	Akhmat	9	2	4	3	13	13	0	10
11	FC Orenburg	9	1	6	2	7	10	-3	9
12	FC Rostov	9	2	2	5	10	17	-7	8
13	Akron	9	1	5	3	11	18	-7	8
14	Lokomotiv	9	1	4	4	8	11	-3	7
15	Rodina Moskva	9	1	2	6	10	22	-12	5
16	Fakel	9	0	3	6	6	13	-7	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.